New variant from Tanzania, possible explinatiom for February 'mystery illness'?

Last night I happened to read an older article referencing an illness that was spotted in Tanzania. A 'mystery illness', as it was called at the time, had reportedly shown up in a 'single village' and affected about 50 people. Obviously covid was the logical thought(to anyone paying attention and living in reality anyways), especially when one takes into account their then leader was a covid-denier who suggested that 3 days of prayer early on had rid the country of the virus. No need for masks or vaccines, god fixed it. He died just a few weeks later, of a mysterious illness that they allege caused a heart attack.

Anyone paying attention will also not that sarscov2 is NOT a simple/normal respritory virus and infact is more than often a 'clotting' virus in the sense that heart attacks, strokes, and worse clotting than any other known medical condition- their leaders pretty obviously died from covid. Though no doubt covid-deniers are gonna do what they do best....deny.

Moving on- so we have all of this going on apparently in Februrary of this year.

This is from the toronto sun , Though it was reported through multiple others at the time.
Mystery illness in Tanzania leaves patients vomiting blood

A mystery illness that causes people to vomit blood has killed 15 people in Tanzania and hospitalized more than 50 others.

The New York Post reported that the illness killed its mostly male patients within hours of them developing symptoms. The illness is being reported in the southern Mbeya region of the country, according to the U.K. Sun.

The detail that caught my eye was the vomiting blood. Obviously this is not currently a wideranging symptom with covid, thougu in early January there were reports om Weibo and others of this being a symptom, however as we learned more it never really came up again so i personaly assumed it was just the fear/hype and confusiom at the time. Given what we know about tue virus' ability to affect clotting, i dont think its unreasonable to assume its possible... But to my knowledge has never been documented.


There wouod have to be some serious changes to the genome, which definitely would be noticed thanks to people loke NextStrain or definitely wouod catch changes that major.


Ok. Now ive caught anyone interested up to where my thougut process was whem I opened my notifications this morning. On the link to a different article, I read the headline New Tanzanian Variant Detected In Angola From An Entirely New Branch Of SARS-CoV-2



Since i had JUST read the article last night from February it piqued my interest, turns out the samples analyzed according to a different article were collected in February though did not specifically mention possible symptoms.

Thered are a LOT of talk about variants in the media, so whats so special about this new variant compared to the seemingly endless stream of variant-aware articles so far?

Up until the discovery of the new variant, all other variants of interest or concern derive from a common ancestral virus, the B.1 strain that first made its appearance in early 2020. This is not so for the newly described variant. It evolved from an entirely different source, the A lineage, a finding that substantially expands our understanding of the repertoire of mutants we must be prepared to contend with in the months and years ahead.

The difference between the A and B lineages are three mutations that have come to define the B lineage that has displaced almost all others around the world. The common understanding is that a single amino acid change in the spike protein, the D614G mutation, increases both the ability of the virus to bind to the ACE2 receptor and, at the same time, stabilizes the interaction between the S1 and S2 protein of the spike, conferring an increase in transmissibility. I and others have suggested that the D614G substitution may not be all to the story of success for the B.1 variant. The B.1 linage viruses carry two additional mutations: the P323L mutation in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (NSP12), which is the key to virus replication and the production of viral mRNA and another mutation in the 5 prime untranslated region of the genome. Although hardly studied, both of these mutations may contribute, along with D614G, to the replication competence and transmissibility in the spike protein.

To me I find this fascinatingly worrying. Not only is this an apparently seperate lineage, suggesting it had evolved alongside the strains currently known independently starting very early one, but it ALSO happened to evolve a combination of practcially all the major changes we HAVE seen thus far combined...independently.

The Tanzanian variant (which is how I will denote it as it lacks official designation) teaches us that variants of interest and concern may lack all three defining mutations of the B.1 strain. Nonetheless, the new variant is of interest and of possible concern as it carries a number of mutations in the spike protein characteristic of other bonafide variants of concern from the B.1 lineage. Of the 13 mutations that distinguish the spike protein of the Tanzanian variant from the original Wuhan strain, eight are found in the B.1 family of variants. This is a remarkable illustration of convergent evolution. No one B.1 variant carries all these mutations, but each must confer some selective advantage to the A lineage variant. It is worth noting the five spike mutations unique to the Tanzanian virus, as they are likely to appear sooner or later in B.1 linage variants as well.

