New insight into who the US percievs as #1 threat.

April, 2007

* 26th- This analysis is from an e-mail conversation today…

…I'm watching the Kitty Hawk in particular because multiple "predictions" see her catching a handful of Sunburns in a bad way. For them to be correct, it must happen before she decomms. The Battle Cat's been in SRA maintenance for the past few months. I'm not sure when it returns to the fleet, but I see no point in doing such extensive maintenance on a ship bound for moth balls this year (unlike the Kennedy, who had it's SRA clipped and deferred due to it's decomm). I predict it'll go out for one more deployment, then end with it's decomm'ing. The Washington will then shortly replace her. If it works any way like the last forward-deployed hull swap, then the Cat will pass the Baton in Japan to the Washington, rather than in California, then return to the US for it's technical decomm'ing.



But, if the predictions of her doom are true, then there will be a conflict between us and Taiwan vs. China sometime during her next and last deployment. Deadline = Late 2008.

I've been advised by my Navy contact that there are two things that may set off China.

1- China prefers not to do anything BEFORE the 2008 Olympics. If, say, someone were to offend China during or afterwards ...game on.

2- He advised that the US is using an incentive to keep China at bay ...something I prefer to call "tribute". When the money falls off, then China saber-rattles. If we stopped paying, or the terms became unreasonable ...game on.

He considers China to be our A #1 threat, big time. Russia is no big deal (they're shrinking, but modernizing, their navy is shifting from open water fighters to coastal defense because they have no abroad threat anymore, outside their imaginations, sooner or later they'll wake up and smell the coffee ...I disagree on some points, but what do I know), and Iran is pathetic.

About the Lincoln, they're still in DPIA maintenance, but it seems they're in the final stages, and may be getting underway soon, similar to what the Truman did. I'm not sure when they may deploy. I tend to think, with the current burden on Pacific strike groups, by the time Lincoln is ready the burden would have shifted to Atlantic Fleet groups. The Lincoln would then be relegated to a surge carrier role until they're needed (late 2008? I need to spend some time projecting it out).

Just want to get some feedback on this info, does it seem plausible to anyone? I don't know what to think about it yet, there are many factors to work in. China is rapidly building up its amphibious capabilities, but they wouldn't miss the chance on the olympics in 08. Is it possible that this conflict is coming on faster that it is projected by some to occur?

Scroll down below Naval Activity and Unit deployment and availiability

[edit on 5/7/2007 by ludaChris]

Sorry, but I have to disagree. The only thing that will set the Chinese against their own people (as they truly see it) would be an open declaration of independence and from what I gather the Taiwanese people don't really want the hassle they know it will cause.

There maybe a lot of government who-ha on the Taiwanese side, but if China decides to get all upity and have a pop at the US it will be nothing to do with Taiwan. The more pressing problem could be if China and Japan start holding hands and playing nicely together.

Originally posted by ChiKeyMonKey
Sorry, but I have to disagree. The only thing that will set the Chinese against their own people (as they truly see it) would be an open declaration of independence and from what I gather the Taiwanese people don't really want the hassle they know it will cause.

There maybe a lot of government who-ha on the Taiwanese side, but if China decides to get all upity and have a pop at the US it will be nothing to do with Taiwan. The more pressing problem could be if China and Japan start holding hands and playing nicely together.

The Chinese do plenty of saber-rattling of their own. And just to clear it up, I didnt put this forward as my opinion or prediction of what will happen, just asking questions based on what I read. I doubt China and Japan will be playing nicely as long as the US holds any influence in the region.