The Great quake,

Today is the anniversary of the Great 1906 San Francisco. New research shows that there could in the next 2 decades be another one of a mag6 or above,




New research shows that another quake with a mag of 6 or more could hit in the next 2 decades.

At almost precisely 5:12 a.m., local time, a foreshock occurred with sufficient force to be felt widely throughout the San Francisco Bay area. The great earthquake broke loose some 20 to 25 seconds later, with an epicenter near San Francisco.

Allot of questions have been brought up due to this like "are you ready"

How far have we come?

Maybe we could look in to this today and talk about what plans could be put in to place,

Maybe you live in the area, or maybe in another Quake area, how do you prepare for something like this?

I’m also sure that we may have some people here who’s family’s lived through this Maybe you have a story?

quake.wr.usgs.gov...
www.1906eqconf.org...

An interesting link below, that shows a simulation of the 1906 quake,

To better understand the distribution of shaking and damage that accompanied the great 1906 earthquake, seismologists have constructed new computer models to recreate the ground motions

1906 Ground Motion Simulations




[edit on 18-4-2006 by asala]

That simulation is amazing asala!

The distructive force of that in under a minute and the area that it covered is just mind blowing.

I hope we are more prepaired for something like this if it was to happen again as prodicted.

Really enjoyed the Coputer generated effect's of the great quake. Very self explanitory. It is quite a catastrophe none the less. As far as being prepared? How do you plan on something so spuratic?
Thanks again for the thread!!

How do you plan on something so spuratic?

I guess some of the ways would to be more prepared for the after affects and knowing that you may not get seen to right away, So having maybe your own stack of foods and medical things could be a start,.

Also power could be down for a few days so possible making sure you have blankets ect,

possibley storing things in a more outside location like a garden shed that may be easyer to get to if you had to dig through rubble ect.

Whoa...that was intense I like the computer generated model....really puts things into perspective and shows the awesome power of an earthquake.

Anyone here from the bay area?



[edit on 18/4/2006 by SportyMB]

Awesome simulation

Here's a 24 hour forecast

24 Hour Aftershock Hazard Forecast

Greetings!

I've been browsing the local news station here in the San Francisco Bay area, and would like to share these links:
1906 Earthquake - Hour by Hour

1906 Earthquake Centennial

More footage can be found at: kron4.com

God Bless

[quoteAs far as being prepared? How do you plan on something so spuratic?

You plan by being prepared. And then, knowing you live in EQ country, you forget about it until it happens. I've slept through more 4 pointers than most people will ever experience. LOL. While I missed the '06 quake, I've experienced several 6+'s in my life, several very close to the epicenter ('72 and '94)

Here's what I've learned...

1. Be prepared to live completely ON YOUR OWN for at least 72 hours, if not a full week. Don't forget your furry friends' needs, and if you have elderly neighbors, make sure they're covered, as well.
2. Have a wrench handy and know how to turn off your house gas line. Most of the structures lost post quake are due to fires. Know how to protect yourself from that possibility.
3. Have a "GOOD" bag in both your car and in a safe place in your home. A GOOD bag is a "get out of Dodge" bag, and should contain essentials for your survival (clean clothes, blankets, food, water, water purifier perhaps, flashlights and batteries, local area maps, and medical kit). Don't put the kit in your trunk - if your car is smashed, it will be easier generally to retrieve your GOOD bag from the passenger section as that is generally more reinforced than the trunk. In the home, have it stored somewhere you're pretty sure will survive a good shake - a closet, under a strong table, et cetera.
4. Be very aware of broken items, such as glass and china, and don't walk around barefoot (my fridge kamikazied into the sink, shattering both sink and fridge...and spewing glass and pottery all over kingdom come...shoes were very welcome).
5. Have a battery operated radio. Know the emergency station for your area, and tune in to that immediately. If there is a major issue (dam break, huge fire), it will be broadcast, and you will be given directions on what to do.
6. Have an emergency plan to call someone out of state; make sure your family has the ICE number (In Case of Emergency) and know that you will be checking in there. Realize that many people will be trying to use the phone, and the lines will get tied up. If you have to leave your place, put an out going message on your machine to let people know you're all right, and will be calling.
7. Be very aware of aftershocks. They can be as strong - and in rare cases stonger - than the initial shock. And often, additional structural damage will occur after the initial shock, and a series of solid aftershocks will bring down a structure.
8. If you are sitting when the quake strikes, don't move unless the quake actually moves you or if you're in the path of objects falling (i.e. bookcases, mirrors, et cetera. In 94, I was thrown out of bed - I woke in midair. That's what I mean by "moving you"...)*. If it does, get into an interior doorway (that doesn't have a door attached to it!!!) such as a hallway entrance, or get under a strong, sturdy table (such as a dining table). Wait until the shaking stops, and then give it a few more seconds. Aftershocks often occur within moments of the original quake, and can do equal amounts of damage. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE unless necessary. Even though that's our instinct, things tend to fall and we don't always look up; power lines, second story windows, chimneys all can kill you but can't if you're not within their reach. If you are already outside walking, get into an entrance of a structure. Stay put. If you are driving, try to get to the side of the road when it's clear, and be very cautious of stopping under an overpass, mountain road, or while on a bridge. STAY IN YOUR CAR.

