So let's say we pull out of Iraq...

First, I want to say this is not a "bait thread" to start a fight. I genuinely want people's opinions/foresight on what they think will happen in the middle east, in america, and around the world if we were to pull out of Iraq?

nothing? No one wants to comment on this?

Well, my opinion is that if we leave, the middle east will become completely unstablized. Iraq as we know it will no longer be. Iran will move in to take over the territory and be in prime position of an offensive against Israel. If this happens, of course the U.S. will be involved, and we're going to end up in a war with Iran.

Just my humble opinion...maybe I'm wrong, but I guess we won't know unless it happens, which, in 2008 it's looking like that will be the case, because I really don't see any of the Republican candidates winning the election. We shall see....

I often see threads like this die here. It has to do with people not being able to flaunt their debate skills and actually having to use rational and critical thinking in regards to a real life political scenario.

What would happen to Iraq if we pulled out? Land grab. Power grab.

Iranians are the native regional power now. They'll want to capitalize on it and on what they'll bill as an "American loss". Iranian backed Iraqi Shia will consolidate power through violence and oppression, and seize all available eastern and southern oil fields, pipelines, and ports. Iran might actually occupy some or all of these areas

Pulling out will make a VERY negative and lasting impression with the Saudis. The US will owe them big time, and there is a very real possibility of the Saudis convincing their OPEC partners to once again put an embargo on oil exports to the US. Yes, they will be THAT angry. They will also seek to gain physical control of any southern and western Iraqi areas of strategic defensive importance, passes, tracks, high points, etc.

The Syrians, who are Iranian allies, will use their military as a lever to help strong arm the Saudis. They might not actually occupy significant area within Iraq, but expect them to seize at least one airfield of strategic importance.

The Turks will immediately seize and, if need be ethnically cleanse, the Kurdish north western Iraqi provinces. Expect towns like Tal Afar and Dahuk to be Turkish in short order.



When you set aside personal feelings and look objectively at the reality of the situation, completely abandoning Iraq is the worst possible scenario for everyone except Iran. The US risks an oil embargo....and for those who don't remember the 1970s, you need to learn all you can about it before espousing an emotionally based scenario here. People will suffer, and not the rich: The poor. The old. The infirm. They will suffer most. Gas prices go through the roof. Materials and foods production and shipping prices go through the roof. Energy production prices will escalate. Home heating prices will skyrocket. It would be a new kind of ugly.

A planned and organized de-escalation and withdrawal of Western forces from Iraq is what is needed here. Packing up and skipping out quickly is bad, I cannot stress that enough.




[edit on 10-9-2007 by Reality Hurts]

Originally posted by Jaruseleh
Well, my opinion is that if we leave, the middle east will become completely unstablized.
.

well I just came down with a cold so my debate skills have been put on the back burner. I may just ramble.

From what I've read and seen the past 5 years, since when was the middle east ever even remotely stabilized? Of course, I'm sure it was fine to a point before 9/11, before we decided to go in, guns a'blazing, but... I really can see things going from bad to worse once we pull out. It would be nice to pull out, I feel pretty bad for those people who are putting their lives on the line for what could possibly be America just trying to flex its collective muscle... anyway...We've already hurt ourselves with this war (oil wise), and will just get worse (re, oil and quite possibly attacks on Americans).

To keep it simple (mainly so I wont confuse myself ): either way, pull out or non, that whole area's just going to hell in a handbasket. Lucky me I don't have a car anymore


[edit on 10-9-2007 by Chiiru]

Think of the Great Game over involving Afghanistan and the nations that fought over it. So imagine Iraq right now with its potential resources. Also think of the Soviet pullout of Afghanistan led to the disintegrate and factions fighting each other and warlords are born. And Iraq could become the next Al Qaeda training area for Arab foreign fighters, just like in Afghanistan. They will treat a failed state as their new home.

1. The current government will fall and be replaced by one that is far more sectarian, pro Shiite and less secular.
2. Iran will have a Shiite dominated government that will be more far more of an ally than the current one is able to be with our troops both present in its lands and propping it up. For example should we ever invade Iran I'm sure Iraq would be there to back Iran up.
3. Genocide will take place against the Sunnis. This is how stability will be granted to Iraq and Iran. By ruthlessly eliminating all Sunni opposition(s) to Muslim Fundamentalists Shiite ideology both Iran and its naturally pro Iranian government stand to gain further consolidating their power.
4. It is probably that Iran and Iraq will have shared military policy, and that Iraq would be protected by any future Iranian nuclear shield.
5. Iraq will almost certainly become closed to investment from those countries who participated in invading it, but probably all Western-Christian countries. It is very likely that any investments that have been made in Iraq by America or Israel will be totally confiscated.

