Future & Evolution of American Militias

The Future of American Militias
[published first quarter, 2005]

By Justin Oldham

Click on this Podcast Link and scroll down to the October 23 of 2006 interview link to listen.

You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know that today's American militias will have to modernize and embrace new ideas if they want to survive. Recent changes in U.S. domestic law and military capability could spell trouble for existing militias if they don't make allowances for the threats that will come from within. This goes well beyond the Patriot Act, body armor, and wireless phones. It means a total reassessment of what they do, how they do it, and why.

Today's militias can trace their collective heritage back to the earliest uncertain days of the American Revolution. Even then, armed revolt was seen as the absolute last resort when faced with unchecked authority. Over the last two centuries, these militias have been alternately praised and denounced, depending on the mood of each decade. In spite of all that turmoil, they are still with us. Some militias are little more than social clubs. Others are quite radical. Like the conspirators in my novel, most hope they will never be needed.

We may never need to call on these patriots, but one thing is certain: today's militias need to take stock of their situation. Hard questions need to be asked. Washington is taking the anti-terrorist fight to our enemies overseas, but is also preparing our own military to be used against us at home. If it happens, it'll be done "for our own good." If and when transnational terrorists do become active on U.S. soil, our own government might not be able to resist the temptation to both fight back and "clean house" at the same time. If it comes to that, the militias may be our best hope for preserving the future of this country we hold so dear.

I don't make this charge lightly. Please let me explain my thinking. There's a trend in government today that we can all see. Turn on your t.v. or pick up a newspaper, and it's there. Federal authority is expanding. Since October 2001, Congress and the President have asked for, and been granted, more new authorities than FDR had at the height of World War Two. The dark side of this growth in power can be seen in the areas of civil rights, law enforcement, and surveillance.

It has never been so easy for the Federal government to spy on you, arrest you, or even hold you, as it is now. J. Edgar Hoover never had this much authority when he ran the FBI with an iron fist during the worst of the Red Scare. Add to this the fact that very few governments ever give back any of the power they take and you can see where I'm going with this. This is the modern threat our militias will face if this power-grabbing trend continues.

Under these conditions, the militias must fend for themselves. There is no one single mechanism to ensure their survival. Being aware of the Federal government's expansionist trend makes for a good start, but it also fosters a lot of worry. How do you beat THAT? With history as our guide, we can look at a few common-sense options.

In many respects, today's career politicians are doing what's in their best interests. If the Federal government has more power, so do they. The same holds true for the top civil servants who lead the bureaucracy. In both cases, each camp is inhabited by a vocal majority that really does think they're doing what's good for you. Senior politicians lead their parties. Senior supervisors lead their agencies. Both groups are misled by a cunning minority.

How do you overcome them? Run for office. Get out and vote. Militias, as organized groups, can organize this. Starting at the local level, vote for people you can trust or run for office as somebody who can be trusted. Do the same thing at the state level. Do your homework and send people to D.C. who have proven their honesty and integrity in your home state. If you must, be the person that gets sent to Washington. People who don't covet power are the best candidates to use it, as they can be trusted to give it back when the job is done.

21st century militias will need more political savvy. They'll need it to avoid being slandered by the media and also to recruit. If a militia can fund war games and keep its armory stocked, it should think about its public image and how to manage it. In those cases where the group doesn't want to be politically active, it might still need a good media image if its membership is large. By the end of this decade, it's quite likely the American media will once again focus its harsh limelight on the more well-known militias. Without more political skill and a better media image, they won't be able to defend themselves against the false charges that will surely come.

If transnational terror groups start their dirty work on U.S. soil, politicians and bureaucrats in Washington will see it as a dual opportunity: defend against the terrorists and neutralize dissent on the home front. Naturally, doing both will require greater levels of power and authority. You'll see this one coming, if things go that far. Why? Just one thing. The media still treats homegrown patriotic militias like they could be terrorist cells. The temptation to label them as such will be overpowering. Because militias are known opponents of big government and politicians with too much power, they will be seen as easy targets.

