Major Alaskan oil field shutting down

get your wallets ready. go get that second job so you can drive to your first. the US's largest oil field, in alaska, is shutting half of the daily production down over the next few days, due to pipeline corrosion issues, which constitutes a 2.6% loss to the nations oil supply.



(Mod edit: Link removed. Let's try to keep discussion in this forum, not advertise others. See T&C #4. --Majic)



[edit on 8/8/2006 by Majic]

I hope you guys know the reason gas is high at the pump is because refineries can't make gasoline fast enough to keep up with demand. Supply can flux about 10% and we'd still have the same prices. The fact that they know you can use that as a profit for refineries is the reason they jack prices up sometimes. I know, my father works for BP and he has access to their intranet website containing all data about the oil economy globally.

Another reason prices are high is due to recent oil monopolies. In the USA, washington DC allowed larger oil compaines to buy out the small 70,000 barrel/day companies and shut them down. Due to this, the USA has a higher demand because supply is cut by shutting those places down.

Unfortuately the price of oil will go up noticebly. This is the biggest oil field at 8 percent of the US production. There is no time frame. BP will be looking for corrosion in the pipeline itself. If there is a major issue, it could be offline for quite a while.

source

A 400,000-barrel per day reduction in output would have a major impact on oil prices, said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo.

"Oil prices could increase by as much as $10 per barrel given the current environment," Emori said. "But we can't really say for sure how big an effect this is going to have until we have more exact figures about how much production is going to be reduced."

I really find the timing of this suspect and disturbing. It couldn't come at a worse time.

I can't help but feel there might be something more to it.

You know Relentless... that was my initial reaction as well. Certainly pipelines are suddnely discovered to be 'heavily corroded'. They inspect these lines continually and would have seen this coming for quite some time one would think.

What I notice is the price always gos up and never back down. After Katrina the prices went up because of the damage. A large portion of that damage has to be fixed by now. But the prices still remain high. The prices will go up for the pipelline repair, but it will never come back down.

First thing we said around here was that they had a case of Semtex corrosion. Anyone seen any pictures? When it takes a while, that bothers me.

Originally posted by steve99
What I notice is the price always gos up and never back down. After Katrina the prices went up because of the damage. A large portion of that damage has to be fixed by now. But the prices still remain high. The prices will go up for the pipelline repair, but it will never come back down.

You know, that made me start searching to see exactly how much has been fixed since that "recent unpleasantness." Seems to me that all of the major refineries are back up and running and platforms for the most part are up and running. Katrina however made hardly a dent in the oil platforms in the gulf compared to Hurricane Rita (Cat. 5) which impacted an area with a more densely positioned area of rigs. I still see nothing really to show that most aren't up and running.

There is that new bill for offshore drilling that has gone through, which at least to maintain supply will be important, as there are about 1500 rigs that are from the 1980's that can no longer be used and are going to be converted into reef areas.

What's really sad is that so much of the oil comes right out from under my area, and I still paid $3.23/gal yesterday at the pump.

How convenient for the oil companies, this should really make their projections for pricing in the next quarter much worse. Worse for us that is, $$$ for them.

Increase by $10? Nice. Here in Alberta we like it when oil prices increase since we make huge amounts of money from it. This will continue to inflate our already white hot economy. But thats going to hurt at the pump!!! (like $2/L gas)

I'm with the 2 who said they thought there was more to it than the news says. I don't trust my government to give us the truth any more. But this closure sure comes at a mighty suspicious time what with the ME conflict, etc.

there is always smething else going on.... here's an interesting article in TIME concerning BP and its problem with corrosion in its pipes...seems that this has been going on for a while
this says that in canada, 57 percent of leaks are due to corrosion...here is another article with examples of some spills..............

i wonder why the pipeline wasn't 'closed' for some of these other spills??

come on everybody,..lets play 'how much will you pay for gas'..!!! oh?! you don't want to play...tough......

which brings up a good point...is there a line in the sand for how much you pay for gas??

Originally posted by clearmind
which brings up a good point...is there a line in the sand for how much you pay for gas??

Oil speculators Goldman Sachs believes it's higher than $4/gal.

``Perhaps the ultimate answer to high how oil prices need to go before demand destruction occurs is derived from knowing when American consumers will stop buying gas guzzling sport utility vehicles and instead seek fuel efficient alternatives.

``Based on our analysis of gasoline spending and the economy noted above, we estimate that U.S. gasoline prices may need to exceed $4 per gallon.''

www.energybulletin.net...

There's more than fashion that's 1970's, as GS points out. For those of you too young to remember those oil spikes, there were the famous gas lines and no gas, and inflation roared. Reagan was elected to stop inflation, and it was accomplished through unemployment to cool off the economy.

You will always be made to pay a % of your "disposable income" for gas, even if that % represents a hardship for you personally. Think you're gonna keep that tax break or raise--no way, as your life is guided by these commodities as oil, and you'll still be at square one economically as your rising % goes to pay for oil. (And this article is about gas, not home heating oil.)

The bank also said its super-spike forecast range was conservative, noting declining U.S. gasoline spending as a proportion of GDP and consumer spending.