The observation of greatest concern is that the Tanzanian virus posses the E484K mutation found in many of the B.1 variants of concern. This mutation confers resistance to neutralizing antibodies of convalescent and vaccine plasma and also reduces the activity of some neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. This observation suggests that like other variants, this Tanzanian virus may heed resistant, at least partially, to the current generation of Covid-19 vaccines. The E484K mutation also increases the affinity of the spike protein for the ACE2 receptor, raising the possibility of increased transmissibility.  

Another mutation of note in the spike protein is P681H. This change occurs near the cleavage site between the S1 and S2 spike subproteins. We and others speculate that this mutation increases transmissibility by increasing the efficiency of the spike precursor S protein, a requirement for infectivity. 

All of the variants of concern carry a number of mutants in the N-terminal domain of the spike protein. Again, in an example of convergent evolution, four of these mutations are present in B.1 lineage variants, but not all together in any other single variant.

As no specific function is attributed as yet to the N-terminal domain, this set of mutations is thought to increase the ability of the virus to escape immune detection. I suspect that is not all there is to the story.

I ended up running out of room lol i guess i probably copy/pasted too much.of the article. To anyone else fascinated by the science around Covid- theres more info in the more recent forbes article linked.

This is not a fear mongering or doom porn thread , imtentionally anyway, but if indeed this is a complete seperate lineage from what we have been focused on it could be something to keep an eye on until we know more about whst exactly the effects off all of these changes are.


Also adding the instability in the region already, politically aswell as socioeconomically, and lack of attention... Theres no telling how far it has spread. We only identify a variant when we test for it, and many places simply arent testing enough. In my state. Of Virginia we are still only checking about 8% of knowm infections to identify the strain present... And some states even less. The same holds true in other countries. Again, not to say it is present elsewhere but the probability of it being likely rises with the more unknowm variables introduced.

Just found it interesting and though I would share

originally posted by: itswhatev
I ended up running out of room lol i guess i probably copy/pasted too much.of the article. To anyone else fascinated by the science around Covid- theres more info in the more recent forbes article linked.

This is not a fear mongering or doom porn thread , imtentionally anyway, but if indeed this is a complete seperate lineage from what we have been focused on it could be something to keep an eye on until we know more about whst exactly the effects off all of these changes are.


Also adding the instability in the region already, politically aswell as socioeconomically, and lack of attention... Theres no telling how far it has spread. We only identify a variant when we test for it, and many places simply arent testing enough. In my state. Of Virginia we are still only checking about 8% of knowm infections to identify the strain present... And some states even less. The same holds true in other countries. Again, not to say it is present elsewhere but the probability of it being likely rises with the more unknowm variables introduced.

Just found it interesting and though I would share

I do find this interesting however your link tonextstrain.org.../BMC-50046-20/2020
might need a primer with it. Cool stuff, though is this a predictor of data? as well as a compiler?

a reply to: putnam6
Thanks I dont believe they extrapolate any predictions of the data into the future as part of the compiling process, though i do know of several anaylst who have used their data specifically to do just that but more in a 'crowd sourced' info type of way. Tbh i probably should have not included nextstrain specifically only because I dont believe theyve yet included this 'Tanzanian' Variant into their model yet at all so doesnt have any direct help with this directly. That also highlights that the data therein is not 100% complete all the time, as theres often been a delay in actually varifying a seperate variant in general. I just personally find the ability to track its evolution as we go pretty incredible and thats been the best site ive found doing it


Eta: after some digging seems U.S is in the process atleast of ramping up sequencing which is a good step at least

Premier Medical Laboratory Services announces their launch of one of the nation's largest variant surveillance initiatives. Now conducting genomic sequencing of 6,000 specimens per day, PMLS plans to increase that number to 12,000 by May. 