How do you overcome that? Voting for reform will only do so much. It will take decades for reform-minded politicians to have an impact on a trend that has lasted for 60 years. Even if a militia does have a good media image or stays well out of public view, it can still be misrepresented. Under these conditions, knowing your rights won't be enough.

The politically aware and media-sensitive militias of the near future won't be able to stop the government's legislative steamroller, nor will they be able to prevent the pasting they'll take by the media. Like the conspirators in my book, they'll have to plan for it and hope it doesn't happen. They can advocate for reform or revolution as they see fit, as long as they're aware of the facts. As one of my characters might say, "Our job is to know it might happen and be ready for it."


The Evolution of American Militias
[published 1st quarter, 2005]

By Justin Oldham

Resources

You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know that today's American militias will have to change the way they do business if they want to avoid the wrath of an increasingly hostile Federal government. U.S. foreign policy has always been a forecaster of things to come on the home front. Today's American foreign policy makes it quite clear that U.S. militias will be at risk by the end of this decade.

In the past, when our Federal government has pursued an agenda overseas, we've been able to see how that same bureaucracy will deal with us here at home. Before the trans-national terrorist threat emerged, our elected leaders were pre-occupied with matters of trade and human rights. In both cases, we saw a lot of activity on domestic soil aimed in the same directions. Some of it we agreed with, and some of it we didn't. NAFTA (North American Free-Trade Agreement) would be the best and most recent example.

As our government grapples with the threat of trans-national terror, we are faced with a growing number of disturbing indicators. Each time the government adopts a new anti-terrorist measure, it comes at the expense of just a few more of our civil liberties. Much of the new "protection" legislation that comes off Capitol Hill these days presumes that the next threat will come from hostile forces operating inside U.S. borders.

It's not really up for debate. In time, hostile forces will take action on U.S. soil. Anything these people do will be despicable and under-handed. If we're not careful, our own government might use that crisis as an excuse to clamp down on legitimate dissent. If certain officials in Washing feel the need to rally support, the good standing of our own militias might be the cost of that political power play.

It's already been said that today's militias should become more politically aware and media-savvy. As meaningful as that should be, it won't be enough to preserve one of our most fundamentally important Constitutional rights. Modern militias should assume that they'll be targeted at some point. This may not happen militarily, but it will certainly happen politically.

The actions at Ruby Ridge and Waco have long since demonstrated the need for modern militias to adapt their unconventional warfare tactics. De-centralized command and dispersion of money and supplies should now take on a whole new level of importance for group planners. No matter how much money and manpower they put in to their public images, the fact remains that they will be out-spent by Government and private-sector media conglomerates.

As dissenters of big government, militias will be natural targets for career politicians seeking to improve their own fortunes. There may come a time when U.S. militias are forced underground. This means they'll have to actively go in to hiding. Because American militias have such a strong tradition of reluctance to act, this will be the most logical step when the time comes.

As hard as they try, militia leaders in the next decade will have a hard time making the case that the groups they represent are not terrorist cells. Under these conditions as portrayed in my book, Politics & Patriotism: The Fisk Conspiracy, politicians at the Federal level may have too much to gain by making this false charge.

If they start now, most militias can take steps they feel will do them the most good. As complicated as the political side of this equation has become, militia planners should not ignore the military aspect of this problem. Recent advances in electronics now give Federal troops a big advantage. Emphasis on Urban-style tactics and house-to-house combat drill only serve to underscore this point.

Unconventional warfare remains the Patriot's best option to counter this new stance. As effective as civilian weapons may be, they no longer confer as many advantages as they once did. As today's militia members become more politically aware, they should also become more familiar with the capabilities of tomorrow's Federal forces. Like it or not, this is going to mean a re-thinking of traditional guerilla methods.

