Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN

Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 140258
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

...THE TWENTY-SEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC
SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Here we go again...

It will be interesting to see how this one behaves.

Soon to be Tropical Storm Gamma



MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

THE CYCLONE APPEARS CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT...
BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINEDAT 30 KT TO WAIT
FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
NHC

Looks like it's Mexico bound. The models are tight in forecating western path.

This system is having a hard time getting organized. Guess I fell into the mode of seeing rapid development this season and assumed we would witness the same phenomena with this system...ooops.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA APPEARS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE
DECLINE... AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS STARTING TO MATERIALIZE.

AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
AND... COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 29C... PROVIDE AN
ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE DEPRESSION CAN
SURVIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... IT COULD THEREAFTER STRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR NOW REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN
FORECASTING LIMITED STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS... WITH
A MORE STEADY INCREASE THEREAFTER.
NHC

Pending survival over the next couple days this system should become tropical storm Gamma.


(click to enlarge)

Note the recurvation at the end of the run, which spells trouble for the gulf.

It's now Tropical Storm Gamma

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN HAVE REFORMED INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION ELONGATED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 49 KT AT 1500 FT JUST NORTH OF ROATAN ISLAND...ALONG WITH
TWO SPOTS OF 45 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...
ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM GAMMA
WITH 35 KT WINDS. NHC

Forecast track says onward to South Florida

(click to enlarge)

This is sickening. I just got cable tv and internet service restored today, hence my absence from ATS, I just can't believe this season isn't over yet.

And to think it's from the same general vicinity that Wilma came from.

btw So.Florida is getting back to normal, clean up still in high gear, and most services are now restored for the majority, but there are alot of blue roofs around and many damaged roofs without tarps, whatever rain and winds Gamma brings our way will not be welcomed.

Welcome back Worldwatcher....

Looks like it won't reach hurricane status and should move pretty fast if/when it does turn.

Let's hope it's not much of an event.

Welcome back WW good to hear you're OK

Originally posted by Regenmacher

Looks like it won't reach hurricane status

I hope not, I'd hate to see what would happen with even more hurricanes hitting the southern coast.

Anyone have a good sites that shows electrical, or em activity, within or around storms?


[edit on 11/18/05 by redmage]

Welcome back home, WW!!!

I hope this storm does not become a hurricane and reaches your area... That would be too much...

I am glad you have internet restored, tv, etc. and are able to communicate with us again...

Welcome.

Looks like Gamma will never make it to Florida after all

Forecast track changed...



Wb, ww - *waves*

Yep, Gamma is pretty much dead, expected to dissipate soon.

Some of its remnant energy and moisture could end up merging with a low forming in the United States expected to be affecting the east coast this week.

See also: Thanksgiving Eve Blizzard?