Sandia National Labs New Computer Model of the Tunguska Event

Could the mystery of the Tunguska event in 1908 have been solved by Sandia's supercomputer?

This new analysis claims that the event was caused by a small asteroid and that the blast which has been claimed to be as high as 20 megatons was more likely in the 3-5 megaton range.

Sandia supercomputers offer new explanation of Tunguska disaster

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — The stunning amount of forest devastation at Tunguska a century ago in Siberia may have been caused by an asteroid only a fraction as large as previously published estimates, Sandia National Laboratories supercomputer simulations suggest.

“The asteroid that caused the extensive damage was much smaller than we had thought,” says Sandia principal investigator Mark Boslough of the impact that occurred June 30, 1908. “That such a small object can do this kind of destruction suggests that smaller asteroids are something to consider. Their smaller size indicates such collisions are not as improbable as we had believed.”

I don't know if this latest information brings us closer to the truth, but I wonder if it could be an attempt to raise more awareness of the smaller objects in space, which might help to get more funding for the NEO projects at NASA.

What's your take this information?


For a comparison on how different this computer model is take a look at this article discussing an Italian effort to explain the event:

In Search of the Tunguska Meteorite

...The scientists from the University of Bologna hypothesize that the cosmic body made a “soft crash” in the marsh terrain, splashing on the soft, swampy soil and melting the underlying permafrost layer, releasing carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane. This broadened the hole caused by the crash, and explains the shape and size of Lake Cheko's basin, which is unusual for an impact crater. So far, this is the only hypothesis that accounts for the unique, funnel-like morphology of the lake’s basin. According to the Italian team, only the topmost, one-meter-deep layer of debris actually came from the inflowing river. The deeper sediments predate 1908 and they were the target over which the impact took place, meaning Lake Cheko is only one century old...

ED: added article for comparison


[edit on 12/19/2007 by JacKatMtn]

If this info is indeed accurate, perhaps we need to redefine what size space object we consider dangerous and worth monitoring....

They are now saying the initial blast was probably 25% of that first thought, would probably indicate an object much smaller than first thought...

My initial question is are we capable of monitoring small NEO's like this, and if so, is there anything we can do about them if they do stray too close and what sort of lead time we would have to any impact ?

Nice work JacKatMtn as always

Peace

reply to post by Rilence


I remember that there was some congressional hearings very recently concerning NASA, NEO monitoring and closing of the observatory in Puerto Rico.

If I recall correctly NASA was saying how most of the NEO money was being moved towards the next moon mission, something about building a station on the moon and launching space explorations from the lunar surface?

Then this article comes out and it seems to have been timed to angle for more funding.

I find these days that I cannot read any article, especially reports from the government or those associated with the government, without trying to figure out what could be behind the information.

I blame ATS I will never look at the news the same way again

Hopefully that is a good thing.....

Yeah, it seems the priorities space wise for the mid term are focused on the big news stuff...

Go to the moon, maybe go to mars....Tough if a 100m piece of rock wipes out a major city....

Hmmm...Somehow, methinks keeping a close watch on these critters isn't going to create a huge dent in the cost of the "program"

I see a real need to keep it up in light of that article you posted...It's clear objects far smaller than we thought could easily have huge consequences if they hit in populated areas...

Of course, in no way do I expect to the US to do this alone financially...Any country that is able should chip in a % per year to keep watch...

This can only benefit everyone IMHO...

Yea man ATS has made both of us kinda schizo jumpy

Seriously tho, you have been a gun over the last 12 mths posting some awesome breaking news together with Aninga and anyone else I've missed...Sorry

Peace and thanks again for posting man My best to you and yours over the festive season and for 2008

Originally posted by JacKatMtn
If I recall correctly NASA was saying how most of the NEO money was being moved towards the next moon mission

But in essense, it was sucked into a black hole of cosmic proportions, which is the Iraq war. Pretty pathetic of the govt to ignore the very real rocks that have the potential to change climate or just plain nuke the metro area.

I dont care what they claim
from everything I've read and what I know from study I still think Tesla caused it by accident.
Tesla Wireless and the Tunguska Explosion

reply to post by DaddyBare


Interesting theory concerning Tesla, though I would think this couldn't have been kept a secret for so long, could it?