Unfortunately all of these things will happen if the democratic system we put in Iraq is allowed to run its cause. Because (already) although we are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government; we are not there at the invitation of Iraqi people (the majority of whom not just want us out, but actually support attacks against our troops).
American Troops: www.usatoday.com...
British Troops: www.telegraph.co.uk.../news/2007/03/19/niraq119.xml

This gives you an idea of how out of touch the current elected government is with is electorate. However should we stay (and the will of democracy of prevail) then a new government will be elected and this government will kick us out, and no doubt influence all of the five points above.
Staying in Iraq only delays this prophecy up till 2009 and barring some miracle from the sky no more.

Should the prophecy be fulfilled we will be crying on the gravestone of Saddam Hussein only it will be too late, as we will have caused him to be wrongly executed.
Staying in Iraq reduces our chances of being able to find a leader like Saddam (who despite whatever flaws) we can at least do business with. Who is at least Secular and materially guided, as opposed to fundamentalist and religious-ideology guided.

The reason why us being in Iraq reduces the chances of a (principally pro-western) Saddam leader is because much of our boys fighting is taking place against the Sunnis, who have sided with Al-Qaeda in a bid to get us out of their land. However the Sunnis are demographically (with exception of course) far more secular, materialistic, and generally pro-western in their outlook than the pro-Iranian Iraqi Shiite (who are pro-Iranian because they are ethnically and culturally almost identical to the Iranians, but who resemble Iranians more at the time of the Iranian revolution than much of Iran’s youth does today.
By being in Iraq, aggravating the obvious-understandable wrath of the Sunnis, and then feeling the need to kill them of because they attack us (as a result), we are in fact doing the extreme of the extremists Shiites dirty work. We are in other words helping to build the foundations of a (not so far away) future Iranian style Iraqi state.
Therefore the troops who die today in Iraq do so not merely mostly in vein, but by killing those (who in other circumstances (if we were out of their country) would be many of our few allies) die also in a way that is directly counterproductive to future of western foreign policy-opportunities.

In my less certain opinion…
It is a shame we are ruled by evil people because otherwise we would have some original thinkers conversing them. Sadly for us evil people have a way of falling out with good people, original people, and most leaders have a problem with anyone who tries to converse them.

What We Should Do...
Be in Iraq only to lay strong foundations for a secular dictator because it is plain for all to see that the general Iraqi public are too much, and have been through too much, to back an effective secular democracy.
Maliki must go because is full of too much hatred, in particular towards the Sunnis, he is not opposed enough to the Iraqi police being infiltrated with extreme types who share enough of his politics. What we must have if we are to stabilise Iraq with a pro-western government, is not just a pro-western leader, but one who also says: "we are all Iraqi" "Does anyone disagree with that? Because let me know, and then I will imprison or kill you and torture you're supporters so I can find out who else disagrees with this statement, because it's a statement that's crucial to ending this civil war (which hurts everyone) and re-building Iraq into a country fit for human beings" (like it once was before 1991).

Take a look at what happened in Somalia when we pulleed out. Osama and many other Islamic groups used it as a rallying call, which lead to a series of attacks leading up to 9/11. Somalia is now embroiled in war with Ethiopia and Islamic extremists.

Imagine all of this on a MUCH larger scale. We will be finished as a credible super power, we will be attacked mercilessly, the middle east will fall in to regional war and all of our enemies will have been made much more powerful.

I think that the Iraqi government, such as it is, would virtually cease to exist. Terrorists and warlords would basically run the place. I don't think it would destabilize the entire region, but it sure would wreck Iraq.

I can also see, as Dronetek thinks, that Osama would trumpet this as 'a grand victory against the godless west' or something to that effect. I am reminded of what happened a couple years back when Israel gave up some of the territory it had conquered, both as a sign of goodwill, and because they were tired of dealing with the problems associated with holding it. The Palestinians were touting it as a victory and swearing that they would continue to press Israel until they gave all their land back. Now, I don't mean to turn this into an Israel/Palestinian debate, but the point is, if the US leaves Iraq, Osama is going to act just like Palestine did in this case, and from his point of view, it will be a victory.

