Possible Human-to-Human H5N1 transmission

The WHO and other organizations will be hard pressed to ignor this case. These people DIED from this flu. When will the WHO and others finally admit that H5N1 is breaking out and declare at least a level 4 or 5 alert?

www.latimes.com...

3 Indonesian Deaths May Be Due to Bird Flu
From Associated Press

July 15, 2005

JAKARTA, Indonesia — Bird flu is suspected in the deaths of a man and his two daughters, and the lack of evidence that they had contact with sickened poultry raises concerns of possible human-to-human transmission, Indonesia's health minister said today.

The victims, a 38-year-old man and girls ages 9 and 1, would be Indonesia's first human fatalities linked to the disease. They lived in a suburb of Jakarta, the capital, and died in the last week and a half, Health Minister Siti Fadila Supari said.

"These are suspected bird flu cases," Supari said at a news conference attended by World Health Organization officials. "We have sent specimens to Hong Kong to confirm the results, which will take seven to 10 days."

Personally, I think this bird flu is going to be everything they fear and more. I also think it doesn't get more attention in the msm because they aren't supposed to....read are told NOT to....this will cause panic on a scale like nothing else when it hits Europe and the US. It may also be a very good excuse to lock the borders.....something a lot of people haven't pondered yet.

I read a few months ago about a S Korea study that eating kimshi (sp?!) may help, but never heard another word about it. I find the stuff revolting, but I'd eat it by the shovelfulls and force-feed it to my kids if need be lol

Yes, I heard about kimshi also, althought I have not heard anything about how it suppresses the flu.

BTW, I think everyone "In the Know" CDC, WHO, CIDRAP etc..are underestimating H5N1. I have the feeling that when h2h is achived, we are going to see WAY more deaths than what has been projected. Most mortaliy tables are based on 20-30% infection rates world wide with a paltry 3-10% death rate.

Really now, I don't know what the infection percentage would be, but lets say 40% of the population (world wide) = 6.5 billion x .40 = 2.6 BILLION infected only.

Now comes the hard part. H5N1 has historically registered 50-80% death rate!

Do the math...2.6 Billion x avg death rate of 65% = 1.69 BILLION.

Am I that far away from reality?

Keep in mind...
even China is saying that they think that it affects some people more than others. The spread might be much higher than known, because people with certain genetic immunity would only get a normal cold type symptom... or maybe just a sniffle...

so it is hard to throw around numbers, when we don't even know how many have already gotten it and got well...(without seeing a doctor)

In another article, it mentions that genetic backgrounds that were exposed to the black plague might be more immune...

everyone reacts differently to viruses bacteria, and toxins...
there is no "status quo" when it comes to world health...

Originally posted by LazarusTheLong
The spread might be much higher than known, because people with certain genetic immunity would only get a normal cold type symptom... or maybe just a sniffle...

True to a point. Genetic immunity would require that the body has had some form of the pathogen within that body in the past, or aquired from a parent. Unfortunately H5N1 has proven to be a very robust virus. It has now aquired E627K (Human marker) into its sequence. All viruses have the E genome but up until a month ago, none had the complete sequence thru K. This polymorphism is responsible for the high virulence found in the China out break. This isolate, when infected into chickens and mice caused a 100% mortality in both! 20 hours to death for the chickens and 4 days for the mice.

Point is H5N1 is throwing off so many variants, it would be pure chance that someone would be immune to this novel virus reassorment.

Its not a threat , if it was the world would be full of cases of bird flu , which its not.As far as i know the only cases of this are in the Far East. If it was anything like the plague it would have spread by now.

Originally posted by Bulldog 52
Its not a threat , if it was the world would be full of cases of bird flu , which its not.As far as i know the only cases of this are in the Far East. If it was anything like the plague it would have spread by now.

Not necessarily if it JUST achieved human to human transmission through a mutation. Now how contaigous it is, thats a good question. Another good question is what is it's incubation period now. When an epidemic starts it starts slowly and quietly, this could explode in poorer countries like a bomb and infect and kill quite a few in rich countries to boot. I might very well depopulate whole swaths of the planet, but then again it may not. We may adapt and contain it but when and where?

Not necessarily if it JUST achieved human to human transmission through a mutation. Now how contaigous it is, thats a good question. Another good question is what is it's incubation period now.

The complete cycle of H5N1 is not fully known yet. Best estimates are 2-6 day incubation period before victim becomes symptomatic and then another few days before severe respiatory problems require intervention.

As for the H2H transmission becomming effiencent, that depends upon the reassortment that has taken place in the "H" portion of the surface proteins. Since the virus is always replicating imperfectly, natural selection would determine which combination allows it to thrive. The more effiencent it becomes...the more prevalent that particular variant will spread. Lets just hope that it's not the isolate in western China.

Originally posted by Bulldog 52
Its not a threat , if it was the world would be full of cases of bird flu , which its not.As far as i know the only cases of this are in the Far East. If it was anything like the plague it would have spread by now.

Sorry old man. The plague was spread by the fleas on rats and is not a viral RNA strand but a bacterium named Yersinia pestis.

As far as being "not a threat", tell it to those families that have lost their loved ones and pray that it does not reach level 6 (effiencent H2H transmission) status.

From a smoker to a smoker.