Most people are thinking short-term.

The thing that strikes me as I read this forum is that it seems to be primarily short-term survival. Many people in this forum are quite well-prepared for an ice storm, a hurricane, or even a short military invasion.

But...

The big question: If something major happens that disrupts the world entirely, where will you be in 30 years? This is truely the worst case scenario

1. You will have no fuel left within months - Unless you manage to set up your own oil rig. Gas stations will all be dry or unusable. All your supplies will have run down. All cars, generators, and other fuel-based objects will have to be thrown aside.

2. You will have no ammunition left within months - There is only a limited amount of ammunition out there. After everyone has shot all that there is to shoot, and after it has all been traded and used, that is it. After your gun breaks, either from normal use, or because no one seems to include gun oil in their survival kit, it is useless too. You aren't going to kill a deer with your gun any more, unless you plan on sneaking up and whacking it with it.

3. You will have no firestarter left within years - Whether you are using lighters, matches, or even flint, it is going to slowly run out. Flicker by flicker, shaving by shaving, your main source of fire will be gone.

When it comes down to it, the only way to survive in the LONG TERM is to become more in tune with nature.

Yes you have read about it, but have you ever actually successfully made a shelter out of tree branches or otherwise?

Everyone knows that you can make fire by rubbing sticks or with a fire bow, but how many people in North America can actually produce fire with these methods on a constant basis?

Do you know what kind of plants in your area and extended area are edible, or are you going to stick with just eating grass for the rest of your life?

Have you ever made a primitive trap yourself, or accurately shot a bow that you made yourself and actually had enough power to bring down an animal?

How are you going to make new clothes after the ones you take with you wear out? They will.


You may be able to survive a week with your canned food and generators, but what are you going to do when the only shelter is rubble, and the only supplies you have are your body and brain?

Here is a link with some of the skills I have mentioned, if you are interested in learning them. Some of the tools and things made on this site look amazing:

Primitive Ways

Post any more links or information on the topic that you have to share.

You'll know you're truely ready to survive when you would feel comfortable simply walking out of your house in plain clothes and wandering away from civilization to live off of nothing but the land.

All of your fancy equipment will give you a nice head-start, but eventually everyone will be living like cavemen again.

This site also has some good (although generic) information:

www.wilderness-survival.net...

[edit on 17-1-2007 by Yarcofin]

Great series on the BBC at the moment called Ray Mears' Wild Food. Book due out toward the end of the year

www.bbc.co.uk...

Yarcofin.

I agree with you to a point. That point being: Before you can worry longterm, you have to be able to survive short term first. But past that minor point, you're correct, sir.

Yarcofin you make a good point however...

Yes you have read about it, but have you ever actually successfully made a shelter out of tree branches or otherwise?

In 30 years unless it is shaken down or demolished for regeneration, my house will still be standing so i won't need to build a house of sticks.

TextDo you know what kind of plants in your area and extended area are edible, or are you going to stick with just eating grass for the rest of your life?

I know that if the worse came to the worse i would manage with chickens and a pig or two. We already grow vegetables.

How are you going to make new clothes after the ones you take with you wear out? They will.

What is the likely hood of this happening, If clothes were in short supply, i would make sure that the ones i currently owned were well looked after and repaired when necessary.

If what you are syaing did come about, the bricks would still be there to rebuild, the basics needed to grow basic foodstuffs would still be there, we would learn how to make fire.

Even though its sometimes hard to believe, we are an intelligent race and i cant see this kind of situation ever happening.

We will run out of fossil fuels, we ned to start using the alternatives sooner than later.

I think the point of short term survival is to have ADVANTAGE over those less prepared (and, of course, to survive). If a long term situation occurs then the playing field is leveled and different tools will be required to survive.
In this information age of corporatism, money and apathetic disregard are the tools required to get ahead. Survival of the fittest in that scenario requires a good credit rating, nice car, etc. In an apocalyptic scenario, one's Ipod isn't going to be very helpful. Survival of the fittest in that scenario will require a certain amount of brute strength, primitive skills and abilities, good health.
I think one of the reasons that so many "grass roots" people are getting on board with the survivalists is that, with an increasing disparity between the haves and have nots, most of the have nots realize that they stand a better chance of surviving in an apocalyptic situation than in a corporate one. No matter how technologically advanced we get, as a species, we should never get too far away from our roots by depending totally on technology. One prolonged power outage and we're all back to the dark ages. One's PhD doesn't do much good if you're starving, freezing, dodging bullets, lost at sea, etc. Self-reliance should be taught at all levels of our development so that it becomes part of our natural, everyday thinking and we are never unprepared for "situation x".

