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Guayana Esequiba (Spanish pronunciation: [ɡwaˈʝana eseˈkiβa] ⓘ), sometimes also called Esequibo or Essequibo, is a disputed territory of 159,500 km2 (61,600 sq mi) west of the Essequibo River that is administered and controlled by Guyana but claimed by Venezuela.[1][2] The boundary dispute was inherited from the colonial powers (Spain in the case of Venezuela, and the Netherlands and the United Kingdom in the case of Guyana) and has been complicated by the independence of Guyana from the United Kingdom in 1966. The dispute is closely connected to the territorial waters dispute, with Venezuela claiming almost all territorial waters of Guyana, including all processed and potential oilfields.
In a move that has prompted many to wonder which is the bigger banana republic, Venezuela or the US, Joe Biden's new BFF, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro (who has promised to export a few barrels of oil to the US president - now that draining the SPR is no longer an option - to keep gas prices low ahead of the 2024 presidential election in exchange for sanction relaxation and defacto recognition by the White House that Maduro is the dictatorially "democratically" elected president of Venezuela, making a mockery of a decade of Western virtue-signaling sanctions), on Sunday Caracas is set to hold a referendum among Venezuelans on annexing (i.e., invading and taking over) a whopping 160,000 sq km of extremely oil-rich land in neighbouring Guyana.
Why now? Why only now when Caracas has for more than 200 years claimed rights over Essequibo, a vast swath of the territory Guyana? Simple: because as we said several days ago, it was only a few months ago that Maduro realized he has leverage over the US president of the "most powerful nation in the world" and get away with anything... even invading a sovereign nation.
Of course, (oil rich but extraction poor) Venezuela's heightened interest at this expanse of Amazon jungle springs in part from its resource riches, including offshore oil deposits that have since 2019 made Guyana the world’s fastest-growing economy. Another reason lies closer to home for Venezuela’s strongman leader Nicolás Maduro: elections next year. But at the end of the day, had Biden not signed a smoky back-room deal with Maduro, admitting he needs the dictator's oil in exchange for what appears to be a diplomatic blank check, none of this would have happened. Instead, we are now facing actual war between two nations which between them have some of the largest oil deposits in the world.
As the FT notes, the potential for Venezuela, an ally of Russia, to follow the referendum with an incursion into western-leaning Guyana has raised concerns in the region. Brazil this week said it had increased the military presence in its northern areas, which border both countries.
“On Sunday December 3, we will respond to the provocations of Exxon, the US Southern Command, and the president of Guyana with a people’s vote,” Maduro said during a broadcast of his weekly television program on November 20.
Guyana correctly fears that the referendum is be a pretext for a land grab, and has appealed to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to halt the referendum — a move that Caracas has rejected, though its claim to the land is largely internationally unrecognised.