China's Geo political strategy

does someone have another link to this video. You tube has removed it for term of use violations.

[edit on 2-4-2007 by tom goose]

Fair Tax has nothing to do with anything, it is a terrible idea. America cannot invent cheap labor like China has, why you figure Fair Tax will do this?

posted by INc2006
We have NEVER been $9 trillion dollars in debt throughout our entire history. Take a look at the numbers. Even if our GDP is number 1 in the world . . It'd be a miracle if we don't ADD on to the deficit each year... let me ask you: HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY IT ALL BACK. We are going to have to sooner or later. Do you have ANY IDEA how we are going to pay it back? [Edited by Don W]

Great powers rarely spell out what is their grand strategy. But grand strategy is one of those things you cannot hide. It is basically what you do. Discounting what you say. Assuming your leadership is coherent as we unfortunately cannot do today in America. Until 2009. But this thread on about China. The Peoples Republic of China. PRC. And not the anomaly, the ambiguous island of Taiwan. Officially known as the Republic of China.

China occupies more than 3 million square miles, about the same as the US without Alaska. No, Justin Oldham, I’m not mad at you. Well over half of China’s population resides in the eastern one third of the country, again, much like the US. Unlike the US, whose single great river system lies in the center, the Mississippi-Missouri system, flowing north to south, China’s three great rivers flow west to east. In the south, the Zhu (Pearl) empties into the Pacific Ocean at Britain’s old Hong Kong and close by to Macao, the Portugese enclave. The middle river, the Yangtze, empties close to Shanghai, the center of China’s robust capitalist experiment, and the northern river, the Yellow, flows into the Bo Hai Bay off the Yellow Sea. It of Three Gorges Dam fame.

Today’s population of China is given as 1.3 b. The US at 300 m. By 2040, India’s population will pass China’s at around 1.5 b. putting it into the unenviable #1 spot. This remarkable progress in population control by China was made possible by the wise ‘one family one child’ program adopted over 40 years ago. Which gives the lie to the fetus fixated foreign alarmists who mindlessly critiqued it but offered no alternative.

I like to say about China that since the start of the 20th century, China has not aggressed outside its own borders. I am invariably confronted with the story of Tibet. Tibet lies on a high plateau and is well isolated from the rest of the world. It is very sparsely populated, about that of Chicago, spread over an area larger than Texas and New Mexico combined. Its capital is at Lhasa.

The Delhi Llama was also ensconced there in an ancient palace. Probably due to its isolation, Tibetan Buddhism is not the same as the Buddhism practiced in China. The Delhi Llama was unwilling to submit to the hegemony of the PRC which ultimately led to the Peoples Liberation Army entering Tibet and reducing its population to strict obedience.

Based on events afterwards, especially the Delhi Llama’s flight from Tibet and the on-going cost to maintain him, I am of the opinion the Delhi Llama was at least a part-time operative for the CIA. Most probably paid on a per piece basis as a stringer is paid by a newspaper. Don’t forget in WW2 the 20th Army Air Force flew 1000s of C46, C47 missions across the Himalayas (called “the hump”) from Burma into western China around Chiang Kai Shek’s temporary capital at Chungking. I find it hard to believe the OSS (now CIA) did not have an outpost there. This area was also the home of the AVG “Flying Tigers” of Gen. Claire Chenault. American Volunteer Group which flew P40s against the Japanese before Pearl Harbor.

History. The Chinese 1912 Revolution ended in 1949, when Mao Zedong bested the American backed Nationalists (KMT). Mao watched them escape to the island of Taiwan a/k/a back then as Formosa (Portugese for beautiful island) under protection of the US Navy. Note: The Japanese took Formosa from China in 1897. It served them as a food source. In 1907 the Japanese took the south half of Sakhalien Island from Russia. In 1910 the Japanese took Korea, primarily for its minerals. In 1930, the Japanese took Manchuria. Somewhat like Hitler’s desire for Lebensraum. Room to grow. End of note.

