Oil production in the world close to peak

Oil production in the world close to peak

www.physorg.com

In a worst-case scenario, global oil production may reach its peak next year, before starting to decline. In a best-case scenario, this peak would not be reached until 2018. These are the estimates made by Fredrik Robelius, whose doctoral dissertation estimates future oil production on the basis of the largest oil fields. The dissertation will be publicly defended at Uppsala University in Sweden on March 30.

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Worst case: aw crap.

Best case: aw poop.

www.physorg.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

I fail to see the problem. There are lots of technological alternatives to petroleum. Wanna know how we got light bulbs? Whale oil got too expensive.

Either way living past 2018 which is in my forseeable future does not look good for our current state of living. I wonder if he factored in the rising increase in population and the development of alternative fuel.

I will say this whole thing may be honest study on peak oil our it may be propaganda for oil companies to contiunally rise prices and feed the humongous profit they receive every year.

Wanna know how we got light bulbs? Whale oil got too expensive.

Our light bulb has yet to be illuminated. When it finally is, it will take more than a decade to proliferate. The current resource wars are just a glimmer of what's to come.

I wonder if he factored in the rising increase in population and the development of alternative fuel.

He developed a model based on historical production, the total exploitable reserves of the giant fields, and their rate of diminution. The model assumes that oil fields have a constant rate of diminution, which Robelius has verified by studying a number of giant oilfields where production has waned. The analysis shows that an annual rate of diminution between 6 and 16 percent is reasonable.

[edit on 30-3-2007 by apc]

Originally posted by Revelmonk
I will say this whole thing may be honest study on peak oil our it may be propaganda for oil companies to contiunally rise prices and feed the humongous profit they receive every year.

But a funny little thing happens when the Price of Oil goes up. The amount of money being spent on alternative fuel R&D skyrockets. Why would they purposefully create more competition for themselves? That is not how Monopolies like to operate. If it were up to OPEC, they'd have the price of oil at least 10-15 dollars below what it would take to make a whole range of fuels/energy sources viable(including Shale as the Majority of that is in non-OPEC countries), meanwhile while all this is going on Saudi Arabia continually cuts production in order to "keep prices afloat" which I believe is OPEC speak for "We're running out and don't want to say it outright."