Gulf stream shut-down in progress?

Every Monday I check the DEOS website for the current Gulf Stream flow conditions. During the last 3 weeks there has been a marked flow disruption going on, with a major southern "bleed-off" occurring about 300 miles south of Newfoundland.

Worse case scenario, this may turn into a MAJOR weather disruptor for Europe and the North Eastern US. Watch the weather carefully ... and lets see what happens. Hopefully this will self-correct shortly, for I personally am not ready for things to start failing apart this soon.

DEOS is the Department of Earth Observation and Space Systems in The Netherlands.

rads.tudelft.nl...
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[edit on 14-5-2007 by Avastar]

How does this compare to historical data?

Also, just a quick question, but it seems a little skinny. Is that how it is supposed to look?

I wonder also if this is just one of those weird short term occurrences or just something to b worry about.

I wonder how this will affect the hurricane season.

Well, I've gone back and looked at the May 14th dates for the last 4 years, and there does appear to be a lot of seasonal disruption out there this time of year. This image is of this time last year:


However, in all of the archive images since 1/1/2003 there is only one period of ten days (last Dec. 10-20th) that the Gulf flow made a diversion of over 100 miles south.


I guess we'll have to wait and see if I'm just being an paranoid alarmist ...

Paranoid or not I'm glad someone is keeping an eye on this. Please post any changes you find. I'll be watching for it.

Seems like this could just be some sort of anomoly, but better safe than sorry. Wasnt this what happened in "The Day After Tomorrow"?

If more of these deviations continue to persist, give us a heads up so I can go and stock up at Sams Club. What next, 3 days of darkeness or the sun rising in thw west?

Cheers!

Hey, if the earth's magnetic field flips, technically the sun WILL rise in the west.. since compasses will point to what is now south...

You know something, four years of data is not a lot to go off of.

Also, I recall reading an article that said it wouldn't really matter that much if the Gulf Stream did shut down, as its effect on weather is not as great as originally thought, and since global warming is, well, global, any change in this so-called "heat conveyer" (it doesn't really convey that much heat) will be offset by that global warming.

www.americanscientist.org...
www.wunderground.com...

You know something, four years of data is not a lot to go off of.

I totally agree. However, we do know that the North Pole is melting and that fresh water IS desalinating the Atlantic Ocean. We need to start looking at the changes that are occurring, and watch for any corresponding atmospheric effects. All that we DO know is that it drops the average air temperatures 4-5 degrees above the 40th parallel.

Firstly, the American Scientist is not a peer-reviewed journal. I would not put all my faith in it. However I did look-up the references and they are an interesting counterpoint. They ignore the the fact that the last time the Gulf stream shutdown the world DID go into a "little Ice Age" lasting several hundred years.

I quote Dr. Masters, from your above reference at the Weather Underground: www.wunderground.com...

"A shut down of the Meridional overturning circulation [the Gulf Stream] would suddenly decrease the amount of heat in the North Atlantic, leading to much colder temperatures in Europe and North America. A 2003 report prepared for the Department of Defense outlines what would happen if an abrupt climatic change similar to the 8200 years before [referring to when the Gulf Stream last shutdown] present event were to recur today:

1) Annual average temperatures would drop up to 5°F in North America, and up to 6°F in northern Europe. This is not sufficient to trigger an ice age, which requires about a 10°F drop in temperature world-wide, but could bring about conditions like experienced in 1816--the famed "year without a summer". In that year, volcanic ash from the mighty Tambora volcanic eruption in Indonesia blocked the sun's rays, significantly cooling the globe. Snow fell in New England in June, and killing frosts in July and August caused widespread crop failures and famine in New England and northern Europe.

2) Annual average temperatures would warm up to 4°F in many areas of the Southern Hemisphere.

3) Multi-year droughts in regions unaccustomed to drought would affect critical agricultural and water resource regions world-wide, greatly straining food and water supplies.

4) Winter storms and winds would strengthen over North America and Europe."

