Galactic Empire in the Future?

My Turn, I believe that we already have secret military space programs that are in full swing.

I would like to see us stpr spending the money on red herring efforts and put our resources into weather control and replenishing our own plant before moving on to others. If you can't successfully manage one planet, then why go on to seed others, kind of reminds me of a dead beat dad kind of mentality.

I think OP's post is actually a little bit too conservative. I think we will have colonized the solar system by century's end, but I also think warp drive will be developed before the end of the century. Such a quantum leap as warp drive will mean that we will probably have multiple interstellar colonies by the early 2100s. 2100s will probably be a time of heady expansionism and butting heads with the other races. Who knows where it will head after that.

reply to post by antar


I'm for fixing this planet, but the long term solution is to spread out. As long as Earth tries to support an ever growing population, we have a problem. Birth control is a non issue, because there can never be meaningful dialog that is at odds with instinctual desires.

Also, there's the old "all the eggs in one basket" issue. If global destruction were to overtake this planet, be it man made or natural, the fact that a viable portion escaped it would insure the survival of the species.

Lastly, Much of the tension that is holding Earth in the shadow of perpetual war is one of no frontiers. New frontiers, like America was a couple of centuries ago, bleed off the steam of discontent in the general population.

The sooner we start leaving the nest, the better off Earth and human kind will be.

Just my opinion.



[edit on 10-11-2007 by NGC2736]

Very interesting and intelligent posts, everyone! It's great to see such definite thought on such a broad topic.

Now, for my proverbial two cents.

Firstly, Dan5647, I think the timeline in your original post is a little too unrealistic and naively optimistic. It is a pretty neat idea though. Maybe you have the startings for a good sci-fi story. You did say you like that stuff, at least. I'm an avid sci-fi fan as well. I read a lot of the older, hardcore science fiction shorts and novels. But, I'm drifting from the topic at hand. Here is my critique of your ideas.

In your timeline, you suggest that by the close of the 21st Century we would have bases on the Moon, Mars, and Europa. It's not a bad idea, but I doubt the expansion would be that expedient.

Luna is an excellent starting point, not as a jumping off point to the rest of the Solar System, but as a place for humanity to learn how to colonize a dangerous and hostile environment that we are not native to. It's close to home, so if anything goes wrong it could be evacuated to Earth or rescue missions could be sent with little time involved. The downside of such a colony is that it could never be truly self sufficient. It would have to rely on Earth shipping water and other raw materials to sustain a growing population. Once the water is there, it's there, and could be recycled relatively easily. The same goes for any waste materials. For a colony on Luna, it would be absolutely crucial for it's survival for there to be as little waste, of any sort, as possible.

Mars would be the next step. This colony, once established, could be entirely self sufficient, though not with ease. Terraforming Mars has been suggested, but that takes and unknown amount of time. Biological engineering of the species was also a suggestion, but the moral and ethical questions quickly come into play that would no doubt hamper such a task. Mars has the raw materials, a slight atmosphere, and water that could provide for a colony, whether it's built in the classic domed-structure style, underground, or a combination of the two. Colonizing Mars on a large scale would be the first step towards any sort of off-planet empire.

Thirdly, in this point, you suggest Europa as another place to colonize. Again, this moon of Jupiter would be an interesting place to colonize, but unfortunately, it too would not be entirely self sufficient. There are several problems with any sort of colony on Europa. It's surface is relatively young and still active, as can be seen by the lack of any major features or scarring on it. This could pose many problems, mainly in the form of ice-quakes. That leads to the second problem. The "surface" of the moon is entirely made of ice, with the possibility of an encircling liquid ocean below. While that could provide the water for the colony, any other raw materials would have to be imported off-world. Whether those materials come from another moon, the asteroids in the belt or Trojan points, or the meager rings of Jupiter is irrelevant. Much like a colony on Luna, nothing could ever be allowed to go to waste. Aside from the moon's own problems, you would receive many more from being in such close proximity to Jupiter. Aside from those pesky tidal effects, potentially causing the aforementioned ice-quakes, radiation would be a huge concern. Jupiter's magnetic field is immense, and would pose problems for macro-cellular life as well any electronics. The nearness of the gas giant would also highly increase the probability of a colony destroying impact event, as many smaller bodies are still drawn into Jupiter by it's dominating mass. I suppose it would make for an incredibly aesthetically pleasing view, though.

