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"This is an investment-led rally, built on what if something happens," said Darin Newsom, senior analyst at DTN, a commodities research firm in Omaha. "I don't think we've topped out yet."
The poor, who spend a higher share of income on heating, will bear most of the pain, economists said. Though prices have soared, federal fuel assistance has declined. In 2005, when the average price of heating oil in Massachusetts hit $2.49 a gallon, a family of four earning $21,000 qualified for about $1,100 to help cover heating bills, according to Action for Boston Community Development, a nonprofit that administers the program locally.