posted on Feb, 22 2008 @ 01:24 PM
There's another factor at work here, that being the US Federal Government deficit.
Money is just like any other commodity, its value is determined by supply and demand. There's only so much money out there available for
borrowing. So when the government borrows $200B to finance its debt, that's $200B that is no longer available in the consumer debt market. As a
result the supply curve shifts to the left and the cost of borrowing increases...you get higher interest rates.
This is known as the 'crowding out' effect of deficit spending in economics.
As for the Fed's lowering of rates, its mainly about keeping the financial markets happy at this point. They like lower rates, because its a sign
that the Fed is not concerned about inflation and supports a loose monetary policy that makes borrowing new capital easier (presumably). It does
help consumers as well, at least to a point. Real rates would likely be even higher if the Fed kept the Fed funds rate steady.
However, what you say is also true about the connection between central bank rates and currency values. If the Fed issues new treasuries at a
lower interest rate than before, it is less attractive to foreign investors who can get a better return elsewhere. And so, demand for dollars to
buy those treasuries declines. If demand for dollars declines, so does the dollar's value in international currency markets.