The Tale of the Tape

More than 122,000 Democrats attended the Iowa caucuses Monday, of which roughly 45 percent were first-time participants, according to entrance polls. Iowa Democrats drew criticism in 2000 after results were slow and turnout in the two-candidate race was low at roughly 61,000.

desmoinesregister.com...

I'll spell it out for you: a 200% increase in voter turnoutover the previous presidential election year. People are so strongly in disapproval of the Republican vison for America that the old addage for elections will most definetly apply: it's not the candidate who influences the swing vote, but the candidate who mobilizes his base for a strong turn out.
Add to that the fact of a Dean/Kerry/Clark nomination motivating the base and taking swing voters and taking disenfranchised true Republicans, and Diebold vote count fraud part II or bioterror induced police state is the only Bush win scenario.