No such thing as peak oil

Originally posted by StellarX

As a direct result of the sun energy intelligence had a chance to develop on this planet and in due course we might mine the solar system ensuring that this planet no longer has finite resources.

is this not an admition that the Earth's resources and systems are finite?

To be more specific i do not believe that oil can be overexploited ( like we do when we catch fish faster than they can breed) because i find the abiotic theory of oil's origin to best explain where we find oil and why decline curves are relatively meaningless.

Now I will have to look up the specifics but on its face value I find this statement to be slightly dubious. Not to condemn your point as I may just be uninformed. But the idea that non-living systems or elements of the planet can produce oil infinitely seems hard to swallow. But to be fair I will look up the theory and give it a whirl.

[edit on 9-12-2007 by Animal]

Originally posted by Animal
Originally posted by StellarX
is this not an admition that the Earth's resources and systems are finite?

Always finite at any given time but given that the Earth is a open system with a massive energy 'source' nearby it negates the finite nature of most of those resources. Before we could mine many miles deep and extract oil energy and those resources were far more 'finite' than they are now and with continued knowledge and the application of scientific knowledge now in evidence it might soon become widely known that resources are relatively interchangable by fusion processes; resources are in my opinion only finite in the most abstract of senses.

Now I will have to look up the specifics but on its face value I find this statement to be slightly dubious. Not to condemn your point as I may just be uninformed. But the idea that non-living systems or elements of the planet can produce oil infinitely seems hard to swallow. But to be fair I will look up the theory and give it a whirl.

If you only find it 'slightly dubious' you are far more open minded than most of those who respond to my post. I know it's hard to believe that something so 'valuable' can be so common but i am confident that i can prove that the US foreign policy of the last few decades were persistently employed to restrict global access to oil. The wars were certainly in large part over oil but not to bring it to the market!

Either way i can answer more specific questions if your really interested and are well able to defend the views i currently hold!

Good luck with the studying/reading.

Stellar

Originally posted by PopeyeFAFL
Face it, Peak Oil will soon be a reality.

The only reality is that access to huge oil fields and current production is restricted.

gasresources.net...

Peak oil, huh? I saw a Discovery Channel show several years back where they were interviewing an engineer on a new Oil Well platform being built in the North Sea. I believe it was for BP.

They asked the engineer about oil supplies and he said "We are discovering new oil faster than we can pump it out of the ground".

Just FYI....

Originally posted by sir_chancealot
Peak oil, huh? I saw a Discovery Channel show several years back where they were interviewing an engineer on a new Oil Well platform being built in the North Sea. I believe it was for BP.

They asked the engineer about oil supplies and he said "We are discovering new oil faster than we can pump it out of the ground".

Just FYI....

Totally false

"We now find one barrel for every four we consume." Colin J.Campbell

And we pump them out as fast as we could.

We are definitively not finding oil faster then we pump it.

Anyway, if PeakOil is unreal, the current oil price those days and the volatility of the market seem to go along that theory, not the other way around.

Originally posted by PopeyeFAFL

Totally false

"We now find one barrel for every four we consume." Colin J.Campbell

So why do you believe Colin Campbell instead of the BP people? What will increase oil prices faster than claiming that it's fast running out? Why would it make sense for BP to consistently claim that there is still plenty of oil left when governments consistently refuse to invest in alternatives? What do they have to lose by saying that oil discovery is declining when such large reserves still remain?

nd we pump them out as fast as we could.

No we are not and no one who knows anything about economics argues this point. It just does not pay to floor the market leading to crash in pricing as was experienced back in 1998 when spot prices were running at 8 USD a barrel with long term contracts being settled for FAR less.

We are definitively not finding oil faster then we pump it.

World reserves are in fact increasing according as new finds are being made and rising prices allows for the exploitation of harder to extract oil. When the price went past 60 USD a barrel even North Sea oil becomes very profitable!

