What Would An American Civil War Look Like In 2024/25

a reply to: Blue_Jay33

It would look like any other Civil War , destructive and pointless.

originally posted by: network dude
If all the democrat wore blue shirts and the republicans wore red, I think we could make it work. But if that doesn't happen, it's going to be difficult to know who to kill. Perhaps you could have people make signs?

Not really. The cities are mostly Democrat. The rural towns not. IN the country you could go around with a list of voters. democrats registered to vote and their names and addresses are easily found.

Most of the fighting will be between rebel military forces and the people against the democrat leaning military people.
Most democrats will surrender and beg for mercy. They will be deported to other countries or live as second class citizens.

Seeing california,NY,and chicago, burning would be glorious.

an interesting article on the topic from the British liberal media outlet unherd and written by a Swede.

Would America survive a civil war

worth a thought

extract

It would be rural vs urban. We already have counties in some areas proposing secession from major metro areas. Most states are solidly red outside of the major cities.

a reply to: joemoe

It could throw up some very unlikely alliances think the Americans where buying weapons from Muslims and the Soviet union to blow up their supposed allies out shopping or having a burger in London.

some of the repercussions on that took a long time to come full circle.. The notable one was Gadhafi supporting the US backed groups in northern Ireland after the US tried to kill him but got one of his kids instead, so it was easier for him to support us groups attacking a us ally,,, that kind of sheering force was evident in how the Libyan conflict played out and why Obama pointed fingers at London for his failures but really I see it as a combination of historic issues..

so in terms of a similar situation evolving in the USA you could have a whole load of unlikely allies and enemies working to do as much damage to the USA as possible. for some very different reasons..

honestly it not worth thinking about as it could make a sane person paranoid.. but that's how bad it could get..

a reply to: network dude

Here is how you know, because the red and blue hats, uniforms, bandanas type of things are not going to happen.

Do they look like local neighbors? The division will be rural vs urban. Suburbia will be a no man’s land. The hard urbanites will consider it conservative, the soccer moms will make it too liberal.

The urbans will push outward for food, water and other reassure because in the city, they have about 3-7 days worth once the grid (functioning modern society) shuts down. Suburbia might have gardens or other boutique “prepper things” in their favor. Rural areas will just defend. And by that I mean zero tolerance with zero # given about safe spaces or other claptrap.

So is it Farmer John from church with a 12 gauge? Betty with her box of Mommy Juice by Franzia and Ruger LCP? Or Leroy with a used TV and a Glock?

originally posted by: beyondknowledge
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Yes, and the cities won't last long. They would run out of food very quickly.

Cities have skyscrapers.

Skyscrapers can be used as "high ground".

In any ground-based battle, the side controlling the high ground has the strategic advantage.


Cities also have greater access to secure, temperature-controlled food, water, and equipment storage facilities; as made necessary by the fact that they are designed to support, on a daily basis, far higher population densities.


Your statement lacks strategic insight.

a reply to: Blue_Jay33

First of all, I can tell you this is purely fantasy and would never happen. I could list all of the reasons why but I'd be wasting my time and beating a dead horse.

It's nice to know that my fellow citizens fantasize about killing me though.

originally posted by: Blue_Jay33
So this topic has come up numerous times, Bill Mayer says we are already in a cold civil war.
Basically it's gotten to the point at least for some people that it's a "Game of Thrones" motto "You either win or you die"
This is really sad, but what would it look like.

It would not be state against state like last time at least not at the start, but rather red counties against blue counties, pretty much everybody would essentially be behind enemy lines. Those with guns would perhaps launch a purge of people around them that they politically disagree with.
You might have police forces with mini-civil wars as they purge out their own people with minority opinions to gain absolute control.
So for example in a blue state and county 75% are democrats they take out the 25% of the force that they know supported Trump, putting them in 100% control. The same thing happens in Red counties and States. Local militia would usually swing right, which mean they also get into it with locals and even police that are the left. So each State would end up with all these purges until a side triumphed, and the state might declare independence or join a group of other states that think the same way and had finished their purges.
America would break apart, if some States had strong armies that never had mass casualties they might even try to liberate a state still fighting it out.

