China's defence spending - fact or fiction ?

China has officially announced that its overall military spending would amount to $29.9 billion, a low figure that many analysts have long believed bears little relation to reality.

In 2004 the Pentagon noted that for 2003, overall Chinese military spending ranged between $50 and $70 billion. If we take the Pentagon’s estimate as a baseline, then for 2004, which saw an "official" Chinese increase of 11.6 percent, spending might have risen from $55.8 to $78.1 billion, Similarly modifying the announced Chinese 2005 budget increase of by 12.6 percent yield actual expenditures between $62.8 and $87.9 billion. Other estimates have long held that Chinese military spending has reached or exceeded $100 billion.

What's your take on this ? What do you think is an accurate figure ?
Going by past experience, i would'nt believe the Chinese Government's official numbers.

A recent research by the U.S. think-tank RAND Corporation shows that China's defence spending is 40%~70% percent higher than official Chinese government figures — but substantially lower than many previous outside estimates of the share of GDP that China devotes to defence.

The study estimates that the purchasing power of current Chinese military spending runs between $69 billion and $78 billion in 2001 dollars, and could reach $185 billion in 2001 dollars in 2025. This amounts to more than 40 percent of current U.S. defence spending. By comparison, U.S. defence spending was 3.9% of its GDP in 2004, amounting to nearly $430 billion.

link

China’s Defence Spending Lower Than Previously Estimated

A recent research by the U.S. think-tank RAND Corporation shows that China's defence spending is between 2.3% and 2.8% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product

www.rand.org...

from what i know that is low

Rise of China's defence spending "modest"
www.chinadaily.com.cn...


Defence Spending Strictly Budgeted
www.china.org.cn...





The higer figures like 70% more than offical budget includes dual-use technology R&D research in engines trucks. and weapons imports

The Pentagon plays up "China threat theory"
english.people.com.cn...

The pentagon's evaluation on China's military spending is "seriously inflated", said a Rand research report on the annual report on the military power of China by US Department of Defence, which will be delivered to the Congress soon. The report said that the play-up of "China military threat" theory on purpose should be rectified.


Report Details China's Military Spending

SHANGHAI, China -- China spends much more on its military than it officially acknowledges, but far less than some experts believe, a U.S.-funded report said Friday.

The report, by the think tank Rand Corp., said that in terms of purchasing power, China's People's Liberation Army - which includes the country's naval and air forces - spends between $69 billion and $78 billion a year, estimated in 2001 U.S. dollars, well below some estimates by the U.S. government and some outside experts.


www.newsmax.com...


EDIT:forgot to put links

[edit on 7-7-2005 by chinawhite]