During 1980-1981, gasoline spending in the United States corresponded to an average 4.5 percent of GDP, 7.2 percent of consumer expenditures, and 6.2 percent of personal disposable income, Goldman said.

``Our new $50-$105 per bbl super spike range perhaps conservatively corresponds to gasoline spending in the United States that reaches 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income.

With Americans so much in debt personally (house, car, credit card, loans, etc.) how much is left over for rising fuel costs? Just keep taking out more refinancing, longer car loans, pay day loans, credit card spending, interest only home mortgages, etc.

Sorry to sound so cynical/depressing, but reality bites and sometimes bites bigtime.

I don't believe any of the parties on this - oil companies, government, or media - either.

The timing is suspect, the reason - corrosion? - is suspect, the effect on oil and gas supplies on the lower 48 states - since most if not all of Alaskan oil is exported - is suspect.

This could be the real conspiracy everyone has been looking for ...

If you want to put the brakes on the up and down of oil prices, the govt should put a moratorium on oil futures. Its the speculation that drives prices. The price has risen in the past several weeks for no real reason. The supply has not been altered at all.

Do you hear me Washington? Stop the speculation!

You're right, hogtie, that speculation adds to the price of a barrel of oil. It even puzzles our oil suppliers, as what they sell it for may only be $35.

As far as Washington stopping the speculation, probably not for the near future, as guess who is our Treasury Secretary--Goldman Sachs CEO Henry Paulson! And the President's Chief of Staff, Joshua Bolten, had worked for GS, also. I'm trying to figure out if there has been a corporation coup or a revolution in Washington.

Originally posted by desert
As far as Washington stopping the speculation, probably not for the near future, as guess who is our Treasury Secretary--Goldman Sachs CEO Henry Paulson! And the President's Chief of Staff, Joshua Bolten, had worked for GS, also. I'm trying to figure out if there has been a corporation coup or a revolution in Washington.

This is where the conspiracy lies, I believe. There may be mechinations to control the global something-or-other, but the simplest reason I can see for the pipeline shut down, is to make money on the market. Any kind of scare will do, and like you mentioned G/S, I bet they made a crapload of money before noon today. Of course, you're right about it not changing as well. I personally don't hold any oil futures (I can't even control my own), but I'm sure there are a lot in DC that do. Need a little extra green for the upcoming elections?

[edit on 8/7/2006 by hogtie]

BP says it is going to have to replace 73% of its pipeline in Alaska. This could
take weeks, months maybe years to complete. I don't see how they could have
not found out about this earlier, obviously a major failure in the type
of pipe they used. Anyone know the estimated use time for the type of
pipe they used?

Originally posted by hogtie
Need a little extra green for the upcoming elections?
[edit on 8/7/2006 by hogtie]

Now you're scaring me, hogtie!

What they do in Washington is worse than insider trading. They can make all the rules of the game, involving specific corporations by making it look like a bill for something else.
Sure, I invest 2% of my income and earn a little; I'ld rather invest 2% of THEIR income, the return being so much more.

On topic now, no wonder BP has such nice sounding ads on tv to win loyalty. BP is NOT yet Beyond Petroleum
But, really, how much will this hurt BP, if they plan on being one of the big players of the natural gas (LNG) pipeline thru Alaska, along the same route as the oil pipeline? Will this corroded pipe incident drive up oil prices more to make LNG even more profitable? From what I've read, the natural gas reserve at Prudhoe Bay is starting to dwarf the oil reserve.

I think the US government has conspired with BP (and possibly other companies) to play this little game as a deterrent to Iran, Venezuela, and other world oil stakeholders. I may be wrong, but here's how I think it will play out:

1) Prudhoe Bay goes offline for "maintenance"
2) SPR is tapped to cushion the impact
3) prices rise somewhat, but oil/gas is still available and consumers keep paying
4) a few months go by and people learn to adjust to the temporary hardship
5) demand subsides
6) the pipeline is "fixed", summer driving season is over, and prices decline
7) consumers are happy and soon forget all about it

Guess who doesn't forget about it? The US will have established to the world that it can weather such a decline in supply with little adverse effect. Apparently Rita/Katrina didn't make the point strongly enough to all those who threaten to use oil as a weapon. The US doesn't really NEED their oil anyway.

And where do you think all that Alaskan oil is going to in the meanwhile? Whose willing to bet the US has other (undisclosed) reserves that are quietly being filled?

Sound crazy? About as crazy as starting another front in the Middle East war in a few months.

Just my 2 cents.....

I love it I love it I love it !

BP PLC said it will have to replace most of the 22 miles of so-called transit pipeline at Prudhoe Bay, which produces about 2.6 percent of the nation's daily supply including imports, or about 400,000 barrels a day.

...

The news sent the price of light, sweet crude oil up 2.22, or 3 percent, to settle at $76.98 a barrel Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after peaking at $77.30 earlier in the day

news.yahoo.com...


2.6 percent of the nations daily supply going offline ends up rasing the price 3 percent.

Oh but thats not a problem because:

Thus, we would not be surprised to see volume losses in the area of 5 percent to 10 percent.

Up up and away !