originally posted by: phansett
Hello, all. Just wandering if there was any intelligent and insightful thoughts on the balloon, car-shape, cylinder… activity and the downing of
these recently. Sure it’s been discussed elsewhere in ATS, but this particular forum is one I appreciate as it’s less political and emotional.
Think this activity is common, but for some reason there is no longer allowance, or did objects always get shot down at this frequency, just not
reported? Or… you know… alien invasion.
Thanks!
First, I am a professional aerospace engineer; I design lighter-than-air craft, rotorcraft, fixed wing aircraft, rockets, and spacecraft for a living.
Second, I am a UFO witness; I’ve seen about 4 good ones in my life. So, I’m perfectly happy to conclude that a sighting is or is not
conventional, based on the evidence.
The first question to ask about a mysterious sighting like these small cylindrical craft is are they are doing anything or behaving in a way that
can’t be explained by conventional aerospace engineering? So far, I haven’t heard about anything that would lead to that conclusion.
One of the first things that stood out to me is that the first object that was shot down near Prudhoe Bay had been tracked continuously for 24 hours
(including overnight) at approximately the same altitude before it was shot down. Does that mean it was an unconventional craft? It depends on how
fast it was moving. If it was moving at basically the local wind speed (plus or minus a little bit), then no, it was not a UFO, it could have been
just a balloon. Based on everything I’ve heard, I don’t know which of those cases is true. If it was a balloon, it would have been a particular
kind of balloon known as a constant-volume balloon—sometimes also known as a super pressure balloon. This kind of balloon has a skin that doesn’t
expand, so it will rise up to an altitude where the weight of the balloon and all its contents exactly equals the weight of the air it displaces and
then it will neither rise nor descend from that altitude unless and until it looses lift gas (usually Helium) by leakage through the skin. The Mylar
balloons that you can buy as party gifts, etc. are examples of constant-volume balloons. They behave entirely differently than weather balloons,
which will ascend continuously—getting bigger all the time—until they pop. That usually takes a couple of hours and altitudes above 60,000 ft.
So, if these small objects are balloons, then they are constant-volume balloons designed to float at about 40,000 ft. The fact that they were
described as shiny, aluminum colored is consistent with them being made out of metalized Mylar or equivalent.
They were described as being about the size of a small automobile—a VW Beetle, specifically. I did some order-of-magnitude calculations to figure
out how much volume that is and how much lift such a balloon would have at 40,000 ft if it were filled with Helium. The answer is that it would lift
no more than about 10-15 pounds. That’s enough for a small payload consisting of solar arrays, batteries, and electronics.
So far, there’s nothing I’ve heard in the MSM that would require the conclusion that these were anything other than small spy balloons.
However, the proof will be in whatever is recovered from the crash sites. If the total amount of material recovered from an individual crash is
significantly greater than 10-15 pounds, then the object was not lighter-than-air, and we would need to explain how it was able to stay aloft for at
least 24 hours with no visible means of support.
I’m still keeping an open mind, but so far there’s nothing that screams “unconventional”.