In 1950, without consultation either at Beijing or Moscow, Kim Il Sung, father of the current Maximum Leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Il, invaded across the 38th parallel into South Korea. His move is often blamed on a miscue by Secretary of State Dean Acheson who spoke of the American “circle of interests” in the Pacific and used a map to demonstrate, drawing a line around Australia, Philippines, Taiwan and Japan but almost unconsciously leaving out South Korea. Like the lady ambassador to Iraq before the 1990 takeover of Kueait. In 1950 both North and South Korea were non-starters. Or so we thought. Divided at the end of War 2, as payment to the USSR for finally declaring war on Japan, their man in Korea was Kim and our man was Sygman Rhee. You might say an early Ho Chi Minh versus the Diem brothers.

In November, 1950, the US and the UN had turned the tide and reversed the early successes of the NK Army. The Chinese warned Gen. MacArthur not to approach too close to the Yalu River, its boundary with Korea. Not even a year had passed since the PLA had defeated the KMT. America was still smarting from that loss. The distance China wanted the US to keep is often given as 20 or 25 miles. In km, that would be 30 or 40 km respectively.

In any case, it is almost certain that MacArthur wanted a war with China. He sent out reconnaissance in force to provoke the Chinese. On that he succeeded. 500,000 Chinese Volunteers - a PRC euphemism to avoid open conflict - crossed the Yalu and inflicted heavy casualties on the ill prepared US and UN forces. Chosen Reservoir and etc. I was not there, but anyone who was will never forget that bitter winter of 1950-1951. Leaving all our heavy equipment behind, we barely escaped with our men and that due mainly to much heroism by the Navy. That's called a rout, not a retreat.

Where does this recounting of history lead me? To this. China did in fact exchange artillery rounds at its border with the USSR on several instances. But after the fall of the USSR in 1989-1991, that border dispute has been resolved. At its worst, neither country ever intended to go to war over the matter above battalion strength. Oriental brinkmanship? It is also true that for many years, the Chinese would shell Qumoy and Matsu islands, laying just off shore across from Taiwan. The US restrained the KMT from more than token shelling back. OTOH, we have kept the 7th Fleet in the Straits of Taiwan for 58 years. Actually, it is good duty for Navy-types. And you have to train the sailors somewhere, so why not do it where it pricks your main Pacific adversary just a bit?

China languished with internal quarrels of the highest order, until 1977. It was at a plenipotentiary Congress of the CCP - Chinese Communist Party - that the decision was taken to experiment in capitalism to solve the major problem they had been unable to solve. Employment. (Plenipotentiary means all powerful, that is, unrestricted by a constitution or by prior laws or precedents. The Congress is the supreme ruling entity of the PRC. It generally meets once every 3 years).

The PLA numbers more than 3 million men. It is plain however, that it is not an offensive armed force. It is primarily used to keep order inside China. It can dabble in Korea, or Taiwan, or Vietnam, but it is not a force that any other nation fears. China may or may not have cutting edge equipment. Like our XF35, they may have a half dozen, but that does not an Air Force make. If I could lay my hands on a current Janes I could see just what they do have. I don’t trust any other source. In the old days every public library kept a copy - not always current - of Janes All the World's Ships and All the World's Planes. But today’s librarians think Jane Russell when you ask if they have Janes. The more daring librarians ask if you mean Jane Mansfield. I heard the US Navy stocked one on every ship.

China has great internal problems. Most of the post 1977 boom has occurred along the Pacific coast, for obvious reasons. Most goods are for foreign consumption, although that has changed dramatically in the past 5-10 years. China admitted recently that in the past few years there have been 45,000 incidents in the interior that requited calling out the PLA and in at least 2, that shots were fired. Reminiscent of America’s own Pullman Strike, or the Lead, Colorado massacre. Or the West Virginia coal mines murders. And etc. At the bottom, it is the R&Fs who run both China and America. And they have a lot in common. Keeping the proletariat under the heel being one of those shared intentions.

Conclusion. The PRC wants Taiwan. The PRC made some concessions when it recovered Hong Kong and Macao. It’s not like living in Brooklyn, but there is a modicum of personal freedom in both places, provided you are smart enough to leave the government to Beijing. If you get confused where you are, the PLA will “explain” it to you. But for 3,000 years of Chinese history, China's people have never been so free!

