Facts are facts...Global warming

Want to talk about a correction? We have had a very warm and dry April. Coming in to today we have had relatively little rain and hour temps have averaged 8 degrees above normal per day. WARM. Well the correction came today in the form of severe weather. It was 79 degrees on the 20th. We have a freeze watch for Saturday night. It is supposed to get into the upper 20's with snow likely. Total accumulations of up to 2 inches. "WTF" comes to mind. Snow showers in April is one thing but talking accumulation at the end of April is nuts.

I once got snowed on on Canada Day. Okay, I was on top of a 7000 foot mountain, and it didn't stick, but still ... The computer simulation I saw predicted wildly fluctuating weather as the climate changes, with dramatic swings in both temp. and precip., with an overall trend to warmer days. The global average annual temperature is now .5 degrees Celsius higher than 20 years ago, which may not sound like much, but it really is a lot.
It's all good, if we cannot change our causative behaviours, then we will have them changed unwillingly. I have read those who feel we can control nature .... Now that is egotistical.
"We did not weave the web of life, but are just one strand within it. "
Chief Seattle
"We do not inherit the earth from our forebears, we borrow it from our children."
same
"The earth is not their brother, but their enemy, they conquer it and move on. They will devour everything and the earth will become a desert."
1844, same, Chief Seattle
What a wacky guy, huh?

While mankind is not the smartest when it comes to protecting the enviorment, to simplfy what is occuring in the global changes occuring and state that mankind is the predominate cause of it is a stretch in my opinion. There are natural cycles and events that dwarf anything messing up of the systems of the planet that humans do. Are deforestation and spewing out gases from the consumption of oil good things, NO!. To claim that they are the primary cause of global warming when the cycle of Earth's climate is probably at the end of a cold span is debatable at best. The Earth will adapt to these changes that are coming, make no mistake about that, without much help or hinderance from mankind as well. To think that we will be able to stop, change or delay a global climate change that is historically (in the broad sense) due or overdue to happen is wishful thinking. I think that Gaia Theory and Daisyworld simulations showing it are usefull to look at when debating this topic. Here's an overview of it:
en.wikipedia.org...
en.wikipedia.org...

Comments?

The part that alot of people don't understand and the part the computer models will have a really though time factoring in is how reactionary our atmosphere is. You see on a small scale every day how it reacts to heat and cold. Today was a tiny sample of how the atmosphere works. We have been very warm this month and a correction came. It came in the form of violent thunderstorms. But because of a shallow layer of cold air aloft the storms were worse than they really should have been. But regardless there was a correction. Thats what afternoon thunderstorms are. We are seeing this expand out on a global scale. Water temperatures are increasing. Surface level temperatures (for whatever reason are rising) and upper level temperatures are decreasing. You will see the kind of correction that took place today (and most days) take place on a much greater scale as the entire atmosphere attempts to balance itself back out. The natural tendency for warm air to rise. Likewise the tendency for cold air is to sink. You have two large air masses increasing in their respective directions (hot & cold) but they are trapped on the wrong side. Eventually the warm air will be too light and the cold air will be too heavy and they will flip and mix. I don't know if I really want to know what that would look like. It can't be people friendly.

hmm computer simulations "prove" the global warming therory do they? well how many years worth of hard data on temperatures and weather paterns did you have to use? a measily few hundred years i would have to guess. anything else is guesses and pure speculation. now if you had hard data for a couple thousand years your simulations might actualy mean something. ANY incorect data can seriously affect the outcome of such a simulation.

also i might remind people that a computer program can ONLY do exactly what it is told by the progamer. it can not make any judgement on it's own about how to use data that a programmer does not give it. add this to the fact that we do not have HARD data on anything over a few hundred years and that opens up quite a lot of opertunities for masive errors. a computer is a wonderfull tool but can not be relied on 100% as it is biased by the the very program it is running. if a program does not alow something, then that something can not occure in it. heck just look at the unexpected bugs that ocure in video games.

we realy do not have the nesisary information at hand to give us a conclusive arguement about what is happening now. perhaps we are afecting the climate a tiny bit. it is just as likely that as much as some would like to beleive, that they are in fact wrong. we have no DEFINATES just THEORIES. we do not have the requisit info spanning a few thousand years to make a comparison. all we have is guesses and speculation. and that does not make for good science. for propper reserch we would need much more solid info than we have access to.

the earth has been through "ice ages", and is therfore just as likely to have had "hot ages" as well. we have nothing to propperly gauge what is now going on against.

Well, earlier this week, it was awesome outside here in Chicago -- 70s (hit 86 one day!), sunny, etc. Then, 2 days ago, the weather turned to krump overnight. It went from 86 to 46 in just 18 hours! This is proof global warming isn't taking place. Grab those arasol cans, people! Release some freon into the air! I'm cold!

...Sorry, I've been in one of those moods today where, rather than discussing issues, I just make fun of them. Hopefully tomorrow I'll be better

Drogo,
Not sure if your post was in reply to mine, I don't claim that simulations show global warming. Reread my post, I think you have misread what I was trying to point out. The links I put up just refer to theories that ecosystems in general will adapt to the situation at hand and actually adjust the climate so as to provide an enviorment for the ecosystem to flourish. Life on Earth iteself may provide the cushion to prevent massive tempreature extremes. Simple but weird and still only a theory. The climate is changing, has always been changing and life on Earth has been changing to meet the changing conditons as well. To think that we as mankind are in control of planetary weather changes just shows how full of ourselves we are.

It may have been covered but computer models have an understood bias to them. They basically spit out what you tell it to spit out. You load a set of paramaters and plug in your data and it does the math. If you tell it 1 + 1 = 2 it will give you a 2 when you plug in 1 + 1. Of course that over simplifies it. You basically tell it that under certain conditions certain things will happen. You use a model like that because the calculations are so large and complex. But the path to the answers have already been loaded.

I also never said that simulations prove anything. They support it and are just one piece of evidence out of many that do so. Warming is a fact, and there is a cause ...... what is it? The official reason for the last ice age is total fiction, and is taught like it is fact. That, imho, is unethical. There are many easy ways to show that the current model universities support is implausible, and that much of it is easily proven wrong. The mammoths died from an major extinction level event around 9 500 BC, imho. There is abundant physical evidence to support that.