i doubt that after a world wide event like localized Chernoble/Hiroshima/Nagasaki events,
that individuals would have a 30 year horizon on their minds.

the day-to-day survival mode would exhaust 90% before 15-20 years,
now the kids & 10-20 year olds might last for a 30 year future,
but the adults on that fateful day or fortnight most likely wouldn't

on the otherhand, unless there was a universal extinction event
past experience shows us that men & technological innovation will survive & flourish.

as for your #3. firestarter, exhausted sources.....
i keep a 4" magnifying glass in my kit, & with a little effort & chopping i can find & secure enough 'fat-light' to kindle a fire as needed

i shudder to imagine a bunch of Rambo dudes as the top-of-the-heap in your futuristic scenario...and ??? the reason to make more of the fringe elements aware.

Contemplating the long term is almost too much. Any number of scenarios could bring it about, however. What if it's an us vs. them. The haves hole up in their gated communities and the rest fend for themselves. What if the have nots are tracked down like a pack of dogs, then evasion would be neccessary. If it's an epic event then each will have to cling to life as best they can. Best to be prepared, although, preparation doesn't insure survival.

Engine Fuel: wood gas or methane, ethanol and methanol, biodiesel. Gunpowders can be made from readily available and naturally occurring sources. Electricity and batteries are nearly as simple with wind and hydropowered generators. The first generators/motors were all hand made windings. Most of our technology isn't going away unless there's some sort of disease that makes everyone illiterate or burns all the books.

Great site posts, I added them to my favorites and will be doing more learning on the primitive ways.

Short term survival is only one step of your survival preparations you should be preparing both for short term and long term at the same time. My point is it should all be part of your plan.

Can't you start a fire hitting metal against metal?

I know when I had a flea market booth, I had a guy put up a wall for me. He used nails which were designed to go through concrete and a hammer to put the wall up and sparks were flying everywhere.

Originally posted by crgintx
Gunpowders can be made from readily available and naturally occurring sources.

Ever try to make gunpowder from gathered materials? I have and it is not that easy. First finding the required materials can be difficult. They are not that readily available in all areas. Second, getting a sufficient amount can be a problem. Third, getting the mixture just right is no easy game. The mixture has to be just right or it fizzles. It takes considerable effort and most people don't have the skills needed.

Making a good bow on the other hand is far easier.

Originally posted by Terapin

Originally posted by crgintx
Gunpowders can be made from readily available and naturally occurring sources.

Ever try to make gunpowder from gathered materials? I have and it is not that easy. First finding the required materials can be difficult. They are not that readily available in all areas. Second, getting a sufficient amount can be a problem. Third, getting the mixture just right is no easy game. The mixture has to be just right or it fizzles. It takes considerable effort and most people don't have the skills needed.

Making a good bow on the other hand is far easier.

Not only are gunpowders difficult to correctly manufacture they are also not that easy to reliably ignite in a primitive firearm. Emphasis here on Reliably ignite. How many of you have on hand a supply of primers..not just black powder primers....but smokeless primers too?? Would most of us even know what to do with them??

Do not some of the modern black powder firearms use modern primers to ignite instead of the older percussion caps?

As I recall the designs...I think the earliest firearms were a match lock design with some kind of burning wick or even a simple fire applied to a line of powder going through a priming hole. Then wheel lock to flintlock then percussion unto rimfire and finally center fire. The powder was not always the problem but the reliable ignition device....historically speaking.

This also includes using black powder for a blasting/construction tool.....reliable ignition.

If you have ever tried to make a home made pipe bomb and then not have it go off reliably and dependably ....you tend to stand around in a group and look at each other thinking...which one of us is going to be stupid enough to walk over and see what the problem is?? See what I mean???


Thanks,
Orangetom

Originally posted by seagull
Before you can worry longterm, you have to be able to survive short term first. But past that minor point, you're correct, sir.

I would have to agree as well. If you can get past the intial week of a disaster / revolution / whatever, you can always figure stuff out as needed. As a practical matter most do not have the room or the resources or both to plan out a ultra long term survival plan.

Not that its a bad thing to think of those things, but just getting past the first week will improve you long term survival odds by a huge margin.