Link to BusinessInsider Article

It's really in-depth and I'm a data nerd so I've spent a few hours messing around with Next Strain. Interesting that the dominant variants are different in Canada, the US, and Mexico even state to state. Georgia has a significant portion of G20 while Florida hardly has any at all and its dominant strain is C20. If I'm reading the charts and map correctly.

After seeing COVID's spread compared to other maladies on the site makes me believe the vaccines will never be totally effective and it will be floating around in varying degrees for a while. Good thing its lethality is so low or we would have really had issues. I read somewhere that rarely does a virus mutate and become more lethal? it usually becomes develops a higher transmission rate and either burns out or continually mutates and becomes a low-level concern. Is that correct?

a reply to: putnam6
In relation to the part about mutating to be less lethal more often, i arrogantly made a similar statement in the twitterverse earlier in thr year - tho in my defence, in good faith lol needless to say the quickest way to get a right answer is to state absolutes. Apparently thats a common misconception that only happens to show true in the longrun. Thats how it was explained to me atleast. So looking at the big picture of the next 5-10 years, the bigger the period of time one examines the more true the statement is. However when looking at it in relation to the current/present, the virus itself does not happen to mutate into a less lethal form in any greater avergae than a more lethal form. In the longrun the less lethal will prevail ultimately, most of the tme, because as we know the more lethal the quicker it 'burns itself out'. However that doesnt explicitly mean that the more lethal form wont burn theough a higher % of the population cause hugr spikes in the totals, before it does ultimately burn itself out.


My personal concern is with that aspect of it- when looking to history one.can notice a lot of parallells with the 1889-1894 "Russian flu" or "Asiatic flu". There actuallt have been a couple of researchers recently suggesting that could verywell have been a coronavirus. Lets hope not because , what they saw was a series of 'waves' , with spiking points happening multiple times with a roughly 1 year interval for slmost a decade. Some spikes were much higher than others , assumedly as the different variants. Being more lethal/less lethal continued to work their way through the population. Ultimately in the "big picture" , the less lethal strains likely prevailed and very well could be responsible for some of the common colds we cycle every year- Much like influenze. But, that was not before millions lost their lives in the intermediate as the more lethal strains burned themselves out.

Though we dont know for sure 100% what the disease or pathogen was so thst of course is speculation due to the symptoms never 100% matching any known causes at the time, aswell as some other oddities that more allign to what we now know coronaviruses are capable of.

a reply to: itswhatev


Thanks for the reply.

I guess the question is which variant is most lethal and how prevalent it is in a county or state. Of course among other variables, still, if your area or state's dominant variant is mild stands to reason there would even be a lesser chance for hospitalizations and deaths.

For example here in Georgia, the 20G is widespread but in Florida, 20C is by far the most dominant. What if Florida's 20C variant was way more lethal to senior citizens than Georgia's 20G. All this and more can skew the numbers.

a reply to: putnam6


Im inclined to believe the same, i think the biggedt hurdle in attempted to figure out what variants are present/dominant, not to mention how they may be different, is the ability to identify them to begin with. I believe (assume) that is likely the reason behind some of the drastic diffefences from state to state and how dominant it is.
It reminds me ironically of where we were this time last year in my opinion with just testing to begin with. I equated it to shining a light in a dark closet. What we did know was everywhere we shined a light, there it was. On one hand thats good because we were spotting it at all, however the realitu was we had no clue just what % we were seeing with that light. It couldve been 99% of all- it also couldve easily been about 10%. Our scope was so narrow we simply werent paying attention to the shadows, contrary to some very loud opinions at thw time. The same can still be said in regards to testing, my state never got its testing per capita above 25%.

In my opinion we are now facing a similar issue just with another facet of the problem. Are we catching all the strains? Very unlikely imo. Some states likely even less-so than others. However we are catching some which is good, it just cant possibly give us an accurate picture of the current situation. If the point When we start seeing drastic spikes in admissions followed by the inevitable spike in deaths 2 weeks later....that to me will be sadly the best indication we have beforehand that we have a new deadlier strain taking hold. If that even happens. I just dont have faith in our current ability to forecast that until its actually happening- unfortunatly.

originally posted by: itswhatev

To me I find this fascinatingly worrying. Not only is this an apparently seperate lineage, suggesting it had evolved alongside the strains currently known independently starting very early one, but it ALSO happened to evolve a combination of practcially all the major changes we HAVE seen thus far combined...independently.