Where would the military be in all this, individual commanders would take charge, they might out rightly kill soldiers people they felt are traitors within their own ranks. Both sides could claim that they took an oath to fight domestic enemies of the state, and this perspective could be used by both sides. As they both equally claim the other side is a domestic enemy their oath is referring to.
There is another scenario too that see's police that vote right in blue states with very tight guns controls, have all the guns and easily purge and take over the area basically unopposed.

I guess the question is what could trigger such a horrible series of events?
What could ignite the whole country to start killing each other, what would be the collective domino?
I can't answer that, it may never happen, the above is conjecture and supposition on how I think a country wide modern civil war might progress.
I actually think starting it would actually be very hard.

What do think would be happening 2 weeks into a full scale country wide modern American civil war?

It wouldn't be a war, but a massacre.

United states military vs 2000 armed patriots (5000 on the extremely optimistic side) Not enough to be dangerous, just enough to send a message.

Roughly 800 dead, up to a quarter of the assembled body at max. The majority surrender on condition of clemency, nationwide manhunt for "accessories". Message delivered.

Marshal law implemented.

The age of McCarthyism but MAGA instead of communists.

Duration: 15-20 years, our kids would be the deciding factor in resuming defcon 4 protocols but republicans would be heavily coerced to compromise via DeMAGAcrat restructuring aka slightly left of center goals that are deemed "federally compliant"

(to clarify, everything above is 100% speculation derived from minimal data and overactive imagination, I'm not psychic or pretending to be)

a reply to: Walrus72

Only possible way is if they took out the grid, stopped supply chains and people had to make up reasons to kill each other out of starvation.

I very much suspect that's the plan. I am expecting a collapse of the grid by way of a hacking sooner than later. You only have about 4 or maybe 5 grid systems in the US. The Eastern Coast/New England grid system would probably be the first target followed by the West Coast system. After that it's anyone's guess.

It's coming, (blame the Russians), it's only a matter of time. The Rona was a test.

originally posted by: Mantiss2021

originally posted by: beyondknowledge
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Yes, and the cities won't last long. They would run out of food very quickly.

Cities have skyscrapers.

Skyscrapers can be used as "high ground".

In any ground-based battle, the side controlling the high ground has the strategic advantage.


Cities also have greater access to secure, temperature-controlled food, water, and equipment storage facilities; as made necessary by the fact that they are designed to support, on a daily basis, far higher population densities.


Your statement lacks strategic insight.

There is less than 3 days of food in grocery stores. Food doesn't come from urban areas. All deliveries of food and other supplies would quickly stop or be severely limited to major cities. Most of the residents would be stuck. Law and order in cities would breakdown very quickly. Crime would run rampant. Basically, cities would collapse under their own weight.

Rural folks would just have to sit back and watch. Just prevent and control access to and from cities.

Interesting responses, and I agree with much of what has been said, a civil war with an American military in full command of all it's forces would never happen, it would be impossible, as forces would be available to quell any outbreak.

But what happened during the first Civil war, the military's fractured largely by state lines.
How did all the southern and northern soldiers, particularly active officers disengage from the active federal military, from wherever they were posted too and travel back to their perspective home states?

Imagine just three rogue American divisions lead by officers that are respected, and them saying to all Americans now is your chance, join us. You know that call to arms would be answered by thousands, also some other soldiers might decide to leave their units and join. One submarine with nukes and it's crew, there was a TV show on that one. Maybe one aircraft carrier and it's crew. A squadron of F22. Other American soldiers refusing to fight there fellow soldiers.

And then there is the scenario that I have seen in some TV series, American radicals make the choice to cut the head off in one motion by nuking the capital at the State of the Union event, killing the elite ruling class and all its support systems, triggering the civil war and States like Texas and Florida declaring immediate independence.

So I am going to answer my own question as what would actually cause an American civil war, Washington DC nuked by American Revolutionaries , ALL of Congress, Senate, President and his cabinet with he supreme court, killed and all the support networks wiped out.
A dozen or so independent commanders take American military's forces and launch an attack on anything left of the system that might replenish the old government. After 3 weeks of fighting the UN sends troops in, this solidifies American forces to fight invaders. Some flee to Canada, others thousands are killed, in a purge type warfare. 3 months later the country has broken apart with the biggest states having the smaller states rallying around the ones they most aligned with.
Some states break up with the red counties forming new states aligned with other red states, and they are powerless to stop it. America is no longer a super power, but individual states control bases, nukes and airfields within it's borders. Navy ships may become loyal to the coastal state port the captain wants to support breaking up the navy.