China supplies 30% of NK’s food, 40% of its electricity and 90% of its oil. NK is not a puppet state - as Japan made Manchuria in 1930 - but it is a dependant state. As long as NK is agitating the US, it suits Beijing to let the two duke it out. The PRC does not want an American Special Operations Force in Pyongyang. I expect they have privately warned the US about that. Our major regional ally, Japan, does not want a blow-up between the US and the PRC. I expect the threat of such an undertaking by the US is what got the 6 Party talks back, although they have fallen silent in the past few days.

Continued in next post.

[edit on 4/10/2007 by donwhite]

Continued

China’s most serious problem is also internal. It is the Yuan. The US keeps asking the PRC to let the Yuan “float” [see note] which is to say, to be put at the hands of the money changers even Jesus got upset over. The world’s money market. Where buying and selling currencies exerts leverage on the whole nation which influence and power China is not prepared to give up. The PRC is unwilling to surrender control over its internal fiscal policies to foreigners who will meddle if not foment intrigues. Because the US has the preeminent position in the world’s currencies, we see it to our advantage to get as many currencies involved as possible. Especially important ones. We don’t give a dam where Mali or Chad bank, but we do care where China banks.

China is in a quandary. The more commercial intercourse China has with foreigners, the more difficult it is for them to insulate the Yuan. Even today the Chinese know they are heading for a “day of reckoning” but don’t know what to do to slow or stop it and are not sure what it will mean after all. Is China to be another Weimar Republic? Let’s hope not, because you can trace Adolph Hitler directly from that failed experiment in democracy brought low by ill advised fiscal policies and excessive war reprations.

China? No problem. Advice? Just don’t buy Chinese bonds.


Note: China’s Yuan and America’s dollar are currently exchanged at a fixed rate set by the Chinese. It is widely believed the Yuan is under priced. That is, that the Yuan is worth more than the PRC charges. This gives the PRC an advantage in world commerce, at the expense of its own citizens. It’s as if the Chinese people are subsidizing people who buy their products. If the Chinese let the Yuan float, then overnight, Chinese goods would cost more. Wal-Mart would not be lowering prices, it would be raising prices.

So tell me why America’s leaders want Wal-Mart to raise the price to you? Huh?

[edit on 4/10/2007 by donwhite]

well look at it this way, it increases the competitevness of U.S. industries and products. even though they wouldn't be near as cheap, they wouldn't be so expensive compared to chinese goods. plus the US doesn't want so much deficit towards china, higher prices means lower competitevness, lower competitivness means less importing from china, which means less deficit.

Originally posted by etotheitheta
Fair Tax has nothing to do with anything, it is a terrible idea.

Much like your post in response to the fairtax..
whats terrible about it?

Do you even know what the fairtax is? Its a proposal to replace the existing tax scheme in america by replacing the income tax with a consumption tax.

America cannot invent cheap labor like China has, why you figure Fair Tax will do this?

Yea..you dont know what your talking about. Its not 'inventing' cheap labor...

Essentially is what the fairtax does is making america more competitive then it already is out in the world market. It makes it more profitable to do business in the US then places like china. Now, this thread isnt about the fairtax, we have a separate thread here in the politics section that talks about the fairtax in greater depth. If you would like to go there and talk about it then be my guest. I would welcome such a debate. Now, Ive already explained in great detail back a few pages ago on this thread about what the fairtax is about. If you choose to be ignorant and ignore the facts that have already be presented to you then I cannot help you. Sooner or later the fairtax will become law regardless of what you say. I guess youll just have to find some way to cope with it..

That is politics, but business is business and by this I mean money. Call it what you will but british and french companies in the US are not subject to the same taxes as american companies. WHy do US and British oil companies pay $500 million environmental fines to Russia, Indonesia and other countries? Are we really that bad? Does BP run front page articles about its green energy plans only when quarterly statements are suspected of undesired numbers? You tell me!

In this world, no one is subject to a fair act, so why bring rubbish up about fair tax? Approximately how many dollars must be spent to provide this fair tax? $1 trillion? $2 trillion?

This ain't high school. We have bridges, power lines, ports, roads, houses, military, towers, waste facilities and what amounts to become the world's largest and most expensive infrastrucutre which all must be running smoothly to facilitate commerce.

WHy then, on god's green earth should we completely overhaul the levy and collection of taxes?

Originally posted by semperfoo
Much like your post in response to the fairtax..

whats terrible about it?