It's worth watching - and I would imagine there are people that are!!

Just been having a look at NOAA (national oceanic and atmospheric administration)

polar.ncep.noaa.gov...

These boys have got ya back.

Some bad news though

The Emmy award-winning NOAA documentary, Saving Springer, is a remarkable and inspirational story about the work that NOAA does every day.

I didn't know the poor chap was in trouble... is there anything we could do?

Here is today's update. And the gulf stream is still flowing south out there (far right side of the map) instead of north. I wish we could be a fly-on-the-wall at NOAA and hear what the brains are saying about this...

I have a very sick feeling about this.

After all, it was only 150 or so years ago that diverting the Gulf Stream was discussed by Congress and several hundred thousand dollars were actually allocated for that purpose. It was deemed a worthwhile procedure which would benefit the US enormously.

At that time, it was proposed a long pier-type structure be built for the purpose of diverting the Gulf Stream's flow. It was considered viable.

Nothing as primitive as a pier would be necessary today, with all the technology available. It would still benefit the US --- and has the potential to control Europe .. to bring it to its knees and force reliance for foods etc. on the US.

Originally posted by uberarcanist
Also, I recall reading an article that said it wouldn't really matter that much if the Gulf Stream did shut down, as its effect on weather is not as great as originally thought, and since global warming is, well, global, any change in this so-called "heat conveyer" (it doesn't really convey that much heat) will be offset by that global warming.

I've heard about the report and to be quite honest I personally believe the motive behind the report is to keep people focused on warming. If people believe warming will lead to cooling then they will likely not jump on the global warming bandwagon. Historical data shows that a disruption of the current will have a significant impact on the climate. Events such as the Little Ice Age and the Younger Dryas were believed to have been caused by one level of disruption or another.

Look at the significant impact El Nino has on the climate. Or even La Nina. Why would I or anyone believe that a current disruption wouldn't have at least that big of an impact or perhaps even greater.

Also what kind of impact will a disruption have if it forces the current below the surface which could create an effect in which colder waters from deep are forced to the surface? This could create a rapid and significant regional cooling which will eventually spread globally if not corrected.

Originally posted by stumason
How does this compare to historical data?

rads.tudelft.nl...

Thats an animation of 2003 to present.

I think what you are seeing currently is still well within line with historical data. I do not see a shutdown eminent relative to the past 4 years. Mind you... I do still see eminent shutdown... just a few years out.

Sri Oracle

Namaste
Isn't God fantastic!
Not the grey haired old thing but the majesty of creation!
When the humans get greedy and forget to work together and prepare for the inevitable tides of nature.....we get our asses kicked lol
maybe the're a few Noahs out there readying themselves for the next deluge?
www.iceagenow.com
The truth is that their are so many ways in which civilizations 'get it' that it could be a subject all of its own....you know?
I'm not a farmer but the years I've been alive and the fact that the bees are dying is a sure sign that it's over people...make your peace with yourself, your famolies and your maker and get ready for the greatest journey
Peace & Love & Light to you all my Brothers & Sisters
Aum............................

S&F from me good post OP

Let’s be very clear here about this.

I AM SICK of the hyperbole and spin "Warming" "Change" "Anthropogenic" whatever the focus is, if the Gulf Stream stops ALL CURRENT LONG STANDING WEATHER PATTERNS ON EARTH WILL CHANGE.

This isn’t about data here, or this report says, and only 20% of scientists say so and so, public hyperbole and spin to take your attention away from the dangers.

It is impossible for the Gulf Stream to stop and all current historical weather patterns (since last mini ice age) not to be affected.

To even postulate that it would not has much effect is ignorant, it is like trying to say a football team's performance would not be affected much if all the team lost a leg overnight.

It is ridiculous and very dangerous to hold and espouse that view. In addition to affecting every other climate system in the world and changing it, it would also make most of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean almost an "ocean desert" as the rich nutrient water would not be driven from the Greenland, Artic waters and rise up there for the ecosystem to feed of.

