If the US attacks Iran, will China make a move for Tiawan - the start of a chain reaction?

Given the recent news reports of a possible US troop build up on the Iranian border, would China take this perfect oportunity to make a play for Taiwan.

It would take some balls for China to make a play for Taiwan. I cant imagine a better time.

China may need to consider the benefits/costs of such an action:

Benefits (both monetary and non monetary)

Gaining control of the Taiwan Economy/technology/infrastructure.
"Unifies" China - national pride
Cements their regional power/dominance

Costs

Sanctions - tariffs - quotas - embargoes on trade.
Massive implications for an export led growth economy
Losing the Olympic games
Significant military casualties
Damage international credibility.
Military build ups by Russia and Japan - ensuing arms race


On a final point if China went for Taiwan - would North Korea take a shot at South Korea or even Japan? Would North Korean and Japan become allies in the greater conflict faced common enemies?

I think the odds are slim of that occuring.
The Chinese government needs the Taiwan issue as a unifying national goal or problem to help overcome the many other forces threatening a civil war.

I agree, very slim. It would only cause problems for them right now.

And no way in hell Japan an NK would unite.

Also remember that the U.S. has two fleets. One for the Atlantic and one for the Pacific.

One thing to remember about the current conflicts with Iran is the situation dealing with Brittish Marines being held.

I can't remember if it was 15 or 20 years ago but Iran tried the same thing. The Brittish strong armed them into giving up their hostages but today the playing field different.

I'm very interested to see how both the U.S and the U.K are going to deal with this situation.

Arcticnull

Opps - i meant China and NK unite... :

(cant seem to edit)

[edit on 1-4-2007 by Vanguard]