Well the reason it's so terrible is that there does not seem to be good grounds for believing that it will in fact REPLACE the old system and might in fact just run in ADDITION to it which is obviously not desirable.

Do you even know what the fairtax is? Its a proposal to replace the existing tax scheme in america by replacing the income tax with a consumption tax.

There is nothing 'fair' about taxation so calling it such is a appeal to the stupidest among the stupid. Once again people like Ron Paul have pointed out that there is no good reason to believe that it will in fact replace the old system and that taxing corporate America ( not something that is really happening at this moment) might in fact serve as solution to many problems.

Yea..you dont know what your talking about. Its not 'inventing' cheap labor...

He knows quite a bit more than you do Semper and does seem to understand that adding more taxes will do nothing but rob the American consumer while enabling congress to keep invading foreign countries.

Essentially is what the fairtax does is making america more competitive then it already is out in the world market.

America is not competitive on the world markets and only extremely low taxes and government subsidies enables it's current survival that is already largely dependent on cheap third world labour.

It makes it more profitable to do business in the US then places like china.

That can never happen while you can find the same skilled labour in China for a fraction of the price. Do not fool yourself into thinking that the American market place can truly compete against such states without serious trade barriers and protection measures. Globalisation is obviously the destruction of such barriers so things will only get worse for the workers of the world under the current plans of the powers that be.

Now, this thread isnt about the fairtax, we have a separate thread here in the politics section that talks about the fairtax in greater depth.

I have read a bit on that thread and i noticed the shallowness. If i had more time i would have stopped to point it out but knowing you and ape i know not to get involved without time on hand to suffer trough all the nonsense you will sling my way.

If you would like to go there and talk about it then be my guest. I would welcome such a debate.

Welcome debate? Show us some examples where you have proven that you are interested in debating and not just endlessly restating your position.

Now, Ive already explained in great detail back a few pages ago on this thread about what the fairtax is about.

You have not and what you did say is mostly misrepresentations or misunderstandings of the apparent true aims of that tax system. .

If you choose to be ignorant and ignore the facts that have already be presented to you then I cannot help you.

Nor i you.

Sooner or later the fairtax will become law regardless of what you say. I guess youll just have to find some way to cope with it..

If fair tax does happen you will be sorry that it did, assuming your old enough to pay taxes that is, but i do not see it happening soon or at all.

Stellar

Originally posted by k4rupt
The US has money?

HAH, you kiddin me right?

Newsflash: The U.S. is $9 Trillion in debt.

WE ARE BANKRUPT.

It hasn't hit us yet, but believe me, the cycle is in place... the dollar and the economy will soon collapse unless something is done about the deficit.


The world is losing it's confidence in the dollar.

$ 9,000,000,000,000 divided by 250,000,000 people = $ 36,000 per person.

Each of you owe me $36,000.

Every single baby you bear, he/she/it is in debt of $36,000.

And the problem is that 99.999% American didn't know about it but keep on talking big like sh**t everyday.
And the U.S government keep on taking world tours offering helps to 3rd world countries with bank INTEREST!

Debt is the reason why America must go on Wars from day to day, kill and kill to survive! Retracting people attentions, drawing American patriotism so they could pay more taxes and sacrifice more of their sons to go to wars. The U.S government is just making more debts and spending more taxes.

historically, American has been making wars all over the world for the last 50 years, American had robbed $zillions, but too bad they are still in big debt $9 trillion.

This strongly indicates that there is a huge MISMANAGEMENT by Jews gangs who strongly controlled all times U.S governments.

Change the U.S government immediately, but it is not easy, and why there are only 2 political parties in U.S in control? And they call it democracy?



China itself has problems and will face many problems, that is life! And so does Russia, and E.U, but at least they don't spark wars and killings.
And they don't talk bad about American, they didn't send out misinformations like tricky cheating American always do.


















[edit on 15-7-2007 by lanciau]

[edit on 15-7-2007 by lanciau]

Originally posted by lanciau

Originally posted by k4rupt
The US has money? HAH, you kiddin me right? Newsflash: The U.S. is $9 Trillion in debt. WE ARE BANKRUPT. It hasn't hit us yet, but believe me, the cycle is in place... the dollar and the economy will soon collapse unless something is done about the deficit. The world is losing it's confidence in the dollar.

