Election statistics question

Statistically formula question and bear in mind this election comes down those 7-8 battleground states and only 5-10 counties in those states

So if we have the number of registered voters per state and the number of those who already voted, along with the numbers of newly requested voter registrations for the state's populations, can't we come up with some decent election forecasting based on this and other statistical info?

for example here in Georgia Ive found a decent site for relatively updated population by county, can't we take the number of votes already and extrapolate approximately how many remain per county?

Is there a NON-MSM news site that has all this compiled?

Georgia Total Registered Voters: 7,484,310 some counties already have 60% voted

sos.ga.gov...

independentvoterproject.org...

originally posted by: putnam6
Statistically formula question and bear in mind this election comes down those 7-8 battleground states and only 5-10 counties in those states

This isn't exactly correct. It'll come down to the battleground states, but every county matters since it's winner-take-all in the electoral college for all those states. Winning in certain counties can be offset by losing big in other counties.



The answer to the rest of your post is no, because to do any kind of extrapolation you'd have to know how many people are actually going to turn out to vote. Voter turnout percentage is unpredictable.

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: putnam6
Statistically formula question and bear in mind this election comes down those 7-8 battleground states and only 5-10 counties in those states

This isn't exactly correct. It'll come down to the battleground states, but every county matters since it's winner-take-all in the electoral college for all those states. Winning in certain counties can be offset by losing big in other counties.


The answer to the rest of your post is no, because to do any kind of extrapolation you'd have to know how many people are actually going to turn out to vote. Voter turnout percentage is unpredictable.

Well, you can be dismissive, but respectfully, in 2020 Georgia came down to the 7-8 greater metro Atlanta counties, where 2 counties flipped to blue and the rest had a huge turnout.

While smaller counties can get 70%-80% turn out that is unheard of in metro counties.

It would take a massive shift in the rural counties to make a difference, and in Georgia atleast rural counties are fairly cut and dried they are red or blue

We have a ceiling of registered voters and in Georgia, by county, I have the numbers of those who already voted by county

We know Fulton County had a record turnout in 2020, no way it will increase that by more than 10% in 2024 Nationally the historic increase in 2020 was just 7 percent.



For perspective Fulton Georgia it's most populous county has almost 50,000 fewer voters registered in 2024 than in 2020 Im sure I can find the increase from 2016 to 2020 for the county

Georgia was up 8.3% from 2016 to 2020. Fulton County has a little over 350,000 remaining registered voters in total

so with some math and some extrapolation, there's the ceiling

a reply to: putnam6

Answering a yes/no question with "no" isn't being dismissive.

You wanted to know if it could be done. I said no. Now you're certain it can be done, which seems strange why you had to ask in the first place.

If you can predict what the vote totals will be in Georgia on Tuesday, please, by all means, tell us.