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Abstract:
APOLLO is a software application in the intelligence community that enables the analyst to reason through a prediction of a Subject's decision making, to identify assumptions and determinant variables, and to quantify each variable's relative contribution to the prediction, producing a graphical representation of the analysis with explicit levels of (un)certainty. The analyst builds Bayesian networks either from scratch or from previous models or templates. Bayesian networks integrate situational information with the Subject's personality and culture to provide a probabilistic prediction of alternative competing hypotheses about actions that a Subject might choose. The personality and culture variables-a unique application of psychosocial expertise-are based on literature and expert consensus.
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Spirit cannot be simulated.