Politics, Control, and Oil

The following is just an idea, I make no claim of this being true, nor offer any proof....just something to contemplate.

The DoE for years has recognized the peak potential of non-renewable resources. Having delt with oil peaking in the US in the 70's, the fear of a world peak became a signifigant player in energy policy.

Come 2000-2004 the world was faced with increasing demand in areas like China and Africa. The time line was bumped up and the slope toward the peak was getting steeper. American demand for oil was also continuing to rise with the wealthy nation demanding travel energy for vaccations and business.

After the events of 9-11-01 American Markets went into shock and the adminstration of ex-oil executives cashed in on the opportunity to boost thier profits. And no one called them on it for a good reason.

Padding the wallets of the oil exec was side effect of testing and changing the american public. Seeing how high the gasoline and oil prices could be pushed before casugin people to look into hybrid cars and talking about the oil that was always in the background was more important than keeping oil companies in check.

Once the limit of change was found, the DoE knew what it would take to get people to buy hybrid cars and debate the consuption of oil. In addition, the demand for oil pushed companies to look into new source of oil and to build new piplines and get an of how much oil flow we could sustain.

The key effect of the war in Iraq, and other pressures on oil price was not to make BP and other companies rich, but to change the mind of the oil consuming public. To get people to value saving gas and understand the role oil plays in all our lives.

The effect was to make people aware, at least in a small way, how oil impacts thier life. All this so that people start to change and look at thier consuption. Preparation for the coming problems over the next 50 years while we change from an oil world to multi-energy source world.

The peak of any resouce is a rough time and the best way to face it is to control the way a population sees the problem. Having people complain about gas prices now and debate world event in relation to oil is power and community building. So in 10-15 years when prices start to reach unbalancing levels, people are already talking and looking at alternatives.

And yes, this means the government is on our side. That while sub-cultures were aware of the issue at hand, the general population was not...until now.

This is social politics and engineering at work. This is how we survive.

Very interesting theory Quest. I can see how some of your thoughts may be reality. Also it's rare around here to see someone float the possibility of the government having the interests of "the people" in mind when it does something.

I have no doubt that the DoE does a little social engineering here and there, and definately they are slow and cautious in releasing info to the public at large. Just go to their website and look at the oil industry reports on consumption, those reports are put out regularly but are slow to be posted on the website, you have to look at financial sites to find the info when it first becomes available. However I don't think it is a sinister plot, just a typical bureaucracy.

Changing people's minds is a hard thing to do... Getting 51% of voters to vote for you can win an election, but only mass social engineering can change a culture.

And yes, in this case the conspiracy is that the US government is saving itself and its citizen from themselves.

Compare the world of 2002 and 2005... all the sudden hybrid sales are up, alternate energy is a topic on most minds, and books about oil are every where. Even if only 1% of people changed to hybrid cars and 10% now are concerned about oil and alternative power, this is ASTOUNDINGLY fast social change.

In 2001 I worked at a Toyota dealership and the Prius hybrid was a hot commodity then. We didn't even keep one in stock to demo for customers but we sold quite a few. We required a $2500 non-refundable deposit and a 4-6 month wait. Our service department only had one qualified tech to work on them and the saftey requirments were outrageous.

I think hybrids were hot in the beginning but sales cooled somewhat because of the hassle in aquiring one and the limits in variety and styles. Things have changed now with more brands in the hybrid market and a little better technology which helps sales.

Government conspiracy or not the oil prices are definately playing a role in speeding up research into alternative energy and fuel saving measures. But I think you also have to consider a natural trend in the process of bringing these things to market.