It is disturbing that after all of these years researchers have not found much in the way of meteoric debris, if my memory serves.

Maybe the next investigation in the nearby lake will yield some clues.

reply to post by JacKatMtn

It is disturbing that after all of these years researchers have not found much in the way of meteoric debris, if my memory serves.

I remember coming across this news article earlier this year although there does not seem to any proof as to where this lump of rock really came from I wonder why it dissapeared.

Moscow - Russian police were combing the northern Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk on Friday for a three-ton meteorite that has disappeared from under the nose of its keepers.

The giant rock was stolen from the yard of the Tunguska Space Event foundation, whose director said it was the part of meteor that caused a massive explosion in Siberia in 1908, news agency Interfax reported.

"It winds up that it disappeared back in June, when the foundation was moving out of its old building," a police spokesperson told the agency

Source

reply to post by sherpa


This story isn't working for me, if this meteorite was supposed to be part of the Tunguska event , why would it be outside in a yard ready for the taking?

The article also says the director also claimed that he found the remains of an alien spacecraft during his expedition.

Has anyone seen this wreckage?

I don't know, the more you dig into this story the wilder it becomes.

Yeah I know but here is my take if you have a place called "The Tunguska Space Event foundation" and are strapped for cash you have to create a little interest.

Afterall it is in Russia and the original report may have come from Pravda.

Anyway the last time I read a little on Tunguska I am sure it was stated there was no crater but was more like an airburst.

As to your OP maybe the focus is coming away from terrorism now and just beginning to ramp up on possible meteorite impact events.

Just a thought

I remember reading this a few years ago.

Another theory probably the most 'out there' but nonetheless a good read if your interested in the topic. This would also seem to support a 'air blast' and not a direct impact.

(article 1 begins talking bout another place in Russia keep reading on to part 2 to see bout tunguska the article is from nexus magazine....which is not exactly as well known as say sandia

[edit on 20-12-2007 by 911fnord]

[edit on 20-12-2007 by 911fnord]

JacKat...There was a recent Archy report of a find of the dust from air-burst meteor covering that reigon to a measurable radius,...Sorry dont have a link...

reply to post by DaddyBare


Thanks for the informative link to that, very interesting read.

The thing that bugs me about the whole meteorite (if that is the case) being smaller than previously thought is what happens when something like this happens again to a developing country with nuclear capabilities? I would imagine that some governments wouldn't take the time to confirm if it was a meteorite or a nuke and do something everyone would regret. That right there scares the bejezus out of me.

reply to post by JacKatMtn


Concerning this report coming at a perfect time for a bigger budget to track neos, well that just doesn't shock or surprise me in the least. I'm sure a lot of people are considering that to be the case at least partially.

Some forty odd years ago I read an account of this incident which stated that late night revellers in Paris had seen an enormous cylindrical/cigar shaped craft on fire high in the night sky heading towards Russia.
I cannot now recall which book or journal that it appeared in, but it might be worth plotting the course from Paris to Tunguska and see if there is any correllation between the trajectory described and the actual visible damaged area.
Just a thought.
Regards,
Horsegiver.

Weatherman says remember what Nazi rocket genius Wernher von Braun warned about weaponisation of space.

1st: Russians
2nd: Terrorists / Rogue Nations
3rd: Asteroid threats

Weatherman thinks it's possible that this latest 'discovery' could simply be another step to the US weaponisation of space ala SDI.

reply to post by sherpa


I think it's more a case of it was assumed to be an air burst because no crater was identified and the way the tree trunks fell/stood.

Perhaps there was an air burst and some surviving fragments went on to make a crater. If that is so, then the size of the object may have been significantly underestimated.

There is a theory that the event may even have caused global warming by disturbing the atmosphere, which lends weight to the theory that the size of this event and of the object itself may have been underestimated:

Shaidurov has used a detailed analysis of the mean temperature change by year for the last 140 years and explains that there was a slight decrease in temperature until the early twentieth century. This flies in the face of current global warming theories that blame a rise in temperature on rising carbon dioxide emissions since the start of the industrial revolution. Shaidurov, however, suggests that the rise, which began between 1906 and 1909, could have had a very different cause, which he believes was the massive Tunguska Event, which rocked a remote part of Siberia, northwest of Lake Baikal on the 30th June 1908.

Source