Likelihood Russia invades a Swedish/Finnish island to prevent joining NATO

a reply to: DarthTrader

You don't think the Fins have a modern military weapons? Tanks? Aircraft? Ships?

Considering what they have shown in Ukraine, including some of their elite units gets wrecked, I would lay odds that finland and sweden would thump them.

Mainly because they (russia) cannot divert to much in the way of supplies, (and their logistics sucks), they have a manpower problem and I am not sure they can spare the bodies to open another front of any size elsewhere.

originally posted by: Creep Thumper
Russia can barely handle Ukraine. I seriously doubt they're looking for another front.

Technically it's a Ukraine backed by 9 NATO nations including America with more than $100,000,000,0000 in aid. Yet Ukraine is still asking for more and unable to push out the invaders.

But you are right Russia doesn't have the forces to go after Sweden or Finland even if they wanted to.

a reply to: Irishhaf

Considering what they have shown in Ukraine, including some of their elite units gets wrecked, I would lay odds that finland and sweden would thump them.

The Fins have a well trained and equipped military with the largest amount of citizens saying they’d fight for their country of any European nation.

No way Russia tries the Chinese BS of the 7 vs 9 dash line imperialism rouse. But it IS Putin, and he IS losing his marbles so never say never. The Fins/Region would be ZERO tolerance on any form of Russian aggression at this point, and don't think for a minute NATO --or not, that Sweden and Norway [and yes, add the Danes!] would not back them in a fight against the drunken old belligerent bear from the East. It would be a stupid move that even a worn-out Muppet like Putin wouldn't even try. Better to dig his heels in on the minuscule Ukraine gains and hope for the best there.

a reply to: DarthTrader


This is how Sweden would help Finland when Russia attacks - the commander tells Iltalehte about the secret plans

Swedish-Finnish cooperation.
United States, Germany and France , United Kingdom pledging military support for Finland.
The UK Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) which both Finland and Sweden are members

STT: Germany, France, US pledge military support for Finland during Nato process

Haha

HOORAH!

a reply to: DarthTrader

supported by NATO unlike Iraq and Afghanistan which destroyed the US with Kitchen utensils and spare pipes from oil fields while making artillery in their basements.

Oh please ....what a bunch of bullsh1t from someone who obviously wanst there, the ONLY reason we we were at a stalemate at any time was because they tied our hands lol period.

Had we been allowed to do what we're suppose to do things would have turned out drastically different

I should know I spent most of my 20s and late teens there and Iraq

Good christ the accounts are all the same and tiring at that

Clearly the only military experience they have are call of duty war maps and war movies

What a joke

Oh and when it comes to "the island" Europe would just level them from the air. IF they made it that far ..... it's not like they wouldn't see them coming

a reply to: DarthTrader

How and why would russians do it ? It is a Winter, what is the point? Gulf of Bothnia is full of ice in winter time and sea traffic needs icebreakers to get routes open. Will Russia bring icebreakers with them ? Russians would be easy targets in both land and sea.

a reply to: DarthTrader

there are not many islands in baltic sea .. islands are at then gulf of bothnia.

the fins and swedes are part of the JEF and a directs attack pulls in the UK which in turn pulls in NATO.. the nato application is the next step after joining the JEF..

all the over lapping alliances makes it difficult for Russia to do anything and not trigger various mutual defence pacts that escalate all the way to NATO level..

the key is that while NATO = slow, ponder and easier to break without bureaucratic unity... The smaller defence pacts are quicker to act.. and that is what Russia faces right now..

so while NATO bickers the others pact's kick in which is what makes it difficult for Russia to do anything without tripping itself up.

and if the past is anything to go by the only route left to Russia is to arm & fund terror groups in those countries it wants to destabilise...

Is the OP satire?

Russia is living in dream-land if they really believe that attacking Sweden or Finland will work out. Both countries are capable of local military superiority. Russia struggle to drive down a motorway in Ukraine without blowing up, so not sure how they will manage in the Baltic Sea with angry Swedes or Fins.

originally posted by: grey580
a reply to: DarthTrader

The last time Russia tried to invade Finland it didn't go well for them.

It did not go well for modern ukrainians serving in division 44, as they were steamrolled in the battle of raate road either.

But yeah Finland won, its not like we lost access and rights to the oilfields in the barents sea, oh wait we did.

Damn.. we could be like Norway.. well at least we got alcoholism.

I think they won't bother they got countries like Turkey/Hungary and Croatia that won't let them join for now.
and the longer this war takes the more normal people will suffer in other countries and more countries will stop supporting this whole madness.

Finland won't join without Sweden anyways, they said it several times already.
if they would join they would join it together with Sweden ,Here you can read about it

a reply to: Dizle81

both are already part of a nuclear armed alliance that'd also trigger NATO response..

the JEF includes..UK, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway.

they can respond as one force far quicker than NATO but as 8 are NATO members it means they can respond and leave NATO to decide what it wants to do..

the UK also has other defence pacts, mutual defence with Poland and a combined joint force with France.. the UK & US also have defence pact..

these defence pacts really really complicate politics, we saw this with Reagan and thatcher the Reagan admin wanted the USA to appear neutral to south American countries over the Falkland's so was considering giving Argentina the location of the UKs carriers to strike to appease them, but on the other hand the defence pacts meant the US navy was ready to loan the UK the USS Iwo Jima if a UK carrier was sunk.. which would sink any pretence of neutrality.

when you see the complexities its understandable how WW2 rolled the way it did.. and why we have a similar situation today.. at this point it would be beneficial to Russia and the USA if Sweden and Finland where in a big bureaucratic block rather than the smaller alliances they are..