Crime and the Pandemic

Lately, i've read a few articles from back in April/May praising the drop in crime during the pandemic. Pre-riots.

Seeing all the news lately about shootings and some fairly violent crimes...and ya know...months of rioting. I was curious how that may have changed. I wasn't able to find as many recent stories, but what i did find was kind of interesting.
So to start with.
US Murder Spike in Big Cities Explained

1) The pandemic has really messed things up: Looming over absolutely every discussion about 2020 is the Covid-19 pandemic. That’s no different for discussions about crime and violence. This year is very unusual, with many forced to stay at home and living in fear of a new, deadly virus. That could lead to all sorts of unpredictable behavior that experts don’t understand yet, and that might take us years to explain.

2) Depolicing led to more violence: In response to the 2014 and 2015 waves of Black Lives Matter protests against police brutality, officers in some cities pulled back, either out of fear that any act of aggressive policing could get them in trouble or in a counter-protest against Black Lives Matter. While protesters have challenged the crime-fighting effectiveness of police, there is a sizable body of evidence that more, and certain kinds of, policing do lead to less crime. Given that, some experts said that depolicing in response to protests could have led to more violence — what some in years past called the “Ferguson effect,” after the 2014 protests in Ferguson, Missouri, over the police shooting of Michael Brown, and also seen in Baltimore after the 2015 killing of Freddie Gray.

3) Lack of trust in police led to more violence: In response to the “Ferguson effect” in 2015, some experts offered a different view of what was happening: Maybe people had lost trust in the police and, as a result, they relied more on street justice and other illegal activities to resolve interpersonal disputes — an interpretation of “legal cynicism,” explained well in Jill Leovy’s Ghettoside and supported by some empirical research. Perhaps Floyd’s murder and the ensuing protests led to a similar phenomenon in some cities this year.

4) More guns led to more gun violence: There’s been a massive surge in gun buying this year, seemingly in response to concerns about personal safety during a pandemic. And as the research has shown time and time again, more guns mean more gun violence. A new, preliminary study from researchers at UC Davis already concluded that gun purchases led to more gun violence than there would be otherwise through May this year. That could have further exacerbated homicide increases.

5) Overwhelmed hospitals led to more deaths: One way to explain a flat or dropping violent crime rate as homicides rise is that the violent crime was more deadly than usual. With health care systems across the US at times close to capacity or at capacity due to Covid-19, maybe hospitals and their staff had less ability to treat violent crime victims — increasing the chances they died this year. That could translate to more deaths, and homicides, even if violent crime remained flat or declined.

6) Idle hands led to more violence: Throughout the pandemic, a lