Unidentified Flying....Nazis?

Great post choubix! But I think you are misunderstanding me. That system only works when comparing the plausibilty of two theories, it's not intended to determine the probability that a certain event will occur. What I'm doing is determining the plausibility of two possibilites, what you were doing was determining the possiblity of one occurance. Great post though, it made me think! You're right though, my system is probably fatally flawed and some ATS think-tank is going to steamroll me. Oh well, what else is new.

By the way, I can't figure out for the life of me how to create an avatar, this forum system is alien (pun intended) to me.

thanks for the praise

i think i understood well. the thing is: in theory A you have 1, 2 ,3 and 4. in theory B you have 5, 6, 7 and 8

you are saying:
1, 2, 3 are proven and not 4

5 and 6 are proven, not 7 and 8

so A is more likley to be true.


well the problem is in the way you build up your theories A and B because 1, 2, 3.... may not relate to each other at all... maybe that theory A should be :1 , 2, 6, 8 and theory B: 3,4,5 and 7.

in short: the methodology is wrong leading to wrong result.


anyway: I am not a star when it comes to maths. just want to warn you: if you use this theory in "real life" you may have some problems. (unless you use it on purpose as part of a speech in order to convince people)

Ahh, I understand what you're saying, and your right. In order for it to actually work effectivly each listed phenomena must definitively relate to the plausibility of the theory. Excellent point. I guess plausiblity is really just an intuitive understanding of logic.

and as I dont relate Nazi tech to Ufos at all...

but interesting post from you