Reason for Iraq war: Saudis are going nuclear

You may discount it because it's the CIA but in fact regarding Iraq, the CIA was much more correct than DOD and Rumsfeld and the other neocon wishful thinkers.

The danger about a nuclear Saudi Arabia is obvious.
A) they have lots of fundamentalists
B) their government's control is tenuous

once there was a revolution, would they give nukes to bin Laden and Hamas? Yes.


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GEOSTRATEGY-DIRECT INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
CIA: Saudi Arabia will go nuclear
Contradicts statements by White House, State Department
Posted: January 17, 2004
1:00 a.m. Eastern

Editor's note: WorldNetDaily brings readers exclusive, up-to-the-minute global intelligence news and analysis from Geostrategy-Direct, a new online newsletter edited by veteran journalist Robert Morton and featuring the "Backgrounder" column compiled by Bill Gertz. Geostrategy-Direct is a subscription-based service produced by the publishers of WorldTribune.com, a free news service frequently linked by the editors of WorldNetDaily.


� 2004 WorldNetDaily.com

The U.S. intelligence community has concluded Saudi Arabia intends to acquire nuclear weapons, the intelligence newsletter Geostrategy-Direct reports.

The assessment is contained in a report by the National Intelligence Council, a group under CIA director George Tenet. The council has released a report, called "NIC 2020," that envisions trends in the Middle East and other global regions over the next two decades.

The intelligence community regards Saudi Arabia as being next in line to acquire nuclear weapons, the report said. The council asserted the United States would have more difficulty in handling Saudi Arabia, a leading exporter of crude oil, than it would have with Libya and Syria.

As Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin reported in June, Saudi Arabia is among a growing list of nations that could pose a nuclear threat to the United States. Like Egypt, it has missiles and a large army and is a candidate for an Islamic revolution similar to Iran's 1979 conflict that overnight turned the country from being a stable U.S. ally to a vicious enemy.

Geostrategy reported in June that the Saudi royal family has become alarmed by the prospect of its neighbors having a nuclear bomb and has been secretly obtaining help from Pakistan for its missile and nuclear program. Riyadh helped finance Pakistan's nuclear program precisely to ensure that the royal family will have a bomb in case of an emergency, Geostrategy said.

The CIA report envisioned Saudi Arabia as reducing its dependency on the United States and using nuclear weapons to bolster the kingdom's security.

In contrast, the intelligence community sees Libya and Syria as seeking a rapprochement with Washington.

"Ironically, some of the most significant proliferation might involve moderate states such as the current Saudi regime rather than 'rogues' such as Libya or Syria," the report said. "The former will seek ways to ensure their security without overly heavy reliance on the United States. The latter will seek to escape the opprobrium of being 'rogues' and to be fully rehabilitated as members of the international community."

The report was released on Dec. 8, 11 days before the Bush administration announced a Libyan agreement to dismantle its nuclear weapons and medium-range missiles. The CIA participated in a British-U.S. team that toured Libyan nuclear and missile facilities in October and December 2003.

The United States has expressed satisfaction over Libya's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency's inspections of Tripoli's nuclear facilities. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the administration could soon review the lifting of a range of U.S. sanctions on the North African state.

"The next step is to make sure we have a clear understanding of what Libya possesses, make sure it matches up with what we think they possess and what they tell us they possess," Powell said Tuesday. "And they are very forthcoming to this point. And then make sure that we have worked with them to verify their holdings and the destruction of those holdings in accordance with the terms of the agreement.

"When we get that under control and we have a good sense of all of that, then we'll start to examine the political and policy issues that relate to bringing Libya back into a different relationship with the United States and with the rest of the international community," he said.

Intel contradicts administration

The U.S. intelligence community assessment of Saudi Arabia contrasts with statements by administration spokesmen that the kingdom would not seek to acquire nuclear weapons. That assertion, by the White House and State Department, came in October after Saudi Arabia was reported to have signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Pakistan.

The NIC report also appeared resigned to the prospect of an Iranian nuclear bomb, a development that was said to have prompted Saudi cooperation talks with Pakistan. The Iranian drive for nuclear weapons might not be affected by a change a regime in Tehran, the report said.

The intelligence community envisions increasing unrest in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. A regime change in Saudi Arabia would prompt a major increase in oil prices, rock the Persian Gulf region and lead to increased tension with neighboring Iran, the report said.

"Replacement of the Saudi regime by a radical Islamist successor, for example, might increase Arabian-Iranian tensions, with a rivalry for Islamic leadership -- one party Sunni, and the other Shia -- overshadowing whatever common characteristics would set both regimes apart from the Al Saud," the report said.

"Radical regime change would unavoidably affect relations with Washington and probably the U.S. role in the region. It also would affect the Arab-Israeli equation -- in a major way if the change of regime occurred in Egypt or Jordan."