My question is, what are the odds that this is just the newest release of the latest version from a Gain Of Function laboratory?

a reply to: Dalamax


Hmmm... Well... If i suspend my own doubt and entertain the idea hypothetically...


If I were a specific 'super power'(or wanted to be) and I wanted to use this unplanned pandemic (and i do personally believe thats what it is) to my advantage, i wouod first want to get as close to the original variant as possible to study. It would probably take me a while to either manipulate said virus to achieve whatever my evil goals were- how lomg that would take I have no idea.but i would think givem its propensity to mutate enough time wouldve passed...maybe...

Jumping ahead say I have achieved that goal but wanted tor elease a similar yet genetically differemt virus simultaneously with current outbreak, in hopes of it circulating unnoticed long enough to take root... Somewhere it wouldnt be picked up on maybe due to internal conflict or lack of scienctific capabilities.... I would probably pick Mozambique- just because of the recent conflicts and power struggles. However, Tanzania also givrn the former leaders stance...maybe.


Though that said I woild be taking a lot of risks of the virus mutating into something i did not want- along with riskimg inevitabley someone seeing it was altered- so that alone would be a hige risk of it all having been a waste of time. Assuming of course I had a specific goal in mind.


Is it possible? I think right now yes it is possible... I dont think, atleast given whats currently known, its very probable or likely though again the information available is extremelt limited. If someome did release a seperate form for amy specifoc intent, i think it would be much more likely to look like the variant from Tanzania vs any currently identified variant. Something essentially the same at the base but that diverges greatly from the phylogeny weve seen so far. Past that though, i think the chances are probably morw in favor of this being a seperate lineage that.got out in the and circulated in a smaller more contained population, and much like the initisl virus has only recently gained enough mutations to allow it to be communicable enough to show up elsewhere. Thats my best guess though, so possible? Sure but until we know more at the very least id say not very likely.



But... What do i know

Found a bit more information Researchers identify a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant (A.VOI.V2) in southern Africa

Though still from the beginning of April. Im really surprised there isnt more informatiom available yet as it really does seem to be quite am interesting development. It also, i would assume, would open the possibility of other variants showing up from seperate initial lineages aswell though the fact we havent seen any yet is a good sign i think.

From the link:

The scientists analyzed a total of 118 nasopharyngeal samples collected between June 2020 and February 2021. Using these samples, they generated 73 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes; of which, 14 were from B.1.351, B.1.1.7, and B.1.525 lineages; 44 were from C.16 lineage from Portugal; and 12 from other lineages. In addition, they identified a novel variant in three air passengers from Tanzania. Interestingly, three viral genomes isolated from these passengers displayed almost identical sequence. They temporarily designated the novel variant A.VOI.V2.

With further analysis, they observed that the novel variant has a total of 31 amino acid substitution mutations and 3 deletion mutations. Of these mutations, 11 out of 31 substitution mutations and all deletion mutations were found in the spike protein. By specifically analyzing the spike mutations, they identified 3 substitutions in the spike RBD, 2 substitutions nearby S1/S2 cleavage site, and 5 substitutions and 3 deletions in the spike N-terminal domain (NTD). Moreover, they observed that some of the NTD mutations are present in the antigenic supersite.

The study identifies a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant with multiple spike mutations. The majority of these mutations are also present in other VOCs and are known to increase viral infectivity and antibody resistance. These observations indicate that in response to certain selective pressures, these mutations are gradually evolving under positive selection and improving viral fitness.

Although the novel variant is identified only in three passengers from Tanzania, the scientists believe that more investigations are urgently needed to control its transmission within and out of the source country.  

Atleast we have the temporary name to keep an eye out for, though like the other variants if it continues to be a VOC likely will receive a different name. Im really curious to see what more if any info comes out about this one specifically

Thank you for the response, I’ll have to read it a few more times and probably this thread again at least twice before I can get a good sniff of the wind and my head pointed in the right direction.

I agree it is all quite curious and very interesting.

a reply to: itswhatev