Knowing this, and knowing that there will always be a reluctance on the part of real Patriots to put these things in to practice, it isn't hard to see how today's militias can evolve in to the organizations they need to be in the world of tomorrow.

The End of Civil Rights: What the U.K.'s new Control Orders mean for YOU
[published first quarter 2005]

By Justin Oldham

You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know it was only a matter of time before we saw this. Britain's parliament has just enacted a new law that allows the government to arrest any U.K. citizen for any reason. Under the terms of these new "Control Orders," those arrested can be held for as long as the government sees fit.

Here's how it started:
www.news24.com...

Here's what it means to you now:
news.scotsman.com...

In my book, Politics & Patriotism: The Fisk Conspiracy, I speculate that such things will eventually happened here in the U.S. As the story unfolds, you are told about the loss of American civil rights over a ten year period. The speed of the British crack-down should tell you a few things about what we will soon be facing.

We've been at war with various trans-national terror groups for the better part of three years. Its not impossible to think we might still be at this seven years from now. The fact of the matter is this. Until certain things happened, we're going to be 'at war' for as long as the career politicians in D.C. want us to be. Yes, we're in danger. Yes, groups like Al Qaeda are true and genuine threats. In spite of all that, there's one thing you may not have considered.

American politicians haven't faced a crisis of this magnitude since the early days of the Cold War. They are now in a position to ask for, and be given, more power than anyone has had since FDR wielded during World War Two. There's no doubt in my mind that this threat can be beaten. As elusive as they are, groups like Al Qaeda will be forced back in to the shadows. I'm worried about what happens afterward. The sad fact is that America's career politicians don't like to give back even the smallest amount of power that has been given to them.

They don't like to give back power they took, either. When our Congress passed the USA Patriot Act in 2001, they took away some of our most important protections. Since then, they've been asking nicely for even more authority to 'protect' us. I don't doubt for a second that some things just need to be done. What I do doubt is their sincerity when they tell us "this is just a temporary measure."

Even now, the BBC is busy broadcasting reports intended to reassure the British people. The people in power are busy giving their word that "this is just a temporary measure." They already have their own version of a National I.D. Card system. These new Control Orders are, from their point of view, a logical extension of that technology. I'm sure that its all being done with the best of intentions. I'm just not sure they thought it through.

That's all I ask. Let's think it through before we invoke our own Control Orders. I wrote a book to showcase what I think MIGHT happen, but even that can only do so much. As you read this, take a moment to think about the consequences of an action like this. If we follow Britain's lead in this matter, who will save US if things go wrong? These new laws target U.K. citizens. If this type of extremist legislation gets enacted here, it'll target YOU.


The Evolution of Terror
[published fist quarter 2005]

By Justin Oldham

You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know who today's trans-natioanl terrorists really are, or what they are about to become. Some are the Muslim extremists we've all seen reported on the evening news. Others are motivated by non-religious causes. Environmentalism. Marxism. Arbortion. A precious few are in it for reasons we'll never understand. In every cases, these groups are headed up by people who know one thing you don't.

Today's Old School terrorists are being replaced by a new breed of pseudo-ideological entrepreneurs. They're in if for the money. They don't owe allegiance to any nation or government. They are so elusive that today's intelligence community can barely track them. CIA, NSA, DIA, and Homeland Security are not yet equipped to deal with this emerging threat. If you pay close attention to what you see on the news, you'll be able to watch this happened.

Terror groups like Al Qaeda and HAMAS represent two ends of a rapidly changing spectrum. In spite of all the bad press, Al Queada is being hunted to the edge of extinction. HAMAS is about to be co-opted by political interests. Within the next two years, the leadership of both groups will be un-employed if they don't change the way they "do business." The Arafat era has come to an end. Both groups have been too successful for their own good. For different reasons, they must adapt or die.