$9 t? At 4.5% that will cost us just over $400 b. a year to “service.” Service is a term of art, meaning we do not pay down the principal, but just pay the accrued interest. Another term relating to large national debt is to “monetize” the debt. At an annual inflation rate of 3-4%, over a 25 year period, the debt is monetized, that is, its real value is cut in half. Today’s $12 t. GDP will become $25 t. by 2030. And "half" of $9 t. is de minimus when compared to a $25 t. economy.

The real problem is two fold.
1) Beginning in 2010 and the next 30 years, we face heavy borrowing to keep up the social security payments f of baby-boomers. By 2040 demographics will bail us out. That is, most of the baby boomers will have died and the number of workers per retiree will have risen to a equilibrium level pay-in to pay-out.
2) The servicing of the national debt falls heaviest on the lowest taxed people. That is, the poor. Whereas, the advantage of not paying as we go today gives a distinct advantage to the R&Fs, the rich and famous. That is not fair, socially speaking. We should be paying as we go today.

Foreigners losing confidence in the US dollar? Maybe, but what is the alternative currency? To answer my own question, there is no alternative currency in the world. Like the US or not, the world is stuck with the US dollar for the foreseeable future. We have about $425 b. in currency in circulation. About $250 b. circulates inside the US, about $175 b. circulates outside the US.

Did you know the first shipments of the new $100 bill were sent to Moscow? To counter the very detrimental effect counterfeit “C” notes were having on our currency. We thought either Iran or North Korea were making the bogus money. Example: You live in Iceland (Krona) and want to buy some fine coffee from Brazil (Real). Brazilians don’t want Krona in payment because they will have little commercial intercourse with Iceland. Iceland OTOH may have few to none of Brazilian Reals on hand anyway. So, the deal will be made in US dollars (USD) and payment will be required in USD. 1 Real is worth 32 Krona. Or, 1 Krona is worth 0.03 Real. BUT, the exchange rate is based on the US Dollar trading price! The WORLD’S currency.

China itself has problems and will face many problems, that is life! And so does Russia, and EU, but at least they don't spark wars and killings. And they don't talk bad about American, they didn't send out misinformations like tricky cheating American always do.

I agree that China faces almost insurmountable problems that will come to the fore over the next 2 decades. Air ground and water pollution may be their smallest problems. 1 billion people are greatly dissatisfied and pose a problem the PRC may not be able to solve. The 300 million Chinese living mainly in the east coastal region are participating in the prosperity brought on by globalization over the past years, begun in earnest in 1977.

The 1 billion people living inland have not been part of that prosperity. 90% of China’s government revenues go to the east coat. The people in the interior of China want a better spilt. It is touch and go if the PRC can stay 1 united country. The east coast may spilt off from the interior. OTOH the interior has the raw materials, the natural gas and oil the east coast must have. We may soon have another Iraq of a humongous scale on our hands. We may not have to wait long to see the END of this period I call the Wal-Mart era.

[edit on 7/15/2007 by donwhite]

Originally posted by donwhite


The 1 billion people living inland have not been part of that prosperity. 90% of China’s government revenues go to the east coat. The people in the interior of China want a better spilt. It is touch and go if the PRC can stay 1 united country. The east coast may spilt off from the interior. OTOH the interior has the raw materials, the natural gas and oil the east coast must have. We may soon have another Iraq of a humongous scale on our hands. We may not have to wait long to see the END of this period I call the Wal-Mart era.

It`s odd. I`m fairly well travelled, and I tend to get off the beaten path as much as I can. So I`ve seen places in America - forgettable rural towns in Virginia and Kentucky and Oklahoma- where the only word that springs to mind is "poverty". I`ve seen the same in Canada, in rural areas up and down the coast of Nova Scotia, where people still drop by the neighbour to use the phone because they can`t afford to have one installed at their place. Compared with Toronto or Montreal or NYC or Atlanta, the wealth difference is striking. We just don`t talk about it, or we call them hicks/rednecks/insert local term here.

