Hersh: Attack on Iran will usher major war

As a reporter, Seymour Hersh is one of the best. As an analyst, well, that remains to be seen.

Hersh says the planned attack on Iran will ignite a major war, www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk...]according to this article.

Although Hersh in is echoing what many of us here on ATS have been feeling and dreading regarding the impending attack Iran -- this will spiral into WWIII.

While he doesn't finger China or Russia, he does see the Mideast igniting into a major conflageration. And given that it's the cradle of energy for the world, I can't see how Russia and China won't be compelled in the very least to try and enter the fray.

"I see a bad moon risin'...."



[edit on 11/8/2007 by behindthescenes]

If someone was paying me to make an educated prediction, I would argue a World War I-type war is on the way.

The U.S. is in the same position Austria-Hungary was in back in July of 1914 - in crisis. All it takes is one major terrorist attack on U.S. soil or on U.S. interests to light the powder keg. The U.S. will then have every reason, right or wrong, to finger Iran and present an ultimatum: either bring the terrorists to justice or face the consequences.

From that point, things can go one of two ways. Iran will stand up to the U.S. (as it always has) and the U.S., along with NATO, will conduct a preemptive strike, possibly an invasion, on Iran. Or, Iran could premept the West's preemption and invade either Iraq, Kuwait, or even the lucrative United Arab Emirates to seal off the Persian Gulf. The latter would present the more significant challenge, as the U.S. and NATO will have to protect Saudi Arabia from further Iranian advances, all the while protecting the Iraqi/Kuwaiti front and at the same time liberate the UAE. Because of Iran's vital strategic position, any action against them will incur the wrath of Russia, who will say very strenly "don't do it." But we will and we will bring upon us the wrath of the New Russian Bear, better than it ever was. From that point on, we will probably see our strategy of shock and awe turn into one of attrition, and the war will porbably extend into the Caucasus eventually.

As for China, they'll sit this one out early on, but the moment the U.S. shows any signs of overwhelming strength or weakness, they'll pull out all the stops to make the U.S. accountable and honest about their intentions. And strategic nuclear weapons may come into the fold then.

Very good commentry....world fell for it before, might work again...any excuse will do...the staged 'attack' on U.S. soil is the key here.

Originally posted by dave7
Very good commentry....world fell for it before, might work again...any excuse will do...the staged 'attack' on U.S. soil is the key here.

I personally don't think it will be staged. I believe that our involvement in the Middle East will reach a breaking point and some terrorists will go crazy and strike a very high-value target on U.S. soil.

reply to post by sweatmonicaIdo


Although your username is pretty weird, I think you have a great grasp on these things.

I'm smarter after having read your post. Thank you for contributing.

reply to post by sweatmonicaIdo


Awesome post! That was a good one. I understood it and it was easy to follow. You voice a good opinion and I admire.

Thanks,
Cuhail

Originally posted by Enrikez
Although your username is pretty weird, I think you have a great grasp on these things.

I'm smarter after having read your post. Thank you for contributing.

My username actually means nothing to me anymore. I wish I could change it to something that actually meant something to me.

The thing that always gets me is that we are seven years from the 100th anniversary of World War I and all the seeds of the original conflict as well as the state of Austria-Hungary are in place once again. We have the economic side (globalization, dollar hegemony, resource wars, U.S. economic recession), terrorism, and even mass industrial armies (at least in Iran and to a large extent in Russia and China). The battlespace of the Middle East will become Hell on Earth, and there will be untold amounts of suffering and violence without even nukes being used. Our soldiers and Marines will see things that will make them want to get on their knees and cry.

This isn't really related to the specific topic at hand, but one very interesting thing to see would be to see how post-industrial economies affect how countries and societies wage war, or total war. Total war was previously seen as the exclusive offspring of industrialization, command economies, and a powerful state. It would be quite enlightening to see how free market service-based economy, fully globalized, and the state's loss of its monopoly on force will affect World War III. My guess is it will take on a form never seen before or imagined before, I just don't know how.