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Originally posted by Senor Freebie
I don't like those statistics. Do the math, Lets say the Russia and USA launch their few ABM's and gets a hits with every single missile. Big deal. Thats 100 or less Warheads down over Moscow and 3-4 over USA. That leaves over 15,000 warheads in the USA and 20,000 in Russia. Sure that might not cover the entire landmass of Russia but the radiation would get the survivors. If each nuke had an average radius of 20km of pure destruction that would make for 4 million square km of total destruction in Russia before radiation and 'medium level' destruction was counted. Of course I don't know enough about the true destructive power of nuclear warheads but I doubt any country could hope to have more then a small handful of survivors after 20% of its landmass (starting with big cities and working down to villages) was destroyed. As for the USA, that number would increase to 6 million square km which is the 90% of the mainland, totally and utterly destroyed not including Alaska.
Its when people start thinking that a nuclear conflict could be winnable that rational thinking goes out the window in terms of countries leadership.
Originally posted by Kozzy
You are assuming all of the warheads will be detonated. Many will be destroyed on the ground and malfunction. As I said the average radiation dose in Russia would be 150 REM, which is survivable.
Originally posted by mad scientist
Originally posted by Senor Freebie
I don't like those statistics. Do the math, Lets say the Russia and USA launch their few ABM's and gets a hits with every single missile. Big deal. Thats 100 or less Warheads down over Moscow and 3-4 over USA. That leaves over 15,000 warheads in the USA and 20,000 in Russia.
Your warhead figures are completly wrong.
As of January 2006, the U.S. stockpile contains almost 10,000 nuclear warheads. This includes 5,735 active or operational warheads: 5,235 strategic and 500 nonstrategic warheads
We estimate that as of early 2005, Russia has approximately 7,200 operational nuclear warheads in its active arsenal. This includes about 3,800 strategic warheads, a decrease of some 400 from 2004 due to the withdrawal of approximately 60 ballistic missiles from operational service
www.thebulletin.org...
h nuke had an average radius of 20km of pure destruction that would make for 4 million square km of total destruction in Russia before radiation and 'medium level' destruction was counted.
A nuke with that blast radius would be in the Megatonnes, almost all modern strategic warheads have a size in the several hundred magetonnes. I think you need to redo your calculations with the right information.
Non strategic weapons have even smaller yields.
Originally posted by Sandman11
Ok, so if you read my post above then how is 100 ABM misslie system around Moscow going to stop 400 inbound warheads?
Originally posted by Kozzy
www.ki4u.com...
This was the projected fallout from prevailing winds, Much of the western US would be survivable
Well we may have to agree to disagree on some points here...
The follow on missile, Nike Zeus, was the ABM system the SU copied by many accounts, and put around moscowl
The US in the 1960s, 1970s, and on were at cutting edge technology and every bit as good if not better at ABM engineering. The US just didn't see the cost of keeping it's "Safeguard" base operational, or to cheat on the ABM treaty...
www.paineless.id.au...
There was also a significant Civil Defense program in the 1950s and 1960s, (I am old enough to remember the nuke drills in grade school) but like the SAM system, it atrophied.
The theory was that to try to defend against a massive nuclear attack would be significantly harder than to spend valuable reasources on the ability to attack, and on a cost benefit analysis, it would be cheaper and easier to "deter" an attack than to try to defend against one.
For example it is cheaper and easier to just send a few more missiles against a defended target assuring it's destruction and using that overkill to deter an attack than to attempt to actually defend against an attack, which is the course of action the SU stuck with.
No matter what kind of defensive missile system you think Russia had (and they did cheat on the ABM treaty), it would not be able to stop a coordinated attack.
During the peak of the cold war, the US had around 12,000 strategic warheads, to 10,000 for the SU, and about 400 were going to Moscow alone.
Do you actually think Moscow would survive not being hit many if not hundreds of times because of an unproven, and many accounts a not very successful ABM system and "dual use" SAM system?
I think not. Nuclear war the SU would not have survived, Russia will not survive, and it is nieve and dangerous to adhere to the notion that it could.
Most accounts give a "counter value" against Russia in the hundreds of millions, and only the most extreme cases think otherwise.
www.nrdc.org...
One thing not really talked about are the countermeasures that can effectively be use agaist ABMs, just as the Russians are soo proud of their new Topol missile, with a maneuvering capability, this is not much different than MARVs, which also maneuver, only not in the higher athmosphere using hypersonic propulson, or other countermeasures like decoys and jamming, along with MIRVS which compound the ballistic defense to impossibility.
Directed energy weapons may change this some day, but not in what we are talking of here, and Directed energy weapons are something the US is quite advanced in, although I am sure you are now going to tell me Russia is ahead in that as well...