If history is our guide, the well paid leadership of these groups won't WANT to be unemployed. This leaves them with just one choice. They've got to go back in to the shadows from whence they came. After they do a little re-inventing, they'll be back. Hating the United States is big business, and they know it. Their success gave them a certain standing with the American media, which allowed them to operate in the open. Now that the old business model is broken, its time to go back to the drawing board. Once they do this, they'll be back in ways that'll scare you.

Al Qeada is being hunted to the edge of extinction. If nothing else, its becoming too expensive for them to operate as they do now. Their leadership has to change with the times, or they face ruin. From their point of view, there's too much money involved to justify resisting these changes. New recruits are easy to get, and the money they make is nearly untraceable. HAMAS is about to become a political party. Their again, the leadership faces the loss of untracked billions if they just go with the flow. Political parties are corrupt, but they are also answerable (in some measure) to the governments they inhabit. If they don't change their organization names and come up with new ways of doing things, men like Osama Bin Landen risk becoming irrelavant.

Sounds impossible? Consider this. Yasir Arafat refused to change. Neither he nor his organization (the PLO) adapted to the aftermath of a post-Soviet world. The events of 9/11 proved that at least one man and one group understood the need for change, as it related to their cash flow. The American press would like to foster the myth that Bin Laden lives in a cave. People like him with access to untracked money live where they please. Its not a stretch. Groups like HAMAS and Al Qeada have been re-inventing themselves to some degree for centuries. The next 'evolution' for them seems rather obvious.

Politics & Patriotism: The Federal Conspiracy

By Justin Oldham

You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know that America's undeclared culture war is about to enter a new phase. In mid-February 2005, President Bush appointed the nation's first Director of National Intelligence. In the short run, this might help us fight the war on terror. In the long run, we risk the creation of our own Gestapo.

You can read more about the Director of National Intelligence here:
en.wikipedia.org...

In my novel, Politics & Patriotism: The Fisk Conspiracy, I speculate on just how centralized Federal power will be in 2014. As each month passes, a little more of what I wrote comes true. Our elected officials may very well have our best interests in mind, but they're leading us down a path we may regret taking in less than ten years. Bureaucracies are like people. They want to live. Just as we thrive on food, the Judicial, Legislative, and Executive branches of our government thrive on centralized power.

Bush's appointment of a National Intelligence Director (DNI) represents one more step in the centralization of Federal power. this new cabinet officer may very well help us fight the war on terror. This could be just what we need in the short run. In the long run, we may have just given up another small slice of our civil liberties. Because the U.S. Federal government is not known for giving back even the smallest amount of power, we should be worried.

It's not common knowledge, but every cabinet-level official has a staff of considerable size. They've got a lot of people working for them. Inside the beltway, these staff groups jockey for power. Deals are made and 'new authorities' are discovered or created as politics dictates. On the basis of this alone, we should be worried. When Politics becomes more infectious than the Public Service ethic, we should be worried.

More to the point in this case, we should be aware of what the Director of National Intelligence could become. If we keep feeding the Federal beast with more centralized power, the DNI will eventually become a full-blown agency. "The Department of National Intelligence," if such a thing ever comes to be, won't be what you and will I think it should be. If history is any indicator, the implications the term National Intelligence are already clear. In the old Soviet Union, they called it the KGB. In today's Russia, it's called the SVR. Sixty years ago, in Nazi Germany, they called it the Gestapo.

We've already had a small taste of this. For several decades, J. Edgar Hoover ran the FBI with an iron fist. Everything he did was "for our own good," or for the sake of "national security." Thankfully, the excesses of the Red Scare put an end to much of that over-use of centralized power. As harsh as this example is, time has passed, and the voters have forgotten.

Governments always want more power. It's up to us, as voters, to exercise our options to prevent the spread of insidious trends like this one. If we don't stop the growth of centralized power in the Federal bureaucracy, we only have ourselves to blame. If you're still not convinced, keep an eye on the DNI, and see what happens.

