Iran, whats' going to happen??

I'd like to hear some thoughts of other ATS members on what they think will happen next regarding Iran....

I personally cannot see Bush and Co taking us into another war on the same scale as Iraq anytime soon , I believe the general public has learned a few things about the lies told by various politicians and are less likely to believe any intel from the govt trying to mount a case for war...

However I do think that Iran could be poked and prodded until it reacts in such a way to give the politicians evidence to deploy military action, If they used this tactic I could see how Bush and Co could have there war..

I am just putting this outthere because of a BBC newsnight special on what Iran said 2 weeks ago, something along the lines of America could feel pain and be hurt. The interviewer asked what if any warplans had the DOD got about Iran and the military planner said we have a warplan already drawn up, which we could deploy in 1-2 years.

Why would the DOD have a plan already in place for Iran? its wildly known that the neocons had a plan to get into Iraq as soon as they could, assuming the neocons start a war with Iran will we all be pouring over documents that tell us that Bush was always going to attack Iran just like with the Iraq war?
From this moment what are people's gut feelings about Iran and what will happen next...

I really don't know how this will play out to be honest.

I've always thought a full-scale invasion was very much out of the question. However, the US could bombard Iran for weeks/months and basically break the Iranian's spirit and determination. Remember in the first Gulf War the Iraqi army was dug in, but constant bombing day and night left them totally demoralized - by the time the tanks rolled in they were already waving the white flag, literally! It's possible the same could happen here - the US has incredible air power and cruise missiles. However, Iran is a huge country and the terrain very much favors the defending force.....it would take a US military draft to invade and occupy the country - and then actually holding it for any length of time would be a nightmare, worse than Iraq is now most likely. Therefor I think and invasion is highly unlikely, although not totally impossible.

Air strikes are the most likely option. Cripple the Iranian command & control infrastructure and take out all the nuclear facilities. Knock them back a couple of decades. That could be done relatively easily. The downside is that we probably could never be sure how much we actually disrupted their nuclear program - Iran will obviously say it didn't even get so much as scratched and that all the infidels bombs came down on hospitals and orphanages instead. UN Inspectors would never be allowed back in, so we run the risk of spurring Iran on to develop a nuclear deterrent and then not being able to do anything about it except more attacks and eventually may be forced to invade.

Sanctions are unlikely as China will veto anything serious, even tho Russia is starting to get fed-up with Iran. And anyway - the sanctions will no doubt just end up hurting the Iranian people and the leaders at the top won't be affected at all. Travel bans on Iranian leaders? Big deal You know any sanctions won't make the slightest bit of difference anyway - the US will still insist Iran is developing nukes.

There is also the option (apparently favored by Condi Rice) of creating a "cold war" with Iran. Basically, working slowly to bring them down from within. Funding and training groups to topple the regime. The downside is that it's a long-term plan and Iran could get "the bomb" before it happens, not to mention the fact you could end up with a worse bunch running the country or the place collapsing into civil war.

Bottom line. Don't know. It's too hard to call right now

Chaos.....thats was coming....just prepare your mind for it...and you have to remember they won't have to convince the american public under a "CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER"....I mean a convenient attack here is what they need..and even more convenient to blame Iran for it...I mean face it people if an attack happens who do you think is gonna be blamed? I mean really....the energy is building up now and breaking point is near......the big war is coming......

Originally posted by graphicsboy76
I'd like to hear some thoughts of other ATS members on what they think will happen next regarding Iran....

I personally cannot see Bush and Co taking us into another war on the same scale as Iraq anytime soon , I believe the general public has learned a few things about the lies told by various politicians and are less likely to believe any intel from the govt trying to mount a case for war...

However I do think that Iran could be poked and prodded until it reacts in such a way to give the politicians evidence to deploy military action, If they used this tactic I could see how Bush and Co could have there war..

I am just putting this outthere because of a BBC newsnight special on what Iran said 2 weeks ago, something along the lines of America could feel pain and be hurt. The interviewer asked what if any warplans had the DOD got about Iran and the military planner said we have a warplan already drawn up, which we could deploy in 1-2 years.

Why would the DOD have a plan already in place for Iran? its wildly known that the neocons had a plan to get into Iraq as soon as they could, assuming the neocons start a war with Iran will we all be pouring over documents that tell us that Bush was always going to attack Iran just like with the Iraq war?
From this moment what are people's gut feelings about Iran and what will happen next...

this is just my opinion but i think the west will let this drag out over a few years but israel wants to do something now. i think the west will offer iran an offer which iran cannot accept becuase it would be a terrible offer but it will sound like a very good offer to a person who is uneducated about nucleur technology(eg.. the everyday person sitting at home wathcing TV) so they will try and make it look as if iran is being unreasonable and the west has tried all diplomatic techniques possible and that the only solution is a war just like they did with iraq. they will sabotage every deal and opertunity to the point where its look like a good offer but infact is a terrible offer to a trainned professional so the average person wouldnt know the difference and think that iran is being unreasonable this is how they will start the war by making iran look unreasonable.