Originally posted by Sandman11
OK, I grant you that Russia/USSR has cheated on the ABM treaty, the bio-weapons treaty, and probaly the SALT 1, SALT 2, and the START1/2 treaties. So why should the US ever again trust the Russians enough to ever sign another treaty? Why should you blame the US for dropping out of the ABM treaty?
And if Russia has superior laser/directed energy weapons then please post a source!! I don't think you will find much on US ground based weapons other than what we have shared with Isreal on a tactical level, and on airborne weapons (which Russia has no counter) which take considerable technology to miniturize, and would be considerably smaller than other ground based systems... You won't find it. You can't prove it. Don't try, otherwise you are trying to kidd yourself, not the rest of us.
I think that the massive numbers of US weapons (overkill by most) were to counter the defensive weapons the USSR had. It doesn't really matter what the Russians had because we were not even trying to stop them...
So why did the USSR/Russians feel the need to cheat and try to gain an advantage and side whith those in the US who wanted unilateral US disarmement?
Why should we trust Russians at all?
Strategic nuclear weapons were not "far more deadly" on the USSRs side either, in fact they were outnumbered by US strategic warhead totals, not that it would matter, only a couple thousand on enemy territory would end any resembelence to an organized productive industrial and militarily capable country. This would have happened many times over, regardless of the defensive systems the USSR had, and it would have been delivered by stealth, low level, cruise missiles, SRAMS, and gravity bombs as well as Ballistic missiles.
A preemptive strike by the SU would have led to a launch before the first impacts, (Launch on warning, which was controversial in the US because it put the US on a hair trigger to an attack, but was required because of SU layered defenses and the requirement to overwhelm them) which is why the US didn't bother to harden its silo's as the SU did. A coordinated counterforce response would have ended the SU as a major military power. A coordinated countevalue responding attack would end the Soviet Union, and most of it's inhabitents. Same with the US. End of story.
Originally posted by StellarX
The Russian strategy was clearly a counterforce strategy and everything they did was aimed at limitating damage on the USSR by elimination offensive American power.
The Soviet union built up a far deadlier strategic nuclear force AND did massive spending on ABM defense and civil defense works. Why could the USA with it's far larger resources not do both?
Was it political or did the money go into aircraft carriers and other offensive systems? By not doing everything in one's power to layer your defense ( ABM and civil defense) you encourge an attack by placing all your eggs in a location easily radiated.
The USSR deployed many more BM submarines with bigger and longer ranging missiles aswell giving them a capacity to strike harder and faster at American silo complexes and command structures.
Well they had a layered defense that mainly depended on trying to get in a first strike that could disable many American Icbm's. If that failed they had well dispersed mobile ICBM and reloaded hardened Silo complex for repeated counter blows. The ABM/SAM's were apparently mainly to stop Bomber strikes and SLBM's with possible employment against ICBM's.
Stopping a coordinated attack is not the point as much as surving a nuclear war with a stronger resource base and skilled work force to operate it. Since the USA never knew ( or did?) what the Soviets could really do i think it was a rather odd gamble to try deterence instead of defense in depth.
It really does not matter what I think and i only have to look at what learned people in their fields have to say to understand that this is exactly the scenario the Russians prepared to defend against. I have no idea wether the Russian plans would have worked but they only had to believe that it could for them to paly their strategic cards.
The US had far less capacity to survive a nuclear war than the USSR had so the point is kind of moot. It all depends on what the Russians saw as acceptable losses. So now this is "dangerous" talk? Naive? Stick around for the show has barely started!
Counter value does not win wars even if you have a high body count. Aiming for the soft spots looks nice on paper but does not mean much strategically. The Russian government kept going after taking 20 million dead in a conventional war after all.
Originally posted by Sandman11
OK, I grant you that Russia/USSR has cheated on the ABM treaty, the bio-weapons treaty, and probaly the SALT 1, SALT 2, and the START1/2 treaties.
So why should the US ever again trust the Russians enough to ever sign another treaty? Why should you blame the US for dropping out of the ABM treaty?
And if Russia has superior laser/directed energy weapons then please post a source!!
I don't think you will find much on US ground based weapons other than what we have shared with Isreal on a tactical level, and on airborne weapons (which Russia has no counter) which take considerable technology to miniturize, and would be considerably smaller than other ground based systems...
You won't find it. You can't prove it. Don't try, otherwise you are trying to kidd yourself, not the rest of us.
I think that the massive numbers of US weapons (overkill by most) were to counter the defensive weapons the USSR had.
It doesn't really matter what the Russians had because we were not even trying to stop them...
So why did the USSR/Russians feel the need to cheat and try to gain an advantage and side whith those in the US who wanted unilateral US disarmement?
Why should we trust Russians at all?
Strategic nuclear weapons were not "far more deadly" on the USSRs side either,
in fact they were outnumbered by US strategic warhead totals, not that it would matter,
only a couple thousand on enemy territory would end any resembelence to an organized productive industrial and militarily capable country.
