Hurricane Predictions for 2005?

Have any of you seen a forecast? I've looked in several places and as of yet have been unable to locate any info. If anyone has a link, will you please post it...thanks..

try this one

hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu...

Thanks for the link ~ now I need to start planning and preparing, as I'm only 2 hours from Charleston. Hugo will always be a vivid reminder of not waiting until the last moment to square things away.

From what I've heard, this is supposed to be a very active Hurrican season. A very active fire season is also predicted. Oh, and floods. And locusts...

Sorry. Couldn't resist.

I live in Naples, it is on the south west tip of Florida. The last MAJOR Hurricane to hit us dead on was Donna in the 60's. Charley came vaey close,hitting Punta Gorda just a few miles North but not dead on. The news has said this is going to be a very active season. I also heard something about El Nino being active again...i'm not sure though.

Lets just hope its not a bad hurricane season, just a bad Tropical storm season. Great surf comes with them. hehe

Oh god, here we go again! I live in central Florida and got slammed by last years hurricanes, it was hell. I don't wan't to deal with another active season for a long time. Living without electricity for weeks at a time is no fun..........besides, no electricity, no ATS!!!!!

I live in tampa! Luckily my hood was the only hood with power in the district. I would really hate to see this happen. Im so sick of having to evacuate. This year wether its risky or not I stay home !

This could be the year where the NorthEast gets hit by a major hurricane... It's been well overdue for it.

Im told its worse if the North East gets hit. My friend said if a Cat. 4-5 hit that way it would make andrew look like a baby.

I think Hurricanes are overrated...

I went swimming in the ocean during both Gloria and Andrew, and I gotta tell you, it was a hell of a lot of fun.

Dangerous, foolhardy, insane? Maybe. But it was dark and stormy, and the waves were tossing me into the sky like a toy. It was a blast. I wasn't too worried because I'm a strong swimmer, and I've been around the ocean all my life, but just so we're clear "Don't try this at home kiddies."

The NE gets hurricanes that are spent, usually. If we got one that was in full bloom, we might have some issues with beach houses getting washed away, and power lines tossed about. I still don't think we're anywhere near as vulnerable as the beach communities down south.

I worry more about tornadoes frankly. One of those suckers cleared a mountain of trees not more than a few years ago in the Berkshires, and we're not even supposed to get tornadoes.

Originally posted by looking4truth
Oh god, here we go again! I live in central Florida and got slammed by last years hurricanes, it was hell. I don't wan't to deal with another active season for a long time. Living without electricity for weeks at a time is no fun..........besides, no electricity, no ATS!!!!!

My brother lives near St. Augustine and he felt the same way after last year's season....time to get the generator serviced and ready to go.

Look on the bright side. At least well get to have some hurricane parties if a few head our way .

Originally posted by WyrdeOne
I think Hurricanes are overrated...

I went swimming in the ocean during both Gloria and Andrew, and I gotta tell you, it was a hell of a lot of fun.

Dangerous, foolhardy, insane? Maybe. But it was dark and stormy, and the waves were tossing me into the sky like a toy. It was a blast. I wasn't too worried because I'm a strong swimmer, and I've been around the ocean all my life, but just so we're clear "Don't try this at home kiddies."

The NE gets hurricanes that are spent, usually. If we got one that was in full bloom, we might have some issues with beach houses getting washed away, and power lines tossed about. I still don't think we're anywhere near as vulnerable as the beach communities down south.

I worry more about tornadoes frankly. One of those suckers cleared a mountain of trees not more than a few years ago in the Berkshires, and we're not even supposed to get tornadoes.

I beg to differ for one simple reason....Trees and Rain. The Northeast has a ton more trees than the southern coast and also a lot of valleys. We're just not built like the southern coast for storm surges and such.

Let's take Tropical Storm Floyd (Not Hurricane for Northeasters) for example.....

www.firstscience.com...
www4.ncsu.edu...
www.cnn.com...

I lived in the Lower Hudson Valley at the time of the storm..

"The Hudson Valley (north of New York City) has been very hard hit," Gov. George Pataki told CNN on Friday. "There are tens of thousands of homes without power. The commuter rail lines (north of the city) have been really washed out, so it's going to take some time to get them back to normal." National Guard troops joined highway workers to clean debris off roads.

And here's another interesting read on what could happen with a Category 4 Hurricane and up.

www2.sunysuffolk.edu...

A storm surge prediction program used by forecasters called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) has predicted that in a category 4 hurricane, John F. Kennedy International Airport would be under 20 feet of water and sea water would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan. The report did not estimate casualties, but did state that storms "that would present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in heavy loss of life" in the New York City area (Time, 1998).

Some of the key observations from the storm surge maps for Nassau and Suffolk Counties:

Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about all of the immediate south shore of the Island, including the north side of Great South Bay locations and both sides of the north and south forks.
Montauk Highway (RT. 27A) is completely covered by flood waters during a Category 3 hurricane. Therefore, this road would be considered impassable during the storm.
The highest storm surges (Category 4) would occur in the following regions:
Amityville Harbor - 29 feet
Atlantic Beach & Long Beach areas - 24 to 28 feet
South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay, & East Bay areas - 24 to 28 feet
Montauk Point is completely cut off from rest of south fork during a category 1 storm.
Much of the north and south forks are entirely under water during a category 3 hurricane.

[edit on 5/6/2005 by DJSpellBound]

I agree with you DJ........during the hurricanes last year the biggest problem was all the tree damage, and inland flooding. I happen to live on one of the only 3 rivers in the world that run north, The ST. Johns, and all that water from south of us, plus what we got, it was a mess. The trees were down every where, it tooks days just to get outta some neighborhoods. Not to mention being without electricity or water for weeks.

Now when I say without electricity I don't mean just houses. You try running outta food and finding out that no stores are open. If they are then you better have cash cause you can't use a credit card when theres no power/phone. No cash? Can't go to the ATM, No power. If the grocery runs outta food.......guess what......trucks can't get in to resupply the stores cause all the gas stations in most of the state are outta gas because of the mass evacuations. Oh and wait till you see the price gougers, you got a giant tree blocking your driveway and smashing your car.......no chainsaw.......price gougers bought em all before the storm and are no happy to sell you a $99 one for $750........same with just about everything.

If you lived on the beach you probably got off lucky, the inland flooding and tornados really messed alot of stuff up bad. I live near an airport that has 2 large flight schools, there are hundreds of small cessnas and stuff there, a tornado hit the airport during Charley and there were planes across the airport in trees. Alot of cattle ranches and horse farms here too.........you could see flat bed tracter trailers hauling away heaps of dead cattle......lovely.

I'd been through one hurricane before but gettin slammed by three in 2months.........that was hell. There are still alot of parks, beaches, hotels, businesses that aren't open yet......and it's been a year almost.

Well, also near Tampa myself...

Last season we had 3 storms come close enough to do damage, one even right over us (though luckily it was weak at the time).

Some may remember, as even got around to posting some pics of the local damage, and watched these storms like a hawk, hehe....

Lets just hope we don't have a repeat, huh? I was lucky, only lost power for around an hour or so. My brother and mother, just a couple blocks away, lost it for a week... Man, that would suck. Had them all over for dinner a lot, hehe...

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2005

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Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 55 65
Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 6 7
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 25 35
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 6 7
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 115 135

[edit on 6-5-2005 by Gazrok]