BTW Kirk was able to make a cannon and gunpowder with just stuff lying around so I have no doubt I could as well

[edit on 1/21/07 by FredT]

It would be hard to imagine being completely prepared for all scenarios, unless you have a large budget. The point of this thread is excellent.
How many people in metropolitan areas would die from the elements, or even their lack of knowledge about growing vegetables? Look at what has happened with the Mid-West ice storms...no electricity, food supplies run short...people have been dying from carbon monoxide poisoning from running generators indoors! We ( as modern humans ), have sacrificed tens of thousands of years' worth of collective knowledge on the alter of comfort and convenience. It's sad to say, but I do believe that now is the time to learn these skills and prepare. As I see it, being a smart, effecient scavenger and master of improvising would eventually be key skills.
Thanx to all of you for sharing your information resources, everybody keep fighting the good fight!

Actualy I did think of this but by thread died out.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Hope that shows that some of us are thinking long term.

Yarcofin And others.
I don't believe were thinking short term only. Its what we talk about alot because its what we can do something about.

If we die today tomorrow doesn't matter. Speaking only for myself I've tried to do a happy mix of equipment to get me past the short term and into the long term.

My Family and I will often try things "The old fashion way" first to see what it takes. Simple things like the garden we planted last spring were done without any kind of power tools. No rototiller or even a hose. The water was brought by bucket full using the old hand pump. We discovered that a few rabbits can take out a garden in record time. We also discovered that some cardboard cut outs of a few common house cats and of birds of prey on a stick moved every few days will mostly keep the rabbits away. The knowledge to get thru today is first priority because tomorrow is of no use to a dead person.

I'm a retired AF munitions system specialist aka Ammo Troop with a good deal of experience of chemistry. Blackpowder is really the wrong way to go for making propellant for firearms use due to its tendency to absorb moisture it make it difficult to store and hard to ignite. Smokeless powders aren't as difficult to produce as the authorities would have you believe. Primer mix isn't all that hard either. I won't go into any of the detail here because these sites are routinely scanned by the US alphabet dept's. Most folks hear the word 'explosive' and get real nervous but I'm telling you that many more people are/have been killed handling liquid and gaseous fuels than ever handling explosives. Yes, one mistake will kill or maim if you're handling explosives but there are literally hundreds of household chemicals that can and do kill quicker than any explosive will. If unconfined most high explosives will burn slowly and smoky. If you don't know how to handle and make explosives, my advice is to learn how through the proper channels. Find your local high power model rocketry club would be a good start, they often hold classes and seminars on how to make propellants.

[edit on 22-1-2007 by crgintx]

Well I hope some people have come to new realizations about the extent that survival really covers.

As mentioned, it is a lot easier to get a thorough knowledge on making primitive tools and weapons than to figure out how to create some more complex explosives and advanced weapons in nature. In my opinion, a proper bow, or even a simple sling with a rock in it, can be as effective as a self-made gun, and constructed in a mere fraction of the time.

Angryamerican made a good point about farming. Eventually in your survival, you will come to a point where you meet up with many other survivors. In the event that you don't all try to kill each other for food and tools, and manage to work together, you will need to start creating a society again. This is the point where you will want to shift from temporary survival skills to more permanent ones. Instead of making temporary shelters and living like nomads, you will eventually settle into one location and want to make a log cabin (probably the biggest project you would undertake), and set up a small farm so that you don't have to hunt and gather entirely to survive. Getting seeds from edible plants may be the only more difficult part of the process.

I'm glad that some people are interested to learn about the skills needed for more long-term survival. Even if you will never use skills like making a fire with sticks or making leather yourself, it is an interesting look into the past, and it's also good exercise . If you enjoy camping, you could encorporate some of these skills into your experience and you will probably enjoy it more as well.

This is an excellent point and one everyone would do well to remember. I am presently putting together a plan for the rebuilding (or creation) of an entire country from the ground up. Once I have it up, I'll post the link in here.

This is great thread but the premise of going back to pre-Industrial Age technology I believe is patently unrealistic. I agree that a lot of people are technologically ignorant and dependent on society for all their needs. I've sat down with a great deal of folks who are basically fearful of the label "nerd and geek" but can tell you everyone sports stat you can care to name.

I came from a lower-middle class background. My father was the son of an old farmer/rancher. He was taught to fix things rather than throw them away. He wasn't into hunting/fishing but I can't think of a time when we didn't have fruit and nut trees and a vegetable garden of some sort. I've learned to stealth garden in recent years. It's basically finding edible native or wild plants that grow in your area and allowing them to flourish without interference. Lots of vegetables can also grow in pots and raised bed gardens. Find where easily concealable carb sources like mesquite bean pods, cattails and kudzu root grows. Most people don't think to look on these common pest plants as food but they have sustained countless generations of humans. In a true survival situation, knowledge like this will mean the difference between life and death.