Defcon 5...ok, but where?

Hello pessimistic ATS members. Where will the 1st nuke hit ? We are in the 21st century, in the middle of the nuclear age, and every guy well informed and very rich could get a nuclear missile. Now, given what i read every couple of days in the newspapers and all i see on ATS reports, it looks like nuclear war is on its way. But where ?

I just would like you to share your opinion about the exact location of that bomb, the first of the 21st century. And why ?

All suggestions welcome for my 1st post !

((( IMO the Chinese will imagine and organize a casus belli about Taiwan and try to legally retaliate. The first warheads would be american ones, fired by submarines against large chinese navy formations, such as an "invasion force". The exact location could be at sea, north from Taipei, in the middle of this ship concentration. )))

Pakistan and India over a border skirmish. Both have mid-range missiles not much better than long range mortars with nuke tips.