When will it run out ?

I can remember being told in high school (25 years ago) that our oil supplies had maybe 30 to 35 years more before they would be completely depleted. That was obviously wrong, but where do we stand now.

Assuming that we find no major oil reserves beyond what we know of right now, and assuming say a 10% increase in World oil consumption year on year starting with 2006.

When will it run out ?

Never, it will get far too expensive to use before it runs out completely.

Good point.

Let me phrase it this way then. With current usage levels, when will we be forced to scale back significantly on our rate of consumption. Significantly as in, no more gasoline powered vehicles.

One answer here...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

You were being told 25 years agaio that oil would become scarce in 30 to 35 years And Id say they hit the nail on the head on that one.
if its been 25 years from when you learned this and the oil pek is now and reductions start dramiticaly in 3 years that makes 27 years total.
and give our expanding need of and limets we have in production of has already started causing oil to go from 10$ per barrel to 57 60$ per barrel in three years.So immange if this rate of incress of price contuniues for another 3 years your talking 150$ per barrel in 3 years from now.
At wich point the price at the pump will be 7 to 10$ per gallon
Of corse our econimes couldent stand such a large incress and will collaps
well you get the photo.

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My first years as a geology student were 1980/81/82. My professors at the time used to draw best estimate time-lines of various resources, their availability, peaks, and use ratios at known consumption rates. Oil reserves were not as exactly defined then, although we had fairly good guesses. Research was still needed to determine feasibility of oil-shale extraction, unexplored areas of the planet, etc.

Speaking in general terms, there were a lot of cross-over points (use/demand exceeds availability) beginning in 2020/2025. About 2035 was considered to be the ''crisis'' time when compensation could no longer be foreseen. Translation: some of these cross-over points (loosely, peak points in todays terminology), were more critical than others. The 2025 era meant degraded lifestyle but still ''do-able.'' 2035/2040 looked like, for sure, some sort of global die-off would have to happen.

Given our knowledge at the time and efforts to push these dates back, it was estimated optimistically we might conserve & stretch our resources so the ''crisis'' peaks might occur as late as 2045/2050, with some luck. With real luck & hard work, a sustainable global energy & food cycle seemed possible, meaning we might expend the majority of petrochem by 2040 or 2050, but that viable alternatives could be developed.

But then we got ray-gun & emperor bush the Ist and .... well, let's just say the ''optimistic'' estimates were squandered before the 80's ended. 2015 for the first serious crunches (try to remember that as 2008/2010 hit us and it seems like it's getting bad then). The crisis peaks look like they may be here as fast as 2020/2025 now.

Sorry ... were you looking for a happy bed-time story ..?

-- datora

wow. thats pretty soon. any chance people will start using alternative methods by then? hydrogen fuel cells? thats my favorite one ive heard so far. any toher alternative mthods, or would a post like that belong somewhere else?

Posted by Al
any chance people will start using alternative methods by then?

Always a chance. Problem is, "by then" is far too late. Needs to already be happening. Some small inroads have been made, but the basic flaw is this bankrupt idea that we will somehow "devlop solutions" at the time when we run out. Solutions need to be implemented twenty or thirty years before that happens (2005/2008 would have been nice) .. we need the energy from the petrochem to devlop the ''next thing(s).''

Posted by Al
any toher alternative mthods, or would a post like that belong somewhere else?

Probably. I'm still reading what's here, mixed with various searches to see the current state. Fuel cells require a lot of resources and energy to develop. If research continues & we get some breakthroughs ... yah, they'll be a Good Thing. Otherwise ...

There won't be any single solution; bad mental box to premise yourself (ourselves) into.. It'll be a mix of three or five or more. Each will begin to fill it's own niche instead of the ''petrochem for everything'' mentality of this past century.

Ecology begs multiple, non-monoculture solutions for greatest stability and ability to to withstand and adapt to change. Transportation one way (or several), power grids another, and we need a replacement for fertilizers, too ... most of ours are developed form petrochem. Use that up & we don't have fertilizer (ooops). What will we use to manufacture plastic from ...?

But, when will we run out is the topic ....

Don't know, we can only estimate. Too many factors are changing all at once to give an exact year ... and the ''crisis point'' may be because something else failed (lack of agricultural land, potable water, sustainable harvest of food or trees from land & sea, etc.). We might actually have recoverable, ''affordable'' petrochem in 2030, but be in the thro's of a plague or famine.

-- datora

[edit on 16-6-2005 by datora]

LNG imports will help for 10-20 years. It is not that difficult to convert
vehicles to compressed natural gas. People will learn to live with significantly
less cargo room (as the tanks will be big) and lower range.

After Peak Oil and Peak Gas, then we're really really screwed.

Transportation and petrochems are by far the toughest problem.

The cost of raw oil is less of a factor in various petrochem processes however,
and so we will continue to use petroleum for these even after it gets quite expensive.

All stationary power production has moved away from oil due to economics already.

Transportation is where it's toughest. There are alternatives for ground transportation (natural gas, as above) which will result in less desirable vehicles.

Where there's absolutely no substitute is for aircraft. Air travel will go back to being expensive enough to be only for celebrities and zillionaires, like the 1930's.

When will it run out ?

whenever they want it to

no one has any data besides the oil companies themselves, almost all of this is speculation

I can tell you to the day when we will run out of oil.............

That will be the day I trade in my hybrid car for a gas guzzling SUV...........................that's the day we run out of oil

I graduated high school 30+ years ago.I recall doing a research project on this subject for earth sciences class.As I recall it, the generally conceded peak production point would be some where between 2004 and 2010.Because of the way the producers get the oil pumped out of the earth the quality oil we use for gasoline production will be the first to diminish.I'm planning on getting a diesel sometime next year and rigging it to work on biodiesel.An electromagnetic motor fueled by solar power would be better,but there are no logical choices available on the market yet.

Does anybody remember the 'Club of Rome' in the '60s?

These infallible experts assured us that the world was going to run out of LOTS of commodities before 2000.

We have MORE oil in proven reserves now than when these 'experts' had their 15 minutes of fame.



Do a 'Google'.


ozjohn

Oil wont run out but will be forgoten and wont be a primary source of energy of the world, Gas will.

There recover of oil in will is still just 30% recover and there is many other sitaution that could effect the effieciy of that.

Now there is some test of deep sea oil platform so it still here.

As long as there are eng there is still oil

Oil wont run out but will be forgoten and wont be a primary source of energy of the world, Gas will.

There recover of oil in will is still just 30% recover and there is many other sitaution that could effect the effieciy of that.

Now there is some test of deep sea oil platform so it still here.

As long as there are eng there is still oil

The following predictions are from "Living in the Environment" by Miller copywrite 2005. This was assigned to me for my senior capstone course in environmental studies. Predictions given in readings stated that the bulk of current day consumption will continue to go unchecked and expand until around 2020. At that time, growth and consumption would no longer be possible and oil would be too expensive for many. With the lowered consumption fuel reserves would last around 2055. We will never use the last drop - much like we still have trees today after the days of wood burning furnaces. More would stay around after alternatives pop up.