In America, I think people will be generally happy that the troops are home. While I don't live in America, from what I gather, the war is extremely unpopular there, as it is most places. Osama might decide to attack America again.

While I agreed with Dronetek's point earlier, I disagree that the US 'will be finished as a credible superpower.' They were not finished after the Bay of Pigs or Vietnam or other defeats that they have suffered. They did lose face internationally as a result of those, and would do so again if leaving Iraq. (not to mention all the "I told you so's" from the UN and most other nations. The French would become truly insufferable! :p) I think that most democratic nations will support the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, seeing as there was so much opposition towards going there in the first place. Iraq's neighbours will support the withdrawal, as well, although for completely different reasons.

Hopefully I managed to avoid baiting anybody or rising to other's bait. If I did so, I apologize.

The US must pull out of Iraq and stop meddling in the affairs of other nations.
The US has no right to act as the world police nor should they interfere in the self determination of the people of other nations.

The US government wants world power
The majority of people who comprises of the power structure are the elite oligarchy whose power is dependent on wealth, information, position, family ties, control of the media, corporations, military and their loyalty to each other.

It so happens that black gold is the source of that power

Controlling the access to oil is power because everything is run by oil

Yet logic dictates that the laws of causality will bear an horrendous outcome if the initial cause is the action by a group such as the US to want to exploit, control, dominate, subjugate, oppress, and suppress other nations militaristically and economically.
It wouldn't of mattered who the people occupying Iraq was, be they of red coloured or even green, it just so happens that it was an arab nation with plenty of oil under their feet. The US would've invaded anyway

But it has come a time when people must open their eyes and ears and let reason prevail.
Like force always attracts a corresponding effect in equal measures where the circle always closes and comes back on itself.
Through so much cruelty unleashed by the US because of greed for wealth and power, they have not only gone against the basic foundation of the human principle, they have also ignored the truth of existence, namely that those who don't exercise universal love to all in the end offends against a directive of the order and against a law of the determination.

LOVE therefore is the absolute knowledge and feeling, the absolute perception and empathy, in communion in the original form with all existing life in all the entire universal forms and beyond, in the absolute wisdom of this: that one's existence is also a part-existence of every other existing life-form, which is, however, just as much a fragment of one's own existence, and that, collectively, entire universal life-forms only therefore exist because that truly is so.

So instead of love and care exchanged for love and care, the US government and that of many other nations have instead carried a gun and spoke with it, so people what do you think the effect will be?
You are seeing it right now as we speak.

The Iraquis will squabble amongst themselves over what is left of the country unti one warlord takes control of the country. This is Iraq, you can't change it.

Originally posted by Dronetek


Imagine all of this on a MUCH larger scale. We will be finished as a credible super power, we will be attacked mercilessly, the middle east will fall in to regional war and all of our enemies will have been made much more powerful.

Won't you have been made much more powerful by the return of those troops and resources in Iraq who are nothing more than useless targets at the moment?

in the first place,you have to understand the real reason we are.our govt and the media has misdirected people into believing that this is a "war against terrorrism" whereby the real reason for the war is very simple-oil.the middle east is where the abundance is so that is where they want to be.i say its their land,their oil,and our little greedy butts need to buy their oil like everyone else does-not bully it away from them as we are doing.if we pull out,we will not be as prosperous because we will not have a stronghold in that region.read the article on msnbc.com today that states that a well-respected organization has accused American forces of intentionally allowing al quaeda to gain strength.if you dont believe me,maybe that will sway your opinion.

reply to post by Jaruseleh


America won't pull out of Iraq and,with the backing of Britain and Israel the invasion of Iran will happen!

Why? Because the war in Afghanistan and Iraq is not about money,oil,9/11 or WMD.Its about having strategic military positions near China.
We all know thats where the next world war is coming from,and the main enemy is America,because America is the only true global business power at the moment and they don't want that threatened by anyone!!

Without land,America is left with the sea to mount an attack or defend itself.
America could not sustain that kind of war,it needs land to move troops and have air bases.

Originally posted by Jaruseleh
First, I want to say this is not a "bait thread" to start a fight. I genuinely want people's opinions/foresight on what they think will happen in the middle east, in america, and around the world if we were to pull out of Iraq?

I think Iraq is divided into three Nations,The North a Turkish dominated Kurdistan,The east on the other side of the River an Iranian puppet state(Or protectorate),The west will be the only true "Iraq" left.