Is Iraq At A Crossroad? As In Now? May, 2006?

There are at least five (5) players in Iraq today. The Kurds, the Shia, the Sunni, the Iranians and the United States. The US had a rosy “plan” to depose Saddam, and impose a ruler of our choosing, to station our Armed Forces in Iraq, and to become a major player in the Persian Gulf oil resources game. Russia and the EU are in the background.

The Gang of Four - Geo W, VP Cheney, Condo Rice and the Oberfuhrer - overruled all advice from the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency. Geo W confirmed to the world his lack of understanding Iraq on May 1, 2003, on the USS Abraham Lincoln. Our Maximum Leader misjudged the facts on the ground and misstated our situation in Iraq. He boasted to the world, “Mission Accomplished.” Geo W surely believed it was true, even if it proved later not to be.

Unlike his father whose offhand statement, “read my lips” did him in, Geo W survived his 2004 reelection bid because he was not facing the most formidable presidential politician since Ronald Reagan in Bill Clinton. Had that been the case, Geo W would have joined his father as a one term president of less than mediocre ability and short of lasting accomplishments. But alas, fate was not so kind to America. I am reminded of Solomon’s Proverbs 29:18.” Where there is no vision, the people perish.”

After the Pearl-Wolfowitz-Rumsfeld takeover of the Pentagon, America does not have the military capacity to do on the ground what we have proved unable to do at the table, either impose our will or “buy” collaboration from the Iraqis. It is election time here again. November 7. 6 months away. The GOP holds 231 seats in the house. The Dems have 201. A net gain of 17 seats puts the Dems back in control of the House. Many GOP House members are worried. Iraq has gone sour, Katerina is worse, the price of gasoline could spell doom, and Jack Abramoff is everywhere.

Iraq. The Sunni have 3 problems. 1) They ruled Iraq for 30 years and were not very generous in the process. There are many resentments being played out today in Baghdad’s streets. 2) The area they are dominant in has no oil. 3) The Sunni’s are divided into at least 2 groups, one which is supporting the insurgency and the other which wants to have a go at trying to participate in governing a new Iraq.

The Shia have 3 or even 4 problems. 1) They are the majority of Iraqis, but have both a secular side and a sectarian side. The Sectarian side subdivides into at least 2 sides. 2) One is very much pro Iran, and 3) the second prefers to stay aloof from Tehran. 4) Many Shia want to retain powerful militias until they are satisfied the new Iraqi government will protect their interests.

The Kurds are united. They have only 1 problem. They want an independent homeland for Kurds from Turkey, from Iran, and from Syria. But they cannot have it. Turkey will not allow this. Period. Iran does not want it but would not stop it if it came to pass. Syria does not want it.

The US no longer needs the Kurds. Best outcome? The Kurds will get a semi-autonomous province with a lot of oil but not all the oil in those fields. The Sunni will probably get some of the Northern oil and maybe a small part of the Southeast fields now under Shia control.

Iran. Everywhere the Shia sect of Muslims look to Tehran for spiritual leadership. The Shia are the more fervent and the Sunni the more tolerant. Excluding the Wahhabi sect of the Sunni founded in the late 18th century in what is now Saudi Arabia which is very much a puritan in religious practices.

Iran wants a Shia controlled client state in Iraq. If the Iranians can accomplish this, they will be #2 in oil reserves under one dominating theocracy in Tehran. Further, it will put Iran in a position to threaten Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the other Arab emirates along the Gulf coast. The power of oil would put Iran into a position as a world player. In the background, the Shia would very much enjoy a suzerainty over the Holy Sites at Mecca and Medina. Of course, the United States does not want to see Iran in such a cat-bird seat.

This contest between Iran and the US for control of Iraq is the raison d’etre behind the on-going brouhaha over enriched uranium. The US is not really worried over ‘EU’ as much as the Israelis but it is the WMDs of Iran the Bush Regime has chosen to go with, rather than tell the American public the truth. Why is that? Can Bush just not bring himself to tell the truth? We’ll see how the public reacts on November 7.

[edit on 5/3/2006 by donwhite]