Iran: US attack equals world war III

Just want to chime in with some points for my fellow military analysts in ATS:

1. Iran is allied with Syria. Attack one and you have war with both.

2. Both Syria and Iran purchase armaments from Russia and China.

3. Iran is approximately twice the size of Iraq, more mountainous, and comparatively much harder to invade and control.

4. The US is protecting the sovereignty of Israel and does not want Israeli forces to get directly involved with the conflicts in Iraq and Iran.

5. There is a looming threat of China attacking and invading Taiwan (an ally of the United States) in 2008 - according to a Taiwanese general in citing US intelligence reports. Because of US forces being spread so thin around the globe, it is not feasible that an invasion of Iran will be attempted.

6. The most likely probability is that there will be a number of air strikes and covert operations against Iran and the latter will respond with their own covert operations, air strikes, and the launching of long-range missiles.

7. Largely due to the resentment of many in the US over the war in Iraq, the Democratic Party is likely to take-over the White House via the presidential election in 2008. (China is waiting for the change of US administrations before attacking Taiwan.) After which, the Democratic president will likely begin ordering the pull-out of American troops in Iraq. In turn this will cause the war on terrorism to expand to American soil (like never before) and Israel will be forced to get directly involved in a war with Syria, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries who will join-in the conflict once it escalates.

[edit on 24-5-2007 by Paul_Richard]

What scares me the most is that all this is 100% true (or seams to be getting that way) that Israel will be the major target from Iran, Syria, Russia and China, in a blunt full out attack and I have no idea what to do as a US Citizen that can barely keep up with rent much less much of anything else. (like where to go, what to do, how to prepare ones self, which news source is real which is fudged - well most are fudged).

Originally posted by downtown436
Russia has many financial and military interests in Iran, and i think they would back Iran if we bomb them. I think the possible retaliation might be to bomb Israel.
Either way it will cause dark desperate times across the globe.

Originally posted by Xfile
Im fairly sure that if iran is attacked they would try the same tactic in the hope that with israel involved would bring other arab countries to fight along side it against them.

Originally posted by Paul_Richard
4. The US is protecting the sovereignty of Israel and does not want Israeli forces to get directly involved with the conflicts in Iraq and Iran.

5. There is a looming threat of China attacking and invading Taiwan (an ally of the United States) in 2008 - according to a Taiwan general in citing US intelligence reports. Because of US forces being spread so thin around the globe, it is not feasible that an invasion of Iran will be attempted.

7........After which, the Democratic president will likely begin ordering the pull-out of American troops in Iraq. In turn this will cause the war on terrorism to expand to American soil (like never before) and Israel will be forced to get directly involved in a war with Syria, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries who will join-in the conflict once it escalates.

As far fetched as the movie series, Left Behind, is, it pretty much fits this entire scenario, meaning the full on attack from the red army into Israel is real and will happen. Just depends on GWB and his minions and how they go about it.

I also have to agree with, coven, about many US American Citizens will stand up and fight for our Rights as People and to Protect our Nation. Unfortunately many Americans feel the same way... why can't we just all get along, have a BBQ, go fish for a bit, clean a pool, or better yet, plug in and battle it out in a video game.

Vitchillo, I am interested to learn from you after hearing your views about Isreal's attack on the Qsiraq reactor, would you have supported Saddam having the bomb then ?

Given that Saddam Hussein did launch missiles at Isreal, do you say that Isreal had no right to attack Osiraq ?

Hindsight is 20:20 but if you wait to acquire it you may be dead.

Unfortunately many commentators are right that US credibility has been destroyed by attacking Iraq. GBW is a fool in my view, however at the very time when the justification is real, US credibility is at a very low ebb.

Iran is not a nation of tractor mechanics driving T-55 tanks. They have been developing their own Main Battle Tank and their own supersonic fighter called Shafagh. They have also purchased excellent weapon systems from Russia including modern submarines, SAM systems et al.

Any attack on Iran needs to be short sharp and decisively knock out every millitary and nuclear asset quickly. The point should not be to take territory.

