Turkey Getting Ready for Spring Offensive vs Kurds in Northern Iraq - US Plays Both Sides.

This is not getting a lot of media exposure but things look like they are going to get even more complicated in the Middle East.

A third front may be opening up in Iraq this spring with an offensive by Turkey against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The same group who are supposedly benefitting from training by Israeli Special forces (link). As revealed by Seymour Hersh, the PKK's sister organisation, the Iran-based Kurdistan Free Life party is supported by and working with the US covertly in parts of Iran to destabilise the Iranian government (link).

In the face of inaction and empty promisses from Washington, not to mention the Israeli and US support for the Iranian branch of the organisation, it looks like Turkey is getting ready for a spring offensive:

Turkey readying for spring offensive against PKK

The leaves of military personnel have been canceled and additional forces have been deployed to the border with Iraq as the military apparently prepares for an operation against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The military put all troops on alert at the Iraqi border after receiving intelligence reports that the PKK would carry out attacks as the snow melts in mountain passes, thus easing passage from Iraq to Turkey.

On March 10 Land Forces Commander Gen. İlker Başbuğ visited Diyarbakır in southeastern Anatolia and said that he went to the area to evaluate the current state of affairs with respect to internal security operations under way in the region as well as developments that were likely to arise in spring and summer.

One week after Başbuğ’s visit, the 2nd and 3rd Armies deployed in the border region were put on alert while Turkish troops were sent to the border and were significantly reinforced. The leaves of military personnel of Turkish troops in Hakkari, Şırnak, Batman and Diyarbakır have been canceled for a period of three months, whicle heavy restrictions have been imposed on the leaves of troops located to the west of these provinces.

Flights across the border by aircraft and helicopters of the Land Aviation Command in Diyarbakır have been stepped up. Alpine Commando Brigades in Şırnak and Hakkari were deployed to the border. All of the 7th Corps military equipment in Diyarbakır, particularly that of the 23rd Division Command and 21st Border Division Command, was renewed, and new weapons have been supplied.

Despite some reports that the US has given the green light to these operations (link) others are reporting that the US is desperately trying to assure the Turkish government and avert such operations:

US struggles to avert Turkish intervention in northern Iraq

The US is scrambling to head off a "disastrous" Turkish military intervention in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq that threatens to derail the Baghdad security surge and open up a third front in the battle to save Iraq from disintegration.

Senior Bush administration officials have assured Turkey in recent days that US forces will increase efforts to root out Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK) guerrillas enjoying safe haven in the Qandil mountains, on the Iraq-Iran-Turkey border.

But Abdullah Gul, Turkey's foreign minister, MPs, military chiefs and diplomats say up to 3,800 PKK fighters are preparing for attacks in south-east Turkey — and Turkey is ready to hit back if the Americans fail to act. "We will do what we have to do, we will do what is necessary. Nothing is ruled out," Mr Gul said.

Several other factors are adding to the tension between the Nato partners:

The firm Turkish belief that the US is playing a double game in northern Iraq. Officials say the CIA is covertly funding and arming the PKK's sister organisation, the Iran-based Kurdistan Free Life party, to destabilise the Iranian government.

US acquiescence in plans to hold a referendum in oil-rich Kirkuk in northern Iraq. Turkey suspects Iraqi Kurds are seeking control of Kirkuk as a prelude to the creation of an independent Kurdistan.

Anyone who knows anything about the history of the region will immediately recognise that these developments spell big trouble. The Turks will ignore Washington and it's other NATO partners and do what it deems necessary regardless of the consequences.
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I have 2 big threads on Kurdistan.. "Big" in research no one actually replies..

Anyways,

Kurdistan as a 250,000 man fully trained army now.. something that has greatly pissed off Turkey and Iran..

If Turkey begins any kind of offensive to ethnically cleanse (again) the Kurds I see Kurdistan taking quite a bit of land away from Turkey.. which could lead to all out geurilla warfare because if Kurdistan is formed, Turkey looses its monopoly over the Middle East with water.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
I have 2 big threads on Kurdistan.. "Big" in research no one actually replies..

By all means, link them here. The more cross linking between all these stories, the better the research value and the better people's ability to understand what is going on.
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Screw Turkey, those bastards used to burn down entire Kurd villages, rounding people up in their homes and burning the house. I wish they would try to do something now, it'll be something they regret for generations to come.


Btw, if you guys have problems seeing my posts, can one of you mods please help fix it? I've had several people tell me that they can only see my post if they hit the reply button. Thanks in advance.

[edit on 24-3-2007 by Impreza]

I wonder if this could be related: Iraq's Kurds to go it alone on oil deals
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In the very least the US should provide security for the Kurds if needed.
Why isnt US government doing more to highlight the success of the Kurds in northern Iraq ?
The Kurds appear to be the model the US was looking for after they removed Saddam .

Well I imagine that our own oil hungry country will be making sure that the Kurdish areas are protected due to their oil.

However, the Kurdish people are having their own problems when it comes to the model of democracy that is to become an example for Iraq.

They have internal turmoil between the different groups that made their government.

Seems that when it comes to oil and power everybody that sits higher up wants a piece of the pie while the rest of the population has to deal with who is going to get control of what.

Internal Divisions Threaten Kurdish Unity

Right now everybody is fighting for a piece of the rights to drill in the area, from Turkey already having operations in the area, China, US and UK are also trying to get in.