In China, what I`ve seen in rural areas has been progress - staggering progress. No phones? Skip the landlines and bung in a few cell towers. Done. On my last trip to the Guilin region (startlingly beautiful, if you ever have the chance, get thyself there) I noticed an abundance of solar cells on farmhouses. The trip before, I noticed that the farmhouses were being rebuilt. There are new roads. Highways. Cars. Scooters and motorbikes by the thousand. Something is changing there, and the locals will tell you about it. In other words, the wealth is getting there. It`s taken some time, but it is happening. On my last trip, I went to a wedding reception at a hotel - and the only thing really setting it apart from a small town redneck wedding in Canada was that the noise level was about 20db higher for some reason.

My point is this: the urban/rural divide is obvious and unavoidable everywhere. In every country. How many words in the english language reflect this reality? The difference is that the PRC have long since noticed it and are doing something about it. Changes have come, and more are coming. You can`t spend a half a century putting up posters depicting peasants in mid-revolt with slogans like "Everyone is a soldier!" and then sweep them under the rug.

Originally posted by donwhite

The 1 billion people living inland have not been part of that prosperity. 90% of China’s government revenues go to the east coat. The people in the interior of China want a better split. It is touch and go if the PRC can stay 1 united country. The east coast may split off from the interior. OTOH the interior has the raw materials, the natural gas and oil the east coast must have. We may soon have another Iraq of a humongous scale on our hands. We may not have to wait long to see the END of this period I call the Wal-Mart era.

[edit on 7/15/2007 by donwhite]

Well about the split, it is true, but it is just our speculation and guess.

Nobody can turn China in a matter of a day or 10 years. It takes time.

The reason of China's govt revenues go to the east coast is because they are building harbour infrastructure to connect to the world. China won't be today if they started building from inside out.

1st thing to do is to get international trades and bring in U.S $, in order to do this China must build good infrastructure, sea port! And manufacturing sites must close to seaport.
Once the international trade is established and inland infractructure is settled, then the inner part of China will start developing, which is actually happening now.

posted by vox2442

posted by donwhite
The 1 billion people living inland have not been part of that prosperity. 90% of China’s government revenues go to the east coat. The people in the interior of China want a better spilt. It is touch and go if the PRC can stay 1 united country. The east coast may spilt off from the interior. OTOH the interior has the raw materials, the natural gas and oil the east coast must have. We may soon have another Iraq of a humongous scale on our hands. We may not have to wait long to see the END of this period I call the Wal-Mart era.

It`s odd. I`m fairly well traveled, and I tend to get off the beaten path as much as I can. So I`ve seen places in America - forgettable rural towns in Virginia and Kentucky and Oklahoma- where the only word that springs to mind is "poverty". I`ve seen the same in Canada, in rural areas up and down the coast of Nova Scotia, where people still drop by the neighbors to use the phone because they can`t afford to have one installed at their place. Compared with Toronto or Montreal or NYC or Atlanta, the wealth difference is striking. We just don`t talk about it, or we call them hicks/rednecks/insert local term here.

You have the great advantage over me, Mr Vox2442. You have been there and seen that. I can only claim one relative who visited China last summer, 2006, but she was part of a chaperoned tour that hit all the high spots. As far inland as she got was the de rigeur trip to the Great Wall. Her “escort” did not permit any on the tour to speak to a “non-arranged” Chinese. That’s understandable. The Chinese have probably found 50% of American tourists are CIA in all too transparent disguise. And the other 50% of Americans would be most happy to be debriefed by the CIA on returning home. Adding a bit of pizzaz to an otherwise colorless trip. Oh yes, she brought me a souvenir miniature clay (terracotta) soldier from the Emperor Qinshihuang tomb near Xi'an. (I can spell it but I cannot pronounce it).

Yes, there are wide variations in economic well-being in the US and Canada. But the US has 300 million people (Canada appx. 30 million) and occupies about the same space (lower 48) as China. So in America when you see one person, if you were in China you would see five. Or if in Canada, 50 people. As a good Jesuit might ask, "how many people can an elevator hold?" Any problem in the demographically driven disproportionate distribution of wealth is exacerbated in China as compared to here and I use the ratio of 5 to 1.

Inland China remains agricultural. Oxen are still more common than trucks or tractors. Stoop labor is the predominate form of gainful employment. I suppose the “ownership” of land remains as it was after Mao Zedong collectivized the land in the early 1950s by executing 500,000 land owners. More or less. If you owned more than one hectare, you were summarily executed. OTOH, I do not believe the Chinese people would accept such draconian tactics today.

