Oil Peak Not Coming Soon

Global oil production is not likely to peak anytime soon, contrary to talk that has helped propel prices close to $60 a barrel, although lower prices may still be a few years away, a prominent energy consultancy said Tuesday.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates said that, instead of a crest being reached sometime this decade, an inflection point in world oil output will occur sometime beyond 2020, after which production will plateau for several more decades.

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The price of oil could "slip well below $40 a barrel as 2007-08 nears," CERA said.

More to the article here.

news.yahoo.com...

I guess what they are saying is that today, oil production doesnt fit with the actual consumption and that is what drives the high price.

But increasing production doesnt mean the oil supply will last forever.

I wonder if anyone can actually do a good survey on oil supply.

[edit on 21-6-2005 by Dulcimer]

CERA said it believes that between now and 2010 there will be a substantial increase in worldwide oil production capacity. It said that "as a result, supply could exceed demand by as much as 6 million to 7.5 million barrels per day later in the decade" that will lead to an extended period of lower prices beginning as early as 2008.

The price of oil could "slip well below $40 a barrel as 2007-08 nears," CERA said.

Ha, now how convenient is that? Oil prices scheduled to go down in 2008? I'm not saying its a conspiracy, but just really....convenient for certain people.

Originally posted by Flinx


Ha, now how convenient is that? Oil prices scheduled to go down in 2008? I'm not saying its a conspiracy, but just really....convenient for certain people.

Hahaha. Indeed indeed.

This should start a new conversation lol.

Argh, damn it, I just wrote a long reply to this and lost my Internet connection right after I hit "post."

Basically, this report flies in the face of all kinds of competing high-priced energy consultancy, which is based on hard evidence and several-party extra-Saudi estimations that Saudi oil estimates may be 300 or more percent over-estimated, and if I were an investor, I would not count on this report at all.

Zip

The CERA report acknowledges that there will be fewer giant oil fields found and produced after 2010, but it argues that with new technology and multibillion dollar investments the petroleum industry has the ability to provide more than enough supply to meet rising demand.

It's nearly 2006. Where is this technology? I have heard nothing but rumours of this new tech. I don't completely doubt it, but I wonder what is holding back its unveiling.

Where are these investments? No one is investing! CERA, as far as I'm concerned, is progagandizing to encourage investment and reduce concern.

EDIT: I forgot to mention, as for this quote, we have been in the decline of oil exploration for more than a decade. Oil exploration has met, sustained, and then said goodbye to that peak a long time ago. To say that we will not find many more large oilfields after 2010 is like saying "we will not find many more new species of elephants after 2010."

Zip

[edit on 6/21/2005 by Zipdot]

I suggest we should take C.E.R.A. report with a huge grain of salt.

They just completely ignore the growing demands of oil in China and India due to its higher population density on both countries (the higher the number of consumers, the greater the demands).

Regardless of whether or not a peak is coming in 10 years or 30, it's a good idea to switch over to other energy sources. It can't hurt...the alternative can and will hurt.

An interesting read:

As the U.S. Senate debates the national energy policy, many are aware of the hype surrounding this academic construct. A Web search of "peak oil" turns up an array of experts who believe that a pending peak in world oil production will soon lead to global economic collapse.

In their rosier scenarios, experts predict sky-high gasoline prices that will crush oil-dependent economies like the United States. In their darker forecasts, they say people won't be able to obtain food, heat their homes or live securely during a period of global famine and resource wars.

And goes on to further mention:

Although talk of peak oil has rightfully focused global attention on the need to find alternatives to oil, the absolute peak of world oil production is an issue of supply and, in many ways, irrelevant. Unlike the 1973 oil embargo, in which high prices were the result of an OPEC-orchestrated supply cut back, high prices today are largely a reflection of demand-supply imbalance.

The global demand for conventional oil has, or will soon, outstrip the global capacity to supply conventional oil. Does that mean we are all doomed?

While the shock value of doomsday peak oil predictions is entertaining, it is far more important to recognize the reality of high global energy demand and begin to seek solutions — such as the energy policy being debated in the Senate — that could help mitigate the supply-demand imbalance. Solutions abound, but will take planning and coordinated investment.

Fossil fuels' demise oversold: Boring fact is oil not soon tapped out


A very interesting read, indeed.




seekerof

[edit on 26-6-2005 by Seekerof]

The thing with any oil quantity predictions is that they are usually more guess work than anything. Its hard to even think about how much oil is used a day. Its almost unreal.

Ive noticed in the area I live that they are test drilling for oil, something they have never done before in my area.

It really does make you wonder how much is out there. Hell, even if there is "alot" who knows how long it will last at our current (and growing) consumption.

The sad fact is that more and more people dont seem to care about consumption anyway.

AOL Keyword: smog

Originally posted by the_oleneo
I suggest we should take C.E.R.A. report with a huge grain of salt.

They just completely ignore the growing demands of oil in China and India due to its higher population density on both countries (the higher the number of consumers, the greater the demands).

But at the same time, don't discount the fact that the Chinese/Indian standard of living and income level are both nowhere near that of the western world. If we're feeling the pinch from high oil prices, you know the average citizen over there is as well. If these prices keep rising, demand is going to fall off a cliff pretty soon. The fact that US automakers can't give away a new SUV right now is at least some evidence of that. In the end, what is going to happen is that these high oil prices are going to stifle domestic shipping and international trade, a global recession will result, and demand (and prices) for oil will take a dive. I think it'll happen in 6-12 months. When it does, oil will stabilize at a more natural equilibrium of about $35-40/barrel, I think, as speculators and the oil doom-and-gloomers are run out of the market after getting soaked in the price free-fall.

Speaking of the Chinese, its notable have also had an energy supply shortage that may have caused an artificial run-up in demand in the last few years, but are attempting to build several new coal power plants and coal liquification facilities to help ease their need for oil. Additionally, they're also very inefficient in their oil usage, so there may be room to improve on that front as well. Some are beginning to sound the warnings on China's oil demand:

edition.cnn.com...

Originally posted by vor78
If these prices keep rising, demand is going to fall off a cliff pretty soon.

Yes that is true however, after the demand "falls off a cliff" and the
prices fall accordingly and people begin to start seeing less of there
money spent on oil and oil products and more money in there pockets
the demand will creep back up causing the demand to rise again.
Eventually pushing the price back up untill it is so high it forces
people to stop buying so much oil due to the economic hardship. Thus
the cycle will repeat itself several times over the next several years
(mabey more) getting progressively worse each time as the shortage
becomes more severe at the same time demand keeps climbing.
China alone increased there oil demand by 40% in 2004. There is a lot
of evidence that we are on the peak right now. check out

www.hubbertpeak.com...

we will ride this rollercoaster for some time before we finally go
over the edge, but we will be going over the edge, be it sooner or later.