Here's the
Source for the OP's claim.
- Point 1:
This "study" is flawed in methadology in such a way that could falsely advance the appearance that illegal immigrants are raping
America en masse.
(If you work the numbers in the fast and loose manner that the good doctor has, it would suggest that if you took all women under the age of 75 in
America, more than 1 out of every 13 is statistically likely to have been raped by an illegal immigrant. Unlikely.)
The exact figures are questionable. Dr. Schurman-Kauflin is a profiler. She plays the percentages. She deals in possibilities and probabilities, not
absolutes.
She has no source indicating that there have in fact been nearly a million victims.
She took an estimate of how many illegals there are in the country.
Then she estimated which percentage of them are sex offenders (she estimated 2%).
She then took a sampling of 1,500 offenders and applied the average number of victims for that sample (4) and applied that to the estimated 2% of 12
million immigrants to come up with the number of victims.
She offers no detailed explanation of her methadology. If you have ever taken a gander at a peer reviewed professional journal serving professions
that require a doctorate, you might have noticed that such an error can raise serious questions about the validity and even the motive of a study.
There is an inconclusive hint as to her method though.
The first sentence might suggest an attempt to modify the average in the general population by the measure statistically dictated by demographic
differences. This would be flawed because we do not have accurate demographics of the illegal population. Any attempt to do that would be dependent on
a sample, the size and nature of which the doctor has not disclosed.
The second sentence might suggest that the number was taken from a random sampling of ICE reports and public records relating to illegal immigrants.
Again the sample, if there is one, is not discussed, and even if it were it would be invalid as the sources for the sample are sources that one
becomes more likely to be known to if he commits crimes. An immigrant who commits no crime other than illegal immigration is less likely to be
apprehended by police and documented in those sources.
It is important to remember however that the doctor makes no explicit claim to having examined a sample from those sources by any analytical method.
It is worded carelessly, and could be an unreliable assertion of "common knowledge"- a rough guess of what she thinks she's seen in the past.
In either case the 2% figure is completely unreliable.
Based on population numbers of 12,000,000 illegal immigrants and the fact that young males make up more of this population than the general U.S.
population, sex offenders in the illegal immigrant group make up a higher percentage. When examining ICE reports and public records, it is consistent
to find sex offenders comprising 2% of illegals apprehended.
The figure of four victims per criminal is also suspect because each offense increases the likelihood of being caught. Those who only had one victim,
perhaps on multiple occasions, would be underrepresented (and those, incidentally, would be most likely to be the ones who are family to the victim)
which means that not only is the projected number of victims inflated with crimes that probably never happened at all, but the actual number would
consist in part of crimes that still would have happened if the immigration had not occurred.
- Point 2:
The offender data provided by this study suggests that improving conditions for illegals could drastically reduce crime. Our current
strategies in combatting illegal immigration could be part of the problem.
Nearly 63% had been deported on another offense prior to the sex crime. There was an average of 3 years of committing crimes such as DUI,
assaults, or drug related offenses prior to being apprehended for a sexual offense.
(snip) In fact, 81% of offenders were drinking or using drugs prior to offending.
(snip)They were transient in that they went where work took them. Therefore, only 25% were stable within a community.
(snip)Only 22% had graduated high school.
There is a question of cause vs effect that is perhaps too deep of a tangent for us to enter in this thread. The fact that 63% worked their way up to
sexual assault with other crimes does suggest "formative years" for the criminal mind- and the question is, "formed by what?".
I submit to you that by raising standards for working conditions and wages and making employers strictly accountable for them, we can decrease the
demand for illegal immigrants to be exploited, thereby driving down the overall number of illegal immigrants while simultaneously reducing the
criminal proclivities of those that we do encounter by providing them the opportunity for stable lives in which there is less draw to alcohol or drugs
and less incentive to petty crimes from which one might graduate to violent crimes and sex crimes.
Further progress is also indicated as possible if we pressure Mexico and other nations from which we experience large-scale immigration to put their
own houses in order, increasing education and decreasing immigration.
Our tactics in regards to illegal immigration are ineffective, therefore this study presents no argument in favor of them. From the right perspective,
this study can be interpereted as highlighting the need for different tactics: tactics which may not appeal to our gruff and tough sense of quick,
ruthlessly efficient conservative problem solving, but despite whatever ideological irritation they might be to us, will be more likely to solve the
material problems at hand.