The fact of the matter is that American militias will, by nessity, become something other than what what they are known for. It's true that in a last-gasp situaiton that they will become insurgents who may or may not be able to save a dying country, but....before any of that happens...they'll have to be tasked with the dofficult job of being political watchdogs.

When viewed as repositories for what we hold near and dear, it's easy to see how these small weekend groups can eventually becomes more than they are today. The essay work you see posted here is meant to demonstrate the trend, while at the same time showing just "why" this transformation will be necessary.

Here's a little something to think about as you consider what might be in your own future as a militia leader.

As we approach Memorial Day, I'd like to bring THIS to your attention. Even if you do manage to build a transparant organization, you might find yourself and your members on the business end of a government sponsored smear. I bring this to your attention to back up what I said months ago.

It's being reported that politicians in California want to put tracking devices in to handguns. This idea isn't new. It's been talked about in sci-fi for decades. I believe the first time I ran in to it was while reading the novel "Logan's Run," in which the hero gets rid of is gun because it has a tracker in it.

OMG Justin, thats a new and terrible one on me...Tacking devices in guns??? Well better buy up on a boat load of the old style now , as they will be worth their weight in gold if and when that day arrives. Did you read that post today about the mexican military or pot smugglers dressed like them, came over into texas? I would love "Your" take on that one! Ill check back later for your awnser. Antar

With all due respect, that's not actually "new." Drug runners and members ofthe Mexican army have been crossing in to U.S. territory for various reasons long before I was born. This latest news item serves to underscore just how bad our border situation is.

The best way to beat a cosniracy is to spred the truth about what's actually going on. That's why I bring you links to other ATS thread that you may not see. You already know what I think. I'm just trying to give you enough evidence to kick around on your own. When you reach your own conclusions, you become a much more pursuasive speaker.

The biggest problem I can think of with the current American militias is that they are almost always organized by racist, ethnic or religious groups who want to exclude folks along the aforementioned lines. They're very few militias that I've found who are interested in recruiting from a general population.

I think that general militias will start to form when the American SS aka Homeland Security starts demanding that folks get permission for travel as opposed to its current policy of monitoring folks.

Originally posted by crgintx
I think that general militias will start to form when the American SS aka Homeland Security starts demanding that folks get permission for travel as opposed to its current policy of monitoring folks.

I'm already on record about my concerns over the coming cadres, which could be very much like what you suggest. However, we're going to see a few things happen before it goes that far. As the domestic disarmament plan is implemented, Federal agencies will push harder for a National ID card to "combat foriegn and domestic terrorism."

The 'real' American militias will always be in the minority. They will be doomed to defeat and extinction if they don't act to modity their recruitment and behavior as I have suggested in other threads. Even then, the best they can hope for is a fighting chance. U.S. militias will win or lose in the arena of public opinion long before they ever take to the battlefield.

Originally posted by crgintx
The biggest problem I can think of with the current American militias is that they are almost always organized by racist, ethnic or religious groups who want to exclude folks along the aforementioned lines. They're very few militias that I've found who are interested in recruiting from a general population.

I think that general militias will start to form when the American SS aka Homeland Security starts demanding that folks get permission for travel as opposed to its current policy of monitoring folks.

You just hit the nail right on its head, if the militia movement wants to be successful they need to drop the extreme racism, anti government, etc beliefs and become more mainstream.

I'm not sure that it's going to be possible for any militia to be "mainstream." Each group will be made up of a cross-sectional representation of its home town and region, which may be about as mainstream as yo ucan get. Federal agents who infiltrate these groups will be looking for intent, and the means to carry out that intent.

Racial and ethnic hatreds will eventually be viewed by Federal officials as warning signs of future terrorism. To that extent, you can argue that hate groups will be filtered out by their own doings. Constitutionally inspired groups are still going to expeirence a lot of harassament. They will, however, be able to survive longer than hate-inspired groups because they won't present informers with such easy means of providing Federal law enforcement with "probable cause" to initiate searches and make arrests.