Rant over, if you guys research more you will find that in fact the Gulf Stream is at around 40% of the energy it used to have.

The actual physical evidence at the source can be seen by this current event that is taking place in part of the main driver for this entire system;

COPENHAGEN (AFP) — Greenland's ice cap, which covers more than 80 percent of the island, is melting faster than expected because of global warming, a Danish researcher said on Monday.

The 1.8-million-square-kilometre (695,000-square-mile) ice cap, which accounts for 10 percent of the planet's fresh water, is losing about 257 cubic kilometres (62 cubic miles) of ice per year.

AFP 2 days ago

Nasa is concerned too and has sent rubber ducks to try and save us:

When a sophisticated science probe failed to return any data about whether pools of melted glacial ice were showing up in the ocean, a NASA researcher turned to a decidedly low-tech solution: a brigade of rubber ducks.

"We're a little frustrated right now," said Seelye Martin, the program manager for NASA's Earth sciences division. "The water has to go somewhere but we don't know where."

Discovery

So NASA is admitting they don’t fully understand the dynamics of the systems yet, modern technology cant work out the massively complicated and interrelated climate of our earth, but yes of course "I have heard that man does not affect the climate, and also that it wont be that bad anyhow"

Well guys enjoy watching your one legged team of footballer's attempt to play their game, do you think its worth betting on them winning though?


Doesn’t worry the government will use rubber ducks to protect you from the famine, flooding, biodiversity collapse and extreme climatic events.

Drivel , spin , manipulation and ignorance.

WAKE UP PEOPLE

Kind Regards,


Elf.

[edit on 25-9-2008 by MischeviousElf]

Us in uk and irlenad know that we never had a summer this year. The gulf stream is responsible for alot of the warm weather that we get in uk, but this year has been cold. With that and the sun, something is going on. None of it has anything to do with man made global warming. Its just a normal event, that probably happens alot.

But heck us in london have had a sh*t summer this year.

[edit on 9/25/2008 by andy1033]

I would really like to see an update on this since the original post. I can't find anything on it since it first came out.

What is the status now, has it changed, improved or further deteriorated?

Thanks

reply to post by Relentless


You can check the latest charts here:

rads.tudelft.nl...

All looks normal to me.

As a comparison, this is from 5 years ago:

rads.tudelft.nl...

In case the stream stops we would have major problems. There is not enough technology to study the climate and stop this , people are too busy studying outer-space and spitting on our planet. In case it stops , which would probably happen soon , the temperatures of Europe and north America would.

Qoute "William Patterson, from the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, and his colleagues have shown that switching off the North Atlantic circulation can force the Northern hemisphere into a mini 'ice age' in a matter of months."

Forcing us into a mini 'ice age' would actually be more of a benefit than a crisis. People would die , yes , but the sudden temperature change might beat the global warming. The snow would reflect sun rays back to space. Addition to that is that at least 20% of human industrial work would freeze over and be abandoned in the north.

There might be an another thing that storms would appear to correct the imbalance that caused them. Qoute "It's building right now. 1998 was the most violent year in the history of weather, and ended as the hottest year ever recorded. Global warming is about to cause the North Atlantic Current to suddenly drop to a more southerly route. This will cause an explosive change in climate, spawning a massive storm as cold Arctic air is freed to pour south, clashing with overheated air in temperate zones.

What will it be like?

Blizzard conditions. Sustained winds in excess of 100 miles per hour. Massive snowfalls. Death rates approaching 100 percent beneath the interior of the storm. If it happens in the summer, massive flooding will occur. If it ignites during the winter, it will bring the dawn of a new ice age.'

The worst part is that we can't stop it , not anymore. How much greenhouse gasses we made/released already , it would be enough to destroy ozone for maybe over a hundred years. IF a storm occurs and we are lucky enough , it would somehow evaporate the gasses bringing a new dawn after the ice age. A new hope , peace and a new world.