Russia will side with Iran. China will side with USA.

What does Nostradamus say ?

Re: Al Qaeda ?

The year 1999 seven months
From the sky will come the great King of Terror.
To resuscitate the great king of the Mongols.
Before and after War reigns happily.

Re: WTC 9/11?

"In the city of york there will be a great collapse,
Two twin brothers torn apart by chaos
while the fortress falls the great leader will succumb
third big war will begin when the big city is burning"

the Bible says:

On the day of great slaughter, when the towers fall, the light of the moon will be like that of the sun . . . from afar in burning wrath . . . will winnow the nations with a destructive winnowing, and with repeated winnowings will he battle against them" (Isaiah 30:25-28)

Originally posted by DarkSide

Originally posted by Id123
Qadiri-Abyaneh stated that Iran is making all-out efforts to avoid war. "However, we will confront the aggressor and defend our rights," he reiterated.

With what? T-55's and outdated aircraft?

Iraq should of proved to you, that superior tanks, weapons and arms do not win any war now a days, especially when the masses are against it.
To win a war, that mankind depends on, would just mean the bomb.
And the only wars worth fighting for, are the ones worth dying for...

Militarily you may beat Iran, but you will not win the war.
If you think Iraqs bad, with there aa guns, russian tanks and weapons.. imagine what a much larger, stronger IRAN will be like.


It will start WW3,
Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Sudan..

you cant nuke them all.


[edit on 24-5-2007 by Agit8dChop]

you cant nuke them all.

Oh yes we can. We can take the whole world with us. The only thing is no one is crazy enough to do that. However I think this whole thing is messed up. We need to keep to our own affairs. Neutral isolation all the way W0000

Originally posted by Paul_Richard
Just want to chime in with some points for my fellow military analysts in ATS:
5. There is a looming threat of China attacking and invading Taiwan (an ally of the United States) in 2008 - according to a Taiwanese general in citing US intelligence reports. Because of US forces being spread so thin around the globe, it is not feasible that an invasion of Iran will be attempted.

I disagree.

First off, there is a significant (and growing) portion of Taiwanese society that favours reunification (or some watered down version thereof) with China. This has been the case since the beginning. This movement has been getting stronger along side the Cinese economy. There is no point to invasion at the current rate, because the Taiwanese themselves are more likely to choose reunification on their own terms eventually. The PRC know it, and play their cards accordingly.

Second, any mention of Taiwan by the PRC tends to equate to shaky stock markets, pretty much immediately. An actual invasion would shut down investment in China completely, as well as collapsing the economies of Japan and South Korea, for a start.


My 2¥



[edit on 25-5-2007 by vox2442]

Originally posted by Paul_Richard
Just want to chime in with some points for my fellow military analysts in ATS:

1. Iran is allied with Syria. Attack one and you have war with both.

2. Both Syria and Iran purchase armaments from Russia and China.

3. Iran is approximately twice the size of Iraq, more mountainous, and comparatively much harder to invade and control.

4. The US is protecting the sovereignty of Israel and does not want Israeli forces to get directly involved with the conflicts in Iraq and Iran.

5. There is a looming threat of China attacking and invading Taiwan (an ally of the United States) in 2008 - according to a Taiwanese general in citing US intelligence reports. Because of US forces being spread so thin around the globe, it is not feasible that an invasion of Iran will be attempted.

6. The most likely probability is that there will be a number of air strikes and covert operations against Iran and the latter will respond with their own covert operations, air strikes, and the launching of long-range missiles.

7. Largely due to the resentment of many in the US over the war in Iraq, the Democratic Party is likely to take-over the White House via the presidential election in 2008. (China is waiting for the change of US administrations before attacking Taiwan.) After which, the Democratic president will likely begin ordering the pull-out of American troops in Iraq. In turn this will cause the war on terrorism to expand to American soil (like never before) and Israel will be forced to get directly involved in a war with Syria, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries who will join-in the conflict once it escalates.

