Will oil strike $380 a barrel by 2015?

Analysts Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi said in the next 10 years demand for oil will outstrip supply by around 8 million barrels per day!

"If one takes into account the level of previous oil shocks such as in the 1970's, we don't think a price level of $380 per barrel is out of the question," they said.

"One could thus envisage a scenario where there is a near seven-fold increase in crude oil prices, whereby, adding annual 2.5% inflation ... we arrive at a price of $380 per barrel by 2015."

source:
english.aljazeera

The demand for cruse oil will increase year by year - and even all the new oilfield projects will not be enough to satisfy the increasing demands of new and developing economies of the world, especially China.

Pretty big number od Dollars for a barrel of oil in the 2015 huh?

And if scientists know all that - where are the Alternatives to this natural resource? Alternatives to diesel engines?

Or will this World rely on fossil fuels until its really too late for everybody?

[edit on 23/4/05 by Souljah]

Oil/gas supplies are going downward while oil/gas demands are going upward.

It's WARtime!

by 2015 ww3 would have happenend(john titor)

Originally posted by the_oleneo
Oil/gas supplies are going downward while oil/gas demands are going upward.

It's WARtime!

Yes its "War Time" - and every war machine needs oil to run smoothly and without any problems of stopping in the middle of the desert without any gas!

Anyway the problem will soon appear when people realize that crude oil is not just used for gas. Most of cosmestics, plastics, computers, audio-video technology, automobile industry - are the side products coming from crude oil. Lets not forget that today we drink water from plastic bottles and throw them away, while there is Shortage of the natural reasource that they make this bottles of!

I don't think the price is likely to go that high, because at those prices you would have demand destruction so powerful the world economy itself would already have been thrown into a tremendous, crippling depression. If oil were $300+ a barrel, gasoline would cost $20-$30 per gallon, meaning it would cost hundreds of dollars simply to fill up your car.

Oil at $300 a barrel?

The pump price of gasoline today is three things: taxes, refining and transportation costs,
and crude costs.

1 barrel of oil produces about: (thanks to google)

19.5 gallons of gasoline
9 gallons of fuel oil
4 gallons of jet fuel
11 gallons of other stuff.

Assuming (very roughly) that the value of the gasoline is half the value of the crude oil, this means that at $50 a barrel, the crude oil cost of a gallon of gasoline is about $1.25.

That seems reasonable given average pump prices of $2.35 or so. Taxes and refining spreads will not increase proportionally to crude oil prices.
So with crude oil at $300 a barrel, i.e. 6 times what we have now, raw gasoline prices will be $7.50 a gallon for the crude, resulting in (guess) $9.50-$10 at the pump.

The more realistic spike of oil to $100, will probably result in pump prices of $3.25 or so.
Expect this within 4 years.
So, with oil at $50 a barrel (today price)

Lets face it, we (in the US) are getting taken by the oil refinery Company(s), the cost to produce oil, to gas has not changed. The price charged for that same gas has. The base cost per barrell to the refineries has not changed dramatically. As they have contract agreements for millions of barrells of oil over an extended period. What you see in price flux is the speculative trading on what the "future" cost of oil is going to be, resulting in the majors in placing big contract orders, which in turn, reduces the total number of barrells of oil for other traders to sell to other refineries, this generates the price increase as a speculation of the future demand. When OPEC sees that more barrell are sitting then being shipped, they discount the contract amounts in a effort for the major to move up their shipments and sometimes to take shipments on time instead of delaying them, when the forecasted consumption is more then the actual consumption. For the big majors it is better for them to hold off shipping more oil already waiting to be sent to the US and raise the local cost of gas then to bring in excess oil, which taps out their storage capabilities and prompts the oil/gas salemen to try and deliver more gas to the actual stations, this influx of extra gas and its immediate availability results in the price discount offered to each individual gas station change for purchasing more volume then what they actually expect to need. Such as when their tanks are only half empty and given the current consumption they could wait another week or two to get gas, if the majors are trying to push gas, then they can ask for an additional discount, this lowers the at the pump price.

The other factor is that state and local tax excises on the consumption of gas per gallon to support infrastructure repair and any other number of local propositions that may have been passed. This can add .38 or more cents per gallon of you money just going to the Goverment as a subsidy.

If the price per gallon gets way out of hand it is our Federal Goverments duty to not only investigate possible price fixing and price guaging but to set some fair standard in regards to margin gained on retail sales. There are many instances where a station my charge a much higher price per gallon based soley on having the lock on the local market. Such as a gas station in one stretch of Malibu that can and has charged over $3.00 per gallon, when driving about 10 miles away you can get gas for $2.40.

This excessive price "robbery" has resulted in huge profits for the oil Companies will misrepresenting to the American public the actual state of affairs in returns to the cost of gas.

wow just my luck i hit driving age and suddenly gas shoots up.I wanted so badly to get my 53-56 effie (F 100) and now i got to drive something that would embarass a prepubescent girl.