There are many different kinds of earthquakes; the '06 and '72 were slip thrust faults, which means the movement was side to side. Hold your hands together, and thumbs next to each other, and slide one forward and the other one backward. This is a representation of what a slip fault will do. It's movements are waves, side to side, undulating. It will feel like a rolling motion (unless you're right at the epicenter) similar to a boat on rough seas. These are not nearly as destructive as a thrust fault.

A thrust fault is what happened in '94. Take your hands, place them palm to palm, and then move one up and the other down. The resultant action is a bouncing, far more like a rubber ball being dribbled or tossed than a wave. These are inherently more destructive because the motion displaces up/down rather than side to side, and the compression will weaken things much faster than waving. Thankfully, the San Andreas is a slip fault rather than a thrust fault...but the danger is still there, no matter what sort of quake it is.

In no way is this intended to do anything other than give my opinion and experience, but I hope it helps some folks be a bit more prepared. It is going to happen, and if you are aware, prepared, and know a little bit about what's happening, you should survive it without too much problem.

Best regards-
Aimless

*Obviously, if the building is coming down, get out.

Wow Some great links there, It really is fasinating,

Aimless Searcher- Thanks for all the info there, Being here in london i have never myself experienced a quake, and dont wish to either, A very Deadly force but at least having some idea and knowledge is a good thing,


So are house's there built in them areas better to to with-stand quakes?

Hi, Asala

Well, yes and no. Yes in modern (post 1970) construction, no for those earlier. One of the issues in the '06 quake is that because of the widespread distruction and not having the technologies we have now, most building codes were "suspended" because of the need for new housing post quake. However, there has been massive retrofitting happening across the state to reinforce bridges, spans, and various different "important" buildings.

To reinforce a personal dwelling, it becomes very expensive and most people don't do that. Then again, the risk of a quake taking down a single story building, or even a two story building, is far less than one taking down a larger, masonry based building. Bricks don't give too much...whereas lath and plaster can, and do.

OTOH, I'd rather be in my father's 70 year old house during a shake, or even my own 100 year old house, than a modern building...why? Because it's withstood some serious stuff already, and there's no reason to believe that it will crumble this time; whereas a modern structure has not necessarily been through "the fire" if you will. But that's personal preference.

Again, it's only the 5+ which get my attention, living here as I have all my life. Those are the ones which you can feel and *know* it's a quake rather than guessing it's an overlarge truck...and the noise which accompanies them is rather telling, too. So when the house lurches, but I don't hear anything, I usually simply think it's a truck passing. Mostly, I'm right.

Be aware that even in London (anywhere, in fact), you can have a good earthquake. IIRC, New York had a 4, and it basically shut down the city...then again, when we get snow here in So. California, it shuts down our city, and we don't even blink at a 4 pointer earthquake. It's all what you're used to, I guess. We had a tornado watch a few weeks ago here, and the news was stepping all over themselves trying to get us the proper information in case it occurred. It didn't, but it was funny trying to get information since it's exceedingly rare for us to have a tornado in my area.

BTW, the ideas and such I mentioned above can work for any emergency, not just earthquakes. The key is to be prepared for whatever your region deems it's most likely catastrophic event, and know what to do.

The old saying "expect the unexpected" and then just live your life normally is key.

Best regards-
Aimless

Again thanks for the info, it is something I myself will take notice of, and like you say its best to be prepared for anything that may happen,

Was looking through a few articles today and came across another story saying that San Francisco is not ready for another Quake,

The general opinion of experts meeting in San Francisco is that future quakes could easily do more damage than any past ones because the California population continues to grow and there are more buildings near fault lines, the Los Angeles Times said. They say further that the state must do more to retrofit vulnerable buildings.