[edit on 24-5-2007 by Paul_Richard]

I must agree. Iraq is a lose-lose war. If you throw in Iran you will
have a mass unit with great organization, commitment and strength.

Thats just Iraq and Iran, who knows the other countries that hate USA.
Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Some of Africa, Russia, China either or
is still deadly.
There may be more countries or there may be less countries, who knows
but the leaders of those countries for sure.

Hmm seem like there is alot of posturing.

Simple facts are Russia and CHina would never go to war over an American attack on Iran. You site the fact that both counries do business with Iran....so what ? The trade of a few billion is piddly compared to the trade with the US and the EU. Do a little reading about thisd before you site a few billion dollors in business deals as a reason for backing Iran. It;s stupid and makes no sense.

It is never the intention of the US to invade and occupy Iran. They would just use massive airpower and selected follow up by ground forces to roll the Iran's military back a few decades.

The really funny thing is, that the Russian's and Chinese would prefer to deal with a much more moderate and predictable government in Iran than the one they have now. It wasn't too long ago that the Iranian leaders referred to Russia as the Lesser Satan, the US being the Great Satan, lol.

I'd be curious about what Alemadjani (sp) and the ruling Mullah's personal view is about the godless Chinese people.

This relationship is only a marraige of convenience for oil that China needs and a cash cow for the Russians. Certainly not worth risking the far more important relationship with the major powers.

PS. I notice that China or Russia NEVER ever backs up Iran's claims of WW3.

Originally posted by infinite

they did help to stop a nuclear program, so i don't think they "deserved it".

Interesting slant this one.

So if someone from a foreign country wanted to blow up a reactor in the UK or the US to stop a nuclear programme thats ok is it?

So if someone from a foreign country wanted to blow up a reactor in the UK or the US to stop a nuclear programme thats ok is it?

Don't be silly we have double standards..J/k
I think he meant stopping a nuclear program being run by Saddam Hussein..

Originally posted by gotanybob
I think he meant stopping a nuclear program being run by Saddam Hussein..

indeed.

if your country was to be the number one target of a nuclear weapon, would you try and stop it from being built?

Originally posted by vox2442
First off, there is a significant (and growing) portion of Taiwanese society that favours reunification (or some watered down version thereof) with China.

That may indeed be the case. But the government seeks its own sovereignty. Much like the situation in the United States whereby millions of people oppose the war in Iraq while the government continues to send troops there.

Originally posted by vox2442
This has been the case since the beginning. This movement has been getting stronger along side the Cinese economy. There is no point to invasion at the current rate, because the Taiwanese themselves are more likely to choose reunification on their own terms eventually. The PRC know it, and play their cards accordingly.

A Chinese communist overthrow of the Taiwanese democracy will result in economic domination by China, not the economic expansion of Taiwan.

Originally posted by vox2442
Second, any mention of Taiwan by the PRC tends to equate to shaky stock markets, pretty much immediately. An actual invasion would shut down investment in China completely, as well as collapsing the economies of Japan and South Korea, for a start.

All wars shut down investment and trade. That is a given.

You are not seeing the forest for the trees. Red China no longer has any threats to their sovereignty. It is their policy of imperialism and their oppressive, communistic government - not friendly economic interests - which has resulted in the Chinese pouring money into aggressively building up their army, air force, navy, and long-range missiles that could hit the US.

All for an eventual war in the Pacific. A war which they intend to start and win

If they had no need for a war, then they would not be so active in building up their war machine.

North Korea, ally of Red China, will also take part in their thrust of communistic imperialism.

Which is why your own government in Japan has already installed a missile defense system to counter the build-up of missiles aimed at you by North Korea.

[edit on 25-5-2007 by Paul_Richard]

If the US or Israel got so paranoid about Iran's nuclear program that they decided to attack Iran (I can't see UK making a pre-emptive attack), but they didn't want it to end up like Iraq... couldn't they just attack the nuclear facilities and let that be it?

Then they wouldn't have the trouble of invading and occupying. And it's Iran's choice if it then wants to retaliate against Israels defences.

I don't know much about where Iran's facilities are situated though...

