Armenia dumping Russia CSTO is collapsing

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: TritonTaranis

How long can Russia's influence over central Asia decline before there is a coup attempt against Putin? People seeking to recreate the Russian Empire are unlikely to tolerate current circumstances. Alternatively, the Russian Nazi ideologues demand the use of weapons of mass destruction against Ukraine and Armenia.

I'd certainly be worried about that if I were russia, but I'd be a whole lot more worried about china.

Especially now that russia just demonstrated to ccp that they could actually conquer most of russia pretty quickly if they're willing to absorb the human and financial (US sanctions) costs for doing so.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: TritonTaranis

How long can Russia's influence over central Asia decline before there is a coup attempt against Putin? People seeking to recreate the Russian Empire are unlikely to tolerate current circumstances. Alternatively, the Russian Nazi ideologues demand the use of weapons of mass destruction against Ukraine and Armenia.

I wonder how long before it is "game on" with those countries obliterating any trace of Russian influence within their borders (and possibly beyond).

Also notable how China told Russia "hands off" regarding Kazakhstan.

Russia's infatuation with Putin may end with a huge loss of territory.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Agreed

But just so nobody gets unintentionally triggered, I don't think you are saying that anyone is 'hoping' this happens to russia, you are 'warning' that this may be an eventual inevitable result of what russia is doing to Ukraine.

And I agree.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

IMO China remains the wildcard in global security. Beyond Russia's shrinking influence in Central Asia, Putin gifted China additional leverage over Russia. Moreover, Putin's doomed gambit concerning withholding oil and gas exports to European countries leaves Russia vulnerable to China's economic and political demands.

Also, Chinese military planners will note how Russia's war in Ukraine fares. If Putin's regime is endangered or Russia-China relations sour, China might invade Siberia under the guise of liberation.

a reply to: xpert11
China is most definitely a bigger threat than Russia, always has been. They have been 'infiltrating' almost every country in the world since the Silk Road in 130BC!
Here we were thinking Russia plays the 'long-game' of chess while all the while the 'red dragon' has been silently and innocuously 'invading' every single aspect of daily life since the first industrial revolution in the very early 1700's.
There is a HUGE difference between Russian 'communism' and Chinese 'communism'.
Rainbows
Jane

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

Yeah, I don't "hope on" anyone's destruction. That scenario would be a nightmare and not just for Russia.

Cheers

a reply to: xpert11

A historical rhyme I find interesting is that China has the same choice as the Empire of Japan (remember that bunch of good-timing Samurai ? ) did in the 1940s.

China, like Japan, can expand into the Pacific (challenging the presence of the West there); or, China can expand into Siberia at Russia's expense.

In 1941, Japan struck into the Pacific, not least because the Red Army whipped them in at least two significant engagements. They learned respect for the Soviet art of war.

Today, things look different. Putin has embarked upon a massive gamble that has made his military look disorganized. China just might be tempted to avoid direct conflict with the West and seize resource-rich areas of Siberia.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Rather than risk going off-topic, I have sent you a PM.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Rather than risk going off-topic, I have sent you a PM.

@xpert11, reply sent.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

Yeah, I don't "hope on" anyone's destruction. That scenario would be a nightmare and not just for Russia.

Cheers

I know you don't, it's the only reason I felt comfortable adding that to your post until you returned.