Now, I think the best object for colonization after humanity has managed to master the arts of living in space or on another body would be the asteroid fields. There are essentially unlimited resources. Water, raw materials, and oxygen would never be a concern. Some of the largest asteroids, such as Ceres or Vesta, would make for an excellent starting point to exploit the asteroid belt and even out to Jupiter's companion asteroids. The only resources that would be finite would be the initial sources of food, but with proper breeding and horticulture of livestock and plantlife, and some initial rationing, would become even less of a concern. There are still problems with even this idea though, as not all of the asteroids are known and their orbits are constantly affected by Jupiter. This could very easily lead to danger, as the chances of two bodies colliding would be somewhat high. In the long run, this would be the best bet, as the raw materials in the asteroids are enough to supply humanity for thousands, if not millions, of years.

The rest of the list is a bit too Star Trek-like for my tastes. I don't deny my hopes that one day it will eventually come true, but I still maintain the timeline is far too optimistic.

Now, one point that near everyone has touched on is that humanity needs to "learn to get along here before colonizing space" or to "fix problems on our own planet first." While that would be great (And believe me, it would), it just isn't going to happen. Humanity has always warred amongst itself for one reason or another, the most common reason in history is still expansion of an empire. As NGC2736 stated, it would be a new frontier, much like the American frontier was a few centuries ago. But that, too, was a cause for wars, and did not necessarily bleed of steam at the time.

Think about it. As North America was beginning to be colonized, many skirmishes occurred between France, Spain, Great Britain, and other powers. Following that, there were several wars of colonies fighting for their independence. Then came the wars between these new countries desiring their own continued expansion. The problems of indigenous people wouldn't really be a concern in terms of humanities expansion through the Solar System. North America was not settled peacefully, but with blood. Space will no doubt be the same.

This is because the first nation, country, empire or what-have-you to colonize the asteroids will effectively control the Solar System. Asteroids would become the modern, and much cheaper, equivalent to nuclear weapons. For example, suppose China is the first to man the asteroids on a permanent basis. China now has it's own supply of unlimited resources. The United States then sends its own colonizing program to the asteroids. The Chinese would then have a few options to stop this: 1.) Change the orbit of another asteroid with ion drives so that it impacts the proposed US landing site, 2.) Threaten to change the orbit of an asteroid so that it lands on US soil unless they end their mission, or 3.) Actually attempt to move an asteroid into the path on the US spacecraft.

The most likely option taken would be the second, as it would threaten the homeland directly. Option one still leaves the mission chance to divert to another asteroid, while option three has such a low chance of success for various reasons that it would simply be a wasted effort.

Now, if two or more countries, for example, China, the US, and the EU, all went to the asteroids it would result in another cold war, with mutual assured destruction through either asteroids or nuclear war. This would no doubt lead to a resurgence in the technological aspects of life, much like the Soviet/US cold war did. Now, we would find humanity spreading out to get more and more of a strategic advantage over its rival nations. No, it wouldn't be the happy, go-lucky peaceful exploration and colonization that everyone dreams of, but it would be the most likely way for it to happen.

On a more interstellar scale, wars with countries in the Solar System would become less of a problem. The main thing to do would be to find a habitable star system in which to colonize. I'd worry more about the system than the planets themselves. Ultimately, if humanity has mastered interstellar travel, we will hopefully be able to make do with what planets and moons the system gives us.

Sometimes people suggest sending probes out to other stars in hopes of finding a suitable planet. That's an even greater waste of time and resources. By the time any probe reaches a system and carries out its mission, telescopes very well could have been developed that would provide the answer to the questions the probes were sent out to seek in the first place. Even today, telescopes are providing greater and greater resolutions of extrasolar planets, and it will only be a matter of time before we are able to discern planets the size and mass of our Earth around distant suns.

Well, I think that's sufficient for one post. This is what happens when I spend more than a year away from the site. I'm getting it all out now! Besides, it's well past my bedtime, and more importantly, I'm starting to run out of characters...

Assuming that getting off of Earth continues to be expensive for the next hundred years. I imagine that by the end of this century we will at most have some hotels orbiting Earth, a science outpost (and possibly hotel) on the Moon, and another science outpost on Mars. By the end of the next century we might have made some landings (manned or otherwise) on yet more bodies beyond Mars as well as many (or some) asteroids. The hotels orbiting Earth may be more grand in scale and the outposts on the Moon and Mars might actually start resembling tiny colonies. When I say "tiny colonies" I'm thinking populations that number 100 people or more. That still makes for a very small village, but none the less it is a start. By this point they may both be more self-sufficient.

Of-course if there is a major breakthrough that allows us to send up more people on a regular basis and for a reasonable cost then the colonization of the solar system might happen much faster.