a reply to: Blue_Jay33

I imagine the military may sit something like this out; it would likely be rural vs. urban for the most part. The military would be keeping an eye on other countries that may try and take advantage of a perceived weakened state. It wouldn't be short and sweet; it would be long and painful for all sides. We would also likely end up far worse than where we are now.

a reply to: nickyw

This would seem more likely simply because these other countries have been having more political problems on a more significant scale for longer than the US. However, it could be the hubris of the US that we fall hard and fast. Or these other nations could panic over something happening in the US and trigger something more.

I think it would be difficult fighting while holding down a full time job. Most people don't have enough vacation time to leave for weeks or months at a time to go fight.

originally posted by: Mantiss2021

originally posted by: beyondknowledge
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Yes, and the cities won't last long. They would run out of food very quickly.

Cities have skyscrapers. Skyscrapers can be used as "high ground".In any ground-based battle, the side controlling the high ground has the strategic advantage.

The problem is that they are in cities. If your opponents stay out of the cities, your "high ground" is of little value.

Cities also have greater access to secure, temperature-controlled food, water, and equipment storage facilities; as made necessary by the fact that they are designed to support, on a daily basis, far higher population densities.

All of which would be gone in less than a week by those same "higher population densities." Also please note that the electricity that powers cities is not generated within those same cities.

Your statement lacks strategic insight.

a reply to: Mantiss2021

You have some good strategic points, but I would add that most cities do not control the source of their electricity to the degree that would be needed to keep those electrified luxuries / keep their 'lights on'.

Electricity generation is the Achilles heel of urban life. You need fuel, power plants, power lines, etc., which are all vulnerable to sabotage.

Don't worry, the folks outside cities won't have power either. Life would pretty much suck for everyone -- all inclusive.

Many of us would be cold, hungry, hunkering down in our basements, in the dark, wearing dirty clothes ... just waiting it out.

The best civil war is the one that can be avoided....

originally posted by: Mantiss2021

originally posted by: beyondknowledge
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Yes, and the cities won't last long. They would run out of food very quickly.

Cities have skyscrapers.

Skyscrapers can be used as "high ground".

In any ground-based battle, the side controlling the high ground has the strategic advantage.


Cities also have greater access to secure, temperature-controlled food, water, and equipment storage facilities; as made necessary by the fact that they are designed to support, on a daily basis, far higher population densities.


Your statement lacks strategic insight.

Cities lack the ability to pump water up into those highrises and cool that stored food with no electricity. No need to go into the area of the tall buildings. They will come out when they are thirsty.

Your strategic thinking is not accurate for an urban environment for more than a couple of days.

It would look a lot better if people stopped listening to politicians all together.

And I mean altogether not just listening to them less but complete cold turkey, then the tabloids, bloggers and influencers would lose their hold on click bait news and ultimately their poison

There will never be an honest politician EVER but if the media then saw a decline in sales/views on such articles we might (even though I have my own doubts) get more articles about human endeavour and actual achievements we can be proud of as a collective species

We should all know the phrase by now

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The current level of Tribalisum will push individual or small teams of people to commit increasing acts of terrorism.

The increase level of violence, real or perceived, will force counties to increase their security. Putting up fences, road blocks and barricades. At first it will seem like a measured response to the increased violence and become a normal way of life for most in the US.

Opportunists, politicians and community leaders will start to amass power from within the fenced communities. Eventually they will begin to force the disgruntled and problematic neighbors to leave. This will creat a siloed effect where each fenced community will have its own set of norms and allowed propaganda.

Some communities will form partnerships with each other to increase saftry and power. Some communities will be adversely towards each other based on the differing norms and propaganda they subscribe to and their differing resources.

The acts of individual terrorism that fuled the balkanization of the communities will slowly turn into community sponsored acts of terrorism. Communities will begin to fight each other for resources and status. At first it will be little things like graffiti; than justifiable reprisals; than communities will be in sporadic but open warfare.

The government will try to police the activity but its own corruption will just make them part of the problem and not the solution. The police and military will be forced to fall back to trying to keep common areas and highways free from violence but wont be able to go into the communities.

Once critical mass is hit all communities will be at war with each other.