Link,

This is a scary picture they are painting, Surly there should be some Group made to look in to this more, or at least ways to protect the people to there best ability,

I wonder if all who live there are fully aware.


I agree getting the info out there can be what’s needed and even if people just have a brief read then they may know more than they did before,

I also wonder what other Quake areas are better equipped and if anything could be learned from them,

Is there a specific earth Quake team in Cali?

Hi again.

I also wonder what other Quake areas are better equipped and if anything could be learned from them,

There is one area which i *know* is better prepared, and that is Japan. They've lived there for thousands of years, and many quakes have happened during that time, some large, most moderate or small.

They innovated the "shock absorber" technologies which allow structures to absorb the motions of a quake; they've also developed intense tsunami warnings and some entire cities have walls around them which can be closed within minutes should a warning come. These walls would have survived the tsunami of '04 without problems.

Another thing that Japan has done is been the creators of different sorts of building techniques and materials, from what I understand, which allow a structure to withstand a good sized shake by themselves.

Of course, there is no fail-proof design or structure, as Kobe showed us. Again, however, the fire post-quake is what tends to be the most destructive.

Is there a specific earth Quake team in Cali?

No. There is CalTrans, which is the state's transportation authority, and they are tasked with retrofitting bridges, freeways, elevated roads, and new construction up to current earthquake standards. But because of mismanagement by the former governor, the work is lagging far behind the projected date, which of course puts us at risk.

There is no government oversight for the private holdings, including dwelllings, with the following exceptions.

1. Los Angeles enacted a "seimic retrofit law" which requires that any home sold in Los Angeles city (not county, but city) have what's called a "seismic shut-off valve." This attaches to the gas line as it enters the house, and has a ball situated in it so that in an event of a 5+ earthquake, the ball will drop and cap the gas line. The cost is negligible, about $300 or so, and is generally absorbed into the cost of selling the house and paid through escrow. As a matter of fact, if the city hasn't approved the seismic valve installation, escrow cannot close. They estimate that in the next 30 years, all homes will have this in place (assuming that the housing market continues).

While this is a very good idea, where it falls short is in condominiums/townhomes/apartments. If one person buys a condo, and has the valve installed, and their neighbor does not have one installed because they bought the home *prior* to the law being enacted (IIRC, it was in 2001), the risk of fire is still there. If your neighbor's home burns, it's rather likely to catch your home as well, as the walls are shared. So it sort of doesn't work for those homes, you know?

2. The second is a state wide law which requires that all glass in the bathroom is "safety glass" (I don't know when it was enacted). While this is not necessarily solely because of earthquakes (lots of slip-and-falls happen in the tub), it is also because at least three people were badly hurt (one fatal) in the '72 quake because of going through the shower door. Me? I have a curtain...lol.

Again, keep in mind that unless it is a significant earthquake which lasts a long while, or there is a series of aftershocks nearly as strong (or stronger than) the original shake, most private dwellings will survive as long as the fire threat is minimized.

To that end, whenever there is an earthquake of over 4, the state has a law that all emergency vehicles (i.e. ambulances, firetrucks, haz-mat, and so on; excluding those inoperable and garaged police cars) are moved outside their garages for (I believe) 24 hours. Inspections are undertaken so as to make sure that the structures are stable, in good working order, and that the doors open. This is because during the '72 quake some fire engines were stuck inside failed structures, and were not able to respond to emergencies in their area.

An interesting exercise is to watch a firehouse just after a smallish (4+) earthquake. They all move out into the street, and the firemen go through and measure, visually as well as with lasers (in my area, at least) to make sure that the walls are still straight. Once the inspection is complete, they all sort of stand around and look at each other...

And a last note for now: all the fault lines have NOT been mapped. The San Andreas is really well understood, as it's been active and you can see the displacement readily. However, the 94 quake took place on a previously unknown faultline. There are many more fault lines capable of great destruction which have not even been identified, and so some people who believe they are "safe" are operating under an illusion...they are the ones who need to realize the danger is real, is there, and can kill them if they are not prepared.

I guess it all comes down to knowing what sort of building you're in, and what the emergency preparation for the neighborhood is, and how to be effective when an eq strikes (and not become a problem). It's amazing how a little bit of preparation can prevent many, many problems and potentially deaths.

Best regards-
Aimless