FOIA: Indentification of the 1997-08-16 Kara Sea event

KARA_SEA_EVENT.pdf
Indentification of the 1997-08-16 Kara Sea event
The TEXAR blind test and indentification of the 1997-08-16 Kara Sea event. Comprehensive test ban treaty.
Document date: 1998-03-31
Department: ENSCO, Inc.
Author: Douglas Baumgardt
Document type: report
pages: 78


Archivist's Notes: A good quality document. Form 298 cover page. Unclassified.

TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Special Event Discrimination Analysis: The Texar Blind Test and Identification of the August 16, 1997 Kara Sea Event.

AUTHOR: Douglas Baumgardt

PERFORMING ORGANIZATION:
ENSCO, Inc.
5400 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22152-2301

SPONSORING AGENCY:
Air Force Research Laboratory
29 Randolph Road
Hanscom AFB, MA 01731-3010

SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES: This research was sponsored by the Dept of Energy, Office of Non-Proliferation & National Security, Washington DC 20585

ABSTRACT: The International Monitoring System (IMS) for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) faces the serious challenge of being able to accurately and reliably identify seismic events in any region of the world. Extensive research has been performed in recent years on developing discrimination techniques which appear to classify seismic events into broad categories of source types, such as nuclear explosion, earthquake, and mine blast. This report examines in detail the problem of effectiveness of the regional discrimination procedures in the application of waveform discriminants to Special Event identification and the issue of discriminant transportability.

This report is divided into three parts:

1) INTRODUCTION

Talks about the challenges of reliably identifying seismic regions in any region of the world, and the techniques used in identifying the source of these quakes i.e. nuclear explosion, earthquake, mine blast.

Addressing an event that cannot be quickly identified using screening methods or "Special Event," is important, and would require more in-detail analysis.

2) A BLIND TEST OF SEISMIC EVENT DISCRIMINATION PROCEDURES FROM THE TEXAR CHALLENGE

This section presents the results of a blind-test study, arranged by Professor Eugene Herrin of Southern Methodist University, in which 20 events of unknown identity were recorded at the TEXAR array in souther Texas.

The study was to use the discrimination techniques in the Intelligent Seismic Event Identification System (ISEIS) to determine how many events could be identified.


3) CHARACTERIZATION OF THE AUGUST 16, 1997 KARA SEA EVENT

Presents the results of the Kara Sea event that occurred near the former Soviet test site at Novaya Zemlya. Because the ARCESS array was down at the time, there was little historical data to be used. However, KEV recorded data from nuclear explosions at Novaya Zemlya, which had similar site and propagation effects. Thus the two stations can be directly compared. Also consideration of a possible underwater explosion (explaining Kara) is pondered given that it was located offshore.

Here again the same document from the Storming Media ($8.95)
ATS got it for free to download

Abstract: The International Monitoring System (IMS) for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) faces the serious challenge of being able to accurately and reliably identify seismic events in any region of the world. Extensive research has been performed in recent years on developing discrimination techniques which appear to classify seismic events into broad categories of source types, such as nuclear explosion, earthquake, and mine blast. This report examines in detail the problem of effectiveness of regional discrimination procedures in the application of waveform discriminants to Special Event identification and the issue of discriminant transportability.

My Note: The Kara Sea event holds similar characteristics to the Vela Incident
check out: FOIA: DCIA memo on the Sep 22, 1979 Vela Satellite event recording a suspected nuclear test

Here a few links:

Arms Control Association

In early November, the CIA announced that the August 16 seismic event located in the general area of the Russian nuclear test site at Novaya Zemlya was not a nuclear explosion. The CIA determination ended speculation as to whether Russia had abandoned its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing and violated international law by defeating the "object and purpose" of the Comprehensive Test Ban (CTB) Treaty, which it has signed. Despite this announcement, however, the agency has not concluded whether the seismic event was an earthquake or an explosion.

New York Times

Civilian scientists are strongly criticizing the Federal Government for saying that a seismic event that rocked the Russian wilds two months ago might have been an underground nuclear blast.
The scientists say the tremor was unquestionably natural in origin, and they suggest that bureaucratic foes of the nuclear test ban treaty are distorting the truth in a bid to torpedo the treaty's ratification in the Senate.

[edit on 13-12-2007 by frozen_snowman]