Note: I am aware there are a few centers of globalized industry inland, particularly around the old Nationalist war-time capital, Chung-king. That name has been changed but at this moment, I do not know the new name.

In China, what I`ve seen in rural areas has been progress - staggering progress. No phones? Skip the landlines and bung in a few cell towers. Done. On my last trip to the Guilin region (startlingly beautiful, if you ever have the chance, get thyself there) I noticed an abundance of solar cells on farmhouses. The trip before, I noticed that the farmhouses were being rebuilt. There are new roads. Highways. Cars. Scooters and motorbikes by the thousand. Something is changing there, and the locals will tell you about it. In other words, the wealth is getting there. It`s taken some time, but it is happening. On my last trip, I went to a wedding reception at a hotel - and the only thing really setting it apart from a small town redneck wedding in Canada was that the noise level was about 20db higher for some reason.

My point is this: the urban/rural divide is obvious and unavoidable everywhere. In every country. How many words in the English language reflect this reality? The difference is that the PRC have long since noticed it and are doing something about it. Changes have come, and more are coming. You can`t spend a half a century putting up posters depicting peasants in mid-revolt with slogans like "Everyone is a soldier!" and then sweep them under the rug.

By my calculations Inland China covers about 2 million square miles. It has about 1 billion inhabitants. Beijing has lost control over the 300 million inhabitants of Coastal China. Shanghai rivals Beijing as the “leading” city of China. I read in 2006 that there were more construction cranes in Shanghai than any city on earth. Becoming a billionaire there - USD and not Yuan - no longer raises eyebrows.

It is obvious (to me) the governing Central Committee of the CCP has given up on the socialist theory. I understand this occurred or was confirmed in 1977's 6th Party Congress. That shift was a calculated last ditch effort to salvage the 1949 Revolution. It is not working as it was hoped it would. As they say about power, it seems also true that if money corrupts, then absolute money corrupts absolutely! Applicable in what I’m loosely calling the Coastal Region. As opposed to the rest of China which I call the Inland Region.

Shanghai’s penthouse ocean view cooperative apartments are selling for up to 7 million USD. As in Moscow in the 1990s, where movers and shakers preferred US dollars to Russian Rubles, so Shanghai’s up and comers in the 2000s flash US dollars in preference to the Yuan. Buying and selling is done in US dollars. There is real doubt whether the Shanghai and other coastal city elites will respond to the next call for a Peoples Congress in Beijing. And the old men running China don’t know what to do about it. Truly an example of the tail wagging the dog.

I repeat, I would not be surprised to see China divide, peacefully, into two countries between now and 2015. The glue that held the country together has failed and like Humpty Dumpty’s egg, it cannot be put back together again. IMO.

posted by lanciau
Well about the split, it is true, but it is just our speculation and guess. Nobody can turn China in a matter of a day or 10 years. It takes time. The reason of China's govt revenues go to the east coast is because they are building harbor infrastructure to connect to the world. China won't be today if they started building from inside out. 1st thing to do is to get international trades and bring in US $, in order to do this China must build good infrastructure, sea port! And manufacturing sites must close to seaport. Once the international trade is established and inland infrastructure is settled, then the inner part of China will start developing, which is actually happening now.

Very hopeful! Upbeat! But Chinese are like Americans. The Rich and Famous (R&Fs) do not want to pay taxes. It will take billions of dollars or Yuan over decades to bring the hinterland into anything closely resembling the Coastal China of today. “How do you keep them down on the farm after they have been to Paris” an old song asked.

In 1949, a Chinese living 25 miles away would not know for days what was happening with the other person. Today, as in India, every village if not every house, has a satellite tv and can see for themselves what is happening. The Chinese Communis Party no longer has a monopoly on information. That is the first line in their obituary. Although all our American businessmen have easily surrendered the RIGHTS of their Chinese customers in exchange for lucrative no-hassle access to the huge Chinese market - men of true grit - ? - this is another last ditch effort by the CCP to remain in power. China, like the Russian Federation, is about to be re-born! And for us a serendipitous bonus, Taiwan is on their back-burner for now.

[edit on 7/16/2007 by donwhite]