This would have happened many times over, regardless of the defensive systems the USSR had, and it would have been delivered by stealth, low level, cruise missiles, SRAMS, and gravity bombs as well as Ballistic missiles.
A preemptive strike by the SU would have led to a launch before the first impacts, (Launch on warning, which was controversial in the US because it put the US on a hair trigger to an attack, but was required because of SU layered defenses and the requirement to overwhelm them) which is why the US didn't bother to harden its silo's as the SU did.
A coordinated counterforce response would have ended the SU as a major military power.
A coordinated countevalue responding attack would end the Soviet Union, and most of it's inhabitents. Same with the US. End of story.
OK, I grant you that Russia/USSR has cheated on the ABM treaty, the bio-weapons treaty, and probaly the SALT 1, SALT 2, and the START1/2 treaties.
So why should the US ever again trust the Russians enough to ever sign another treaty? Why should you blame the US for dropping out of the ABM treaty?
Originally posted by Sandman11
Well to take this point by point will take even more time and space.
-Whether the USSR cheated or not does not matter as much as if it were a usable advantage.
Evidently it wasn't. The Russians now have 3800 strategiv warheads, and the US about 5000.
Most of the Russian's are on land based weapons, most of the US on mobile sea based or bomber weapons.
Draw whatever strategic superiority conclusion you want. Russian superiority has never been realistically claimed, regardless of how ignorant you think of my opinion.
The US government has had it's population's best interest in mind from the get go.
You claim that US Generals and Admirals have been unhappy with the choices made, so please send those links.
I don't see a major mass resignition from the US command structure over any inadaquacies in the choices of weapons and priorities.
I am just questioning the need to ever sign another treaty or take any existing treaty with the Russians seriously...
-Evidently the Soviet Airborne laser didn't do well, did it? The US ABL is nearing operational status.
(I don't think those sources you posted are the end of the issue, or even that credible in the subject regarding a clearly highly classified topic. Russian laser technology is good, but I just don't think it would compare to what the west, not just the US, has today. Germany could probably put both countries to shame if it tried.)
-And I am not hostile, I like you. In fact you sound rather intelligent. What are you doing next friday night????
-Overkill made any effort by the Russians/Soviets a waste.
It is what ensures deterrence, and prevented any miscalculations.
To spend all effort on the offense is to not waste reasources in what matters most, which is to convince the most intelligent top brass of your adversary that you are capable of taking them out, regardless of what you can do to them.
-Attacking US silos won't matter much if they are empty
and most likely would be spent on hitting SU silos to either take out their missiles or make them unusable to reload.
I mentioned this before, but you ignored it. Launch on warning is the US counter to Russian counterforce first strike against US missile silo's.
-US SLBMs roughly equaled SU ICBM warheads.
Accuracy of US SLBMs equalled SU ICBMs with the Trident, and later Trident D-2 with the W-88 warhead, maybe superior.
US ICBMs roughly equaled the SU SLBMs, in numbers and vulnerability, later to be much more vulnerable to US Hunter Killer Attack subs, as US ICBMs were to a first strike if they didn't "launch on warning".
If the US 'launched on warning', then that advantage doesnt exist does it???
US bombers have carried several times what Russian bombers would to target.
The latest, the ACM was stealthy and long ranged. As I remember through the cold war both sides had roughly equal ballistic warheads, the US had superior bomber numbers...
www.thebulletin.org...
-Why do you think the US is going broke on carrier battle groups?
It is something that the US has had for fifty years and perfected, although I am sure you think they are vulnerable....
Regardless, each carrier costs a few billion out of a budget of 400 billion a year. Their cost is worth it for their benefit they give the US to have a dozen of them.
-In general, you underestimate the US,
which probably does have quite an advanced laser technology, ABM technology,
a long term nuclear war fighting strategy, taking into account all Soviet/Russian defenses and countermeasures.
The US has had for over a decade over three times the money spent on defense and defense reasources than the Russians,
and probably has at least the laser, counterforce, and just as much countervalue when the game comes to that point.
I don't think you need to tell the US how to best defend itself compared to a second rate superpower like the SU, which counted on numbers over technology..
Clearly the world is different today, where a smaller US force clearly, totally, easily and massively dominated a larger force of Iraqi tanks aircraft, armoured vehicles, artillery and any other number you can think of.
Soviets thought that "quantity is a quality" but not as much of one as they thought. So stop thinking the Russians are so superior. If you can't then just answer this;
Have Russians won any war without US help within the last 100 years???
Great Britian has a superior navy.
China has a superior Army,
Switzerland, China and India (who buys russian equipment) have superior airforces...
Underestimate the US if you wish, I am done with this conversation.
Nuclear war will end anyone who confronts the US or Russia. End of story. Again...
[edit on 3-1-2006 by Sandman11]