posted on Jul, 7 2005 @ 11:58 PM
North Korea is basically bluffing. Kim Jong Il is anything but an idiot. He knows that having nuclear weapons is going to get him the best possible
deal in terms of aid, and protection for his regime. Common sense dictates that North Korea will not launch an unprovoked attack on the South, Japan,
the US, or any other nation. It would be suicide. It'd be madder than MAD. Instead of Mutually Assured Destruction, it'd be SAD- Self Assured
Destruction. Kim Jong Il has all the patience in the world, and has no problem watching millions of his people starve to death because of his
policies. So long as he has food on his plate and control of his country, he's more than willing to push the envelope.
Basically right now its a staring contest between Kim and George W. Bush. Neither wants to be the first to blink, and give in to the other. Neither
wants to look soft in the eyes of their own people and in the eyes of the international community. Notice how North Korea waited until an invasion of
Iraq was all but certain before revealing that they had nuclear weapons. This was a strategic move, as they know the US was too tied up in Iraq and
Afghanistan to launch an effective military campaign against them. Kim and his father have not held such a tight grip on their nation for the past
50+ years by being morons. They may be sick and twisted, but I'm willing to bet they're boarderline geniuses.
My bet is this will all end with some kind of aid package for North Korea as well as a guarantee of protection. The Koreans will have to give up
their nuclear weapons and allow unfettered inspections by the IAEA. This is a best-case scenareo, but I think it's the best case for everyone
involved. Therefore, it's the most likely outcome. Just my humble opinion...