The new data estimate total world oil reserves at 1.15 t barrel, about 10 % higher than previously reported for 2002. Additionally, global oil reserves have increased almost continuously over the past 30 years, BP officials said. World reserves now represent 41 years of production at current rates.
By comparison, in 1980 reserves equivalent to only 29 years of production were known. The world has now produced some 80 % of the oil reserves that were known in 1980; yet exploration success and application of technology has led to current reserves that are 70 % higher, BP said. The company has published its statistical review of world energy for 53 years.

Looking at natural gas, BP reported global reserves of 176 tcm, 13 % higher than those previously reported for 2002. The company said that gas reserves have more than doubled since 1980 as a result of exploration, new technology, and the "unstranding" of gas reserves through LNG and other technologies.BP Group CEO John Browne emphasized that oil and gas are not being depleted at an accelerated rate.
"The data [illustrate] the continued growth in reserve volumes across the world," Browne wrote in the review's introduction. "At current levels of consumption, there are sufficient reserves to meet oil demand for some 40 years and to meet natural gas demand for well over 60 years."

He added that there appears to be considerable scope for proved reserves and production to keep rising in Russia and elsewhere.
"Reserves, globally, have grown over time, and it is clear that the issue of energy security, which has been so prominent over the last year, is driven not by a physical shortage of supply but by the challenges of ensuring, in a world where demand and supply are not collocated, that there will be sufficient traded oil and gas to meet rising demand."

www.gasandoil.com...

I would particularly like to you to focus your attention on the bolded parts.

How it can it be argued that we are not finding oil fast when we have used up so much of what we used to consider 'world reserves' not long ago? Isn't it much like arguing that whatever is currently in your fridge, ready for quick consumption, is all there is while ignoring the supermarket down the road? Isn't supply more about what your willing to be pay instead of some finite supply number?

Anyway, if PeakOil is unreal, the current oil price those days and the volatility of the market seem to go along that theory, not the other way around.

What does oil prices have to do with oil availability in the ground? Why does prices keep rising despite oil contracts being met? Why should there be a massive oversupply of oil on the market when there is no market for it despite the high cost of maintaining the excess capacity as while as the likely effect on prices? Why would anyone offer more than the market wants at current price regimes?


Please show me which corporations/agencies/countries could not get the oil they wanted at current prices? Why do so many presume to insist that rising prices fundamentally means that there is too little oil on the world markets? Wouldn't that require these markets to be free and fair?

Stellar

Originally posted by PopeyeFAFL

Originally posted by sir_chancealot
Peak oil, huh? I saw a Discovery Channel show several years back where they were interviewing an engineer on a new Oil Well platform being built in the North Sea. I believe it was for BP.

They asked the engineer about oil supplies and he said "We are discovering new oil faster than we can pump it out of the ground".

Just FYI....

Totally false

"We now find one barrel for every four we consume." Colin J.Campbell

And we pump them out as fast as we could.

We are definitively not finding oil faster then we pump it.

Anyway, if PeakOil is unreal, the current oil price those days and the volatility of the market seem to go along that theory, not the other way around.

No, *NOT* totally false. You can say 1 of 3 things about what I posted. 1) That I am lying, 2) That the scientist was incorrect or lying, or 3) I misheard/was mistaken about what he said.

Does anyone remember in the very early 90s, how low gas prices were? Saddam Hussein, in order to fund his war with Iran, was undercutting everyone in the oil business. Oil executives realized that they were not making very much money, but there wasn't much they could do about it. They got together, and said "how can we prevent someone else from dumping oil like this guy?". Their solution was to buy up independent refineries. That way, even though they couldn't control the price of crude oil, they COULD control what was refined.

Do you think it is a coincidence that hardly any refineries have been built? "Oh, that's because of the environmental wackos!" Oh, really? Funny that large corps can build factories overseas to make products in ways that wouldn't be allowed in America (i.e., pollution/contaminant wise), yet they aren't willing to build a refinery overseas?

15 years ago, oil produced from shale was said to be "economically feasible" when oil hit something like $30 or $50 a barrel. Here it is, twice that amount, yet no oil from shale being produced. Now, why is that?

Oil companies should be regulated, JUST LIKE ELECTRICAL AND PHONE COMPANIES WERE YEARS AGO.