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FOOD, ENERGY, WATER AND THE CLIMATE: A PERFECT STORM OF
GLOBAL EVENTS?
By John Beddington CMG FRS
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
Government Office for Science
Kingsgate House
66-74 Victoria Street
London
SW1E 6SW
[email protected]
SUMMARY
There is an intrinsic link between the challenge we face to ensure food security
through the 21st century and other global issues, most notably climate change,
population growth and the need to sustainably manage the world’s rapidly growing
demand for energy and water. It is predicted that by 2030 the world will need to
produce 50 per cent more food and energy, together with 30 per cent more available
fresh water, whilst mitigating and adapting to climate change. This threatens to
create a ‘perfect storm’ of global events.
Science and technology can make a major contribution, by providing practical
solutions. Securing this contribution requires that high priority be attached both to
research and to facilitating the real world deployment of existing and emergent
technologies. On food, we need a new, “greener revolution”. Techniques and
technologies from many disciplines, ranging from biotechnology and engineering to
newer fields such as nanotechnology, will be needed. On water, managing and
balancing supply and demand for water across sectors requires a range of policy
and technological solutions. Meeting the demand for energy, while mitigating and
adapting to climate change, will require a mix of behavioural change and
technological solutions.
THE DRIVERS BEHIND THE PERFECT STORM SCENARIO
Background
After 20 years of low food commodity prices, the price shock of 2007/08 brought
agriculture, food production and food security sharply back into the limelight. Wheat
and maize prices peaked at around triple their early 2005 levels, with an even higher
peak in rice prices (IMF 2008). High commodity prices quickly fed through into
increased costs to consumers in developed and developing countries alike (FAO
2008), escalating to civil unrest in some, ranging from strikes in Italy to riots in Haiti.
Whilst food prices have now stabilised we should avoid being complacent (current
stocks of major cereals are at a 40 year low, which implies continued uncertainty).
The predicted increase in demand for food, energy and water in the next 20 years,
driven by the growing population coming out of poverty will ultimately put pressure
on food prices. This is described below.
Population increase and urbanisation
Global population is set to increase to around 9 billion by mid-century, rising at a rate
of 6 million people per month, with Africa’s population alone projected to double from
1 billion to 2 billion (UNPD 2006) during this period. This continued population
increase combines with other transformational change, particularly in the developing
world as people move from rural livelihoods to cities, cities that will need to be
serviced with food, water and energy. Half the world’s population now live in cities, a
figure projected to rise to 60% by 2030 (UNPD 2007). It is estimated that there will
be 29 cities with greater than 10 million inhabitants in 2025, up from 19 today. Half of
these new ‘megacities’ will be in Asia.
Economic changes
Population increase will be coupled to increasing prosperity. Economic advances
projected for the developing world will help lift millions from poverty, but in other
respects will add to the challenges. As incomes rise in developing and middle
income countries, people eat more meat and dairy products, causing a rapid growth
in demand for agricultural commodities to feed livestock. Strong growth in demand
over the past few decades has been driven particularly by rising consumption in
China and Brazil, and the future trend is likely to be strongly influenced also by the
extent of income growth in India and sub-Saharan Africa, where per capita meat
consumption is still low (FAO 2003).
Rising demand for food, energy, water and land
The FAO projects total crop and livestock demand and production will rise by around
40% between 2008 and 2030, i.e. a yearly increase of 1.5% (Figure 1). However,
this overall figure conceals the larger increase in meat demand (FAO 2006, UNPD
2006). The World Bank predicts a 50% rise in cereals demand compared with an
85% increase for meat between 2000 and 2030 (World Bank 2008). Other
assessments predict a doubling of meat demand by 2050 (Beintema 2008). The
overall projected rate of demand growth is lower than in previous decades (FAO
2006, IPCC 2007), but must be met within the greater constraints on land, water and
energy use outlined below.
Figure 1: Predicted world food requirements up until 2050
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
3500.00
4000.00
4500.00
1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2030 2050
Million Tonnes of food
Milk and dairy (excl butter)
Meat (carcass weight)
Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products
Pulses
Sugar
Roots and tubers
Cereals, food
The predicted increases in food demand are predominantly through meat and dairy products. (UNPD
2006 and FAO 2006)
Energy demand is projected to increase by 45% between 2006 and 2030, based on
the IEA’s reference scenario (IEA 2008). Biofuels for transport and biomass for heat
and electricity will be used to meet some of this demand, leading to greater
competition for land and crops between energy and food markets (Mitchell 2008).
The majority of this energy demand rise is predicted taking place in the non-OECD,
notably China and India, Proportionally, through the use of coal (Figure 2)
Figure 2: World primary energy demand by region
Energy demand in non-OECD is now greater than the OECD, predominantly in China and India
(IEA 2008)
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Today, 1.2 billion people live in areas already affected by water scarcity, and this
figure is projected to increase as global water demand rises (IWMI 2007). Water
demand is a function of population, incomes, diets and the extent of irrigated
agriculture, leading to a wide range of projections into the 2020s and 2050s (IWMI
2007, Shen 2008, Shiklomanov 2000). It has been estimated, based on mid-range
population scenarios, that demand for water for agriculture could rise by over 30% by
2030, while modelling based on the IPCC’s SRES scenarios suggests that total
global water demand will rise by 35–60% between 2000 and 2025 (Chatres 2008,
Shen 2008). Figure 3 shows the predicted global water withdrawal levels between
1995 and 2025.
Figure 3: Predicted water scarcity and stress in 2025
Water withdrawal is defined as the loss of water for some use by humans. (UNEP 2008)
Agriculture is by far the largest user of water world-wide, at around 70% of total
supplies (FAO 2007). The agricultural sector will increasingly need to compete with
the world’s growing cities for water. As a result, it is unlikely that water will remain a
‘free’ commodity in the future
It seems inevitable that demand for land will progressively increase, both for food
production and linked to the urbanisation and energy trends noted above (IWMI
2007). This growing competition and concern can be illustrated by increased
purchases of land in the developing world by some countries with hot and dry
climates, such as Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia and China. Multinational companies are
also investing in agricultural land.
The challenge for global agriculture is to grow more food on not much more
land,