Tropical Storm Tammy

The latest from the NHC:

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA... WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING
FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORMING... AND ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED SHORTLY WITH
A SPECIAL ADVISORY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

Tropical Outlook

This is already so close to land, I'm not sure what it can really do...stay tuned

[edit on 10/5/2005 by djohnsto77]

Tropical Storm Tammy has formed:

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK... THE
CENTER OF TAMMY WILL BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TODAY. DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIME OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER ARE
UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

Full Advisory: NHC

Wow, that popped out of nowhere fast!

Should of been classified a TD at 11pm last night,
now I wake up and see they are playing catch up classifying.

WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY BEGAN TO DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER
ABOUT 06Z THIS MORNING... WHICH BECAME WELL-DEFINED BY 08Z ABOUT
40 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. NHC





[edit on 5-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

wow Tammy already!!! I know we had a wave off coast but the NHC kept saying shear would prevent tropical development now we have Tammy

and then there is a huge blob near the Yucatan that could be a hurricane threatening the west coast of Florida by friday

this sucks big time because this weekend is Carnival in Miami and I have my weekend booked solid with outdoor activities

sorry Gaz but I'm hoping this new one stays north and doesn't affect south florida at all....and if it does come your way...well then I owe you one.

Discussion 5 PM NOAA

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TAMMY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE
DATA SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT. THE CREW MADE VISUAL
ESTIMATES OF 50 TO 55 KT IN A FEW SPOTS SO THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE
COULD BE A SHADE LOW. SINCE THE CENTER IS ONLY A FEW HOURS FROM
LANDFALL...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE CENTER MAKE A JAB AT THE COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12.
TAMMY REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

This does not look good for the coast of Georgia. Take a look.


There should be an update shortly from NHC. Flooding problems will be most serious in coastal Georgia, which received 3 - 5 inches of rain this past week, before Tammy came along.


[edit on 5-10-2005 by Harry55]

11 PM UPDATE NOAA

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES...NORTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59
INCHES. TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY.

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TAMMY MOVED INLAND NEAR MAYPORT FLORIDA ABOUT 23Z AND SINCE
THEN...THE
CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER MAINLY OVER WATER.

[edit on 5-10-2005 by Harry55]