I do not understand how Turkey can be trying to go on the Kurds when it is already a nearly finished oil pipe from the region of Kirkut into Turkey that will obviously benefits that country.

edit: fixed link


[edit on 3/25/2007 by Gools]

Good find Marg.
The important thing is that the Kurds aren't blowing themselves up in market places so a political frame work where more political party's could be created.
All the political factions will have to be wary of Turkeys inference and attempts to keep the Kurds divided.

I think that the political process was always going to hit bumps in the road after Saddam was removed from power. You can deal with moderates but extremists can only be isolated and killed or taken out of the action some other way.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
I have 2 big threads on Kurdistan.. "Big" in research no one actually replies..

Anyways,

Kurdistan as a 250,000 man fully trained army now.. something that has greatly pissed off Turkey and Iran..

If Turkey begins any kind of offensive to ethnically cleanse (again) the Kurds I see Kurdistan taking quite a bit of land away from Turkey.. which could lead to all out geurilla warfare because if Kurdistan is formed, Turkey looses its monopoly over the Middle East with water.

Can u post the links please..thx.

Originally posted by Impreza
Btw, if you guys have problems seeing my posts,

No problems here.
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Originally posted by marg6043


I do not understand how Turkey can be trying to go on the Kurds when it is already a nearly finished oil pipe from the region of Kirkut into Turkey that will obviously benefits that country.

The Kirkuk pipeline is unreliable since it has been sabotaged so many times. So now they have to find a different way to get the oil out. They are using trucks, but that is so much more expensive.

I suspect that a primary role of these troops being trained will be to restore and secure the functionality of the Kirkuk pipeline.

Someone here had posted a map of the Kirkuk pipeline a few months back. If anyone has a pointer to it, please post a link.

Gools

Here is the Kurdistan threads I had made..

Kurdistan follow up

Original Thread

The follow up is just to let people know the further progress being made in the region ... because it is never on the news..

More info on US support of the Kurds: U.S. Sponsoring Kurdish Guerilla Attacks Inside Iran
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The "us supporting attacks on Iran" bit is a complete garbage honestly..

The way Kurdistan operates is rather delicate for the US - hence no obvious support from the United States.. while we have offered money, most of what Kurdistan actually uses is self produced.. that is.. weapons tend to be smuggled in through Turkey, via Armenia - Georgia and into old soviet states.. the black market has exploded in Kurdistan..

Their military was trained by American support teams, though mostly self-funded (the US doesn't like them having an army separate from Iraq's however, we like not having people die there..)

Kurdish MILITANTS are funded by the PKK a group the US tries its best not to associate with, as many Kurds try not to either..

They are the separatist in Iran and Turkey.. airport bombing, various terrorist attacks.. thats the PKK and they are also self funded mostly through black market oil from Iran, illegal weapons from Turkey, or drug smuggling from all over the Mid East into Turkey.

Typical attacks are much like Al Quada, they try to simultaneously bomb for greater effect and always claim responsibility..

They tend to try and mock the IRA - - they hide in normal homes (as normal for a Kurd in Turkey) and when called up, attack and go back into hiding.. it is part of a separatist movement that is not associated with Southern Kurdistan (aka Northern Iraq) however, the Kurdish government is sympathetic to the cause, as they would love to see a united Kurdistan.

Does the US "help" -- well no doubt, there are many, many groups we give bonuses to.. but a full funding.. no, that is not true at all.. maybe a slide of information here, a magical box of weapons from the sky.. (Bahrain anyone?) but we do not pump arms and money because its already there.. they seem to have mastered selling oil and weapons on the black market for the cash they need.

Aside from all of that, there is only one "major" Kurdish city in Iran, the rest is uninhabited nomadic land or small villages.. its usually clans clashing with Iranian security forces.. and not as uncommon as one would think..

Originally posted by Rockpuck
I have 2 big threads on Kurdistan.. "Big" in research no one actually replies..

Anyways,

Kurdistan as a 250,000 man fully trained army now.. something that has greatly pissed off Turkey and Iran..

If Turkey begins any kind of offensive to ethnically cleanse (again) the Kurds I see Kurdistan taking quite a bit of land away from Turkey.. which could lead to all out geurilla warfare because if Kurdistan is formed, Turkey looses its monopoly over the Middle East with water.

Turkey has a VERY large and VERY powerfull regional army. They are one of the largest armies in the world and they have the 3rd most f16s in the world. I wouldnt be against them.

VERY TRUE friend, very true.. Turkey has a very able army...

However there is also an estimated 13 million Kurds living in Turkey.. currently almost all of East Turkey is Kurd majority.. held intact by the military.. needed to guard water assets.. (it is estimated Turkey's monopoly over water by the end of this century will make it worth more then oil)

I am not saying 13 million kurds will rise up.. no .. some will .. most would be slaughtered.. they are tough fighters but simply no match.

however, any actions against Kurdistan eliminate Turkey as a trading partner with the EU - The French finally did something right there - not to mention American sanctions most likely.. Kurdistan would have no allies in the conflict.. perhaps sympathy from Armenia and Georgia.. Iran would assist Turkey.. however Russia is not exactly buddy buddy with Turkey, which they saw as a betrayal when they accepted NATO nuclear weapons against the USSR.. the whole thing would make for a interesting political battle.. if real war broke out Kurdistan would be destroyed.. but hopefully the West will take action against Turkey.

This is just an opinion originated from my readings and understanding of the situation.

Update:

Turkey moves 50,000 troops to Iraq border

This could get ugly real fast.

The Kurdish part of Iraq is really the only stable part of the country (at least for now).
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