Well ok, I'll take a stab at this. Here's what I think might happen:

1) Iran continues talk with Russia, and comes to some kind of agreement to enrich uranium offshore and under Russia's supervision... In that case, there are still problems with this, because at this point it is highly suspected that Iran has built many underground facilities, stalled for a huge amount of time, and this move may be perceived as just a political front coverup for what is really going on behind the scenes. I don't think this by itself will be enough to appease Israel.

The bottom line is that unless the IAEA is allowed full, unconditional access to all sites inside Iran, Iran can do whatever it wants and it still won't be enough.

2) In the abscence of a clean bill of health from the IAEA, I think that this could be a real mess, anyway it goes. Without IAEA approval, my belief is that Israel will attempt limited strikes on whatever facilities they feel will set back Iran the farthest possible with the maximum amount of damage. It remains to be seen how much the US will be involved with those strikes, but one thing is clear: Diplomacy is about near the end of its rope.

Don't forget that this whole time Iran has been furthering development, and it may well be that they already have nuclear weapons to some extent- whether from internal development or from outside assistance. It's just that they know the implications of making that public- that it will surely bring strikes from Israel, at least, and possibly the US.

3) The real kicker is how Iran chooses to respond to limited strikes on their facilities, and that will probably depend on the damage they sustain and if they percieve that anyone else was involved. If Iran opens up the whole region to immediate strikes and unleashes a barrage of missiles on Israel, Saudi Arabia, and US forces in the Gulf, as they have claimed they will do, this could well turn into the dreaded world war 3 we fear. Because at that point you know the US response will be devastating, and we also have the China-Russia dynamic.

You can bet your sweet bippies that China is looking at that southwestern area of Iran which produces 90% of Iran's oil, Khuzestan, just as hard as the US is- and it should be noted that Russia has it's sights on it as well. I would not be surprised if China and Russia have some kind of agreement in place that if this goes down and they win, how the shares will be divided up.

I am of the opinion overall that China and Russia CANNOT afford to let the US gain any more interest in the region, and especially not in Khuzestan.

4) If Israel or the US has the nerve to use low yield, tactical nuclear weapons against Iran in any of these strikes, this is going to get very ugly, very fast. If that occurs, I will move out of Atlanta, immediately. There is no telling at that point what China and Russia will do to counter this stupid, unecessary assault. They may just decide to go for the throat and get this over with, and from all indications both China and Russia are vastly better prepared to deal with the ramifications of such an action than we are. Tactical nukes in the Gulf is a very bad idea. Period.

If Russia and China used nukes against the USA they would also have to take on Australia, all of the entire Europe and the USA hmmm whos going to win that then.....

1)China an Russia launch nukes at USA poss some Europe USA bases.
2)USA counter launch nukes at China an Russia
3)Europe launch nukes at China an Russia
4)Australia subs launch nukes at China an Russia
5)Loads nukes heading towards China an Russia
6)Doubt if China an Russia can launch as many as the enitre USA, Europe and Australia in 1 go, we would bound to take their counter attack bases out if all 3 allies attacked.
7)possible secret weapons of the USA and Europe take out lots of Russia an China nukes enough to survive fairly intact, leaveing Russia an China is the **** as our counter attacks could continue, were as all 3 allies have devestated lots of Russia an China.
8)dunno what happens about subs and their nukes.
9)dunno what happens about bio or chem weps.

[edit on 15-3-2006 by blobby]

I think it is important to look at what our intentions/concerns really are towards Iran. Is the issue soley nuclear proliferation or is that a side issue/pretext for the control of that region? There is no way ( IMO ) a full scale invasion is in the cards as our troops are probably closs to being over extended as it is. I have a feeling Iraq has to be settled in some way before we turn serious attention to its neighbor. And of course having a military base or two in Iraq is probably key before we are to begin projecting our power any further in the region. IMO

An invasion of Iran WILL be the endgame. China and Russia have huge energy investments in Iran and you can bet that they are not going to like America carpet bombing and occupying their stuff. I suspect America will look to Isreal to return the favor for protecting their hyde and policing the arab world. It will be Isreal who sends in two waves of air strikes. Iran will launch SS-N-22's that will be guided by Russian satelites to wipe out primary targets in Isreal. This will go down in less then an hour. Nuclear weapons would likely be launched by Isreal at that point and by the end of the day 10 million Chinese troops will be on the march. Thats something you could see from space no doubt. Enter Russia. One can never tell what they will do however its not a stretch of the imagination to see them storm in at full speed to secure Iran and possibly punish Isreal for starting this all. This will likely bring the American troops home in a hurry. The bottom line is, if Iran is invaded, EVERYTHING comes undone in a day. Sleepers in all nations, espically the U.S are likely to launch the grand jihad and malls, bus stops, subways, sporting events, all blown to shyte. Its a great way to get martial law in place over night and foward the agenda. This IS going to happen sooner then later ladys and gents.

Major urban centers at home are not the place to be when Iran is attacked. Mark my words. Have your route memorized and a backup is not a bad idea either.

[edit on 15-3-2006 by The_Voice]

I suspect it'll just be a punitive air camapign aimed at writing down their nuclear capability rather than 'carpet bombing'.

Russia and China will have been bought off economically and won't intervene initially.

It all depends on Iran's response