Originally posted by infinite

if your country was to be the number one target of a nuclear weapon, would you try and stop it from being built?

Hmm. Obviously the cold war passed you by then, because I could have sworn that the Soviet Bloc had up to 40000 warheads lined up and ready to go at western powers at one stage and oddly no one went in an bombed their nuclear facilites - and - even more oddly - no one from the US, UK or other western powers went and bombed theres.

But anyway - to carry the point a bit further - I'd put money on it that there is a nuclear tipped Jericho III missile (probably more than one) with Tehrans name on it, so you are suggesting that Iran would be perfectly justified in bombing Israeli nuclear facilities to prevent such a thing from being fired?

Originally posted by malganis
If the US or Israel got so paranoid about Iran's nuclear program that they decided to attack Iran (I can't see UK making a pre-emptive attack), but they didn't want it to end up like Iraq... couldn't they just attack the nuclear facilities and let that be it?

Absolutely. Like the the air strike that the Israelis orchestrated to destroy a nuclear reactor in Baghdad in 1981.

However, the task in this case would not be so easy. Iran has had many years to prepare for this and has its nuclear weapons facilities largely underground and spread out, for obvious reasons.

[edit on 25-5-2007 by Paul_Richard]

Originally posted by bodrul
the US will plow through Iran like it did with Iraq
i mean its not like Iran was under weapons sanctions for decades
and not like russia and china have been giving them weapons

Irans defences arent a single threat

on topic
Bush is fudged and i really doubt the senete will aprove of another worth less war to sacrifice more lives (hopefully)

Well Bush doesn't need congressional approval to launch air strikes. He can do that with just his executive powers. So lets hope Bush realizes how worthless it would be to go to war with Iran.

Some of you guys needs to think again...

Ever heard of a country called "PAKISTAN"???

It's a 1 billion people country, with a big army, a very powerfull intelligence agency (wich happend to be at origin of the talibans phenomenon) and an ally of the USA for now.

But recently they had big political troubles and a few attempt of murder of their chief and dictator -Pervez Musharaf-. The fact that this "president" is an ally with USA is very ciritized by locals, and could lead someday to a major islamic revolution. This is a real threat for USA an Europe.

By the way, they got nuke and are allied to China. If this country fall to Islamism in reaction to a war in Iran, the WW3 can begin.

Basically, it's like the USA with their disastrous intervention in middle east try to build themself a major new nemesis. So if you want muslims to keep thinking USA is an ideal target for djyahd, please help yourself, invade Iran and we'll all die in a big nuclear mushroom.

Originally posted by Fennec
Some of you guys needs to think again...

Ever heard of a country called "PAKISTAN"???

It's a 1 billion people country,

Isn't that India?

Correct me if I am wrong, but thats the population size of India not Pakistan?

Pakistan Population size = 163,630,000

en.wikipedia.org...

Yes you're right, sorry for the wrong number... Shame on me...

By the way here is the point: Pakistan got Nuke, a well organised army, and any more destabilisation in this area of the world could lead to a desastrous situation in this country... This situation could then "leak" to the whole middle east area and India, thus leading to a WW3 including China, India, Pakistan.

[edit on 25-5-2007 by Fennec]

[edit on 25-5-2007 by Fennec]

Originally posted by Fennec
Some of you guys needs to think again...

Ever heard of a country called "PAKISTAN"???

...If this country fall to Islamism in reaction to a war in Iran, the WW3 can begin.

World War 3 basically began in 1991 with the Persian Gulf War.

We are just in the second chapter of it now. The third chapter will be two-fold:

1. The official war with Iran and Syria, who are presently funding and training the forces of insurgency in Iraq.

2. The official war with Red China (and its close ally North Korea) when they attack and invade Taiwan (and probably Japan as well).

As far as Pakistan is concerned, it is just a matter of time before they fall into an Islamic theocracy.

You're right about that.

But in opposing the US they have one big problem right on their border: the nuclear power of India who is allied with the US

We live in most interesting times.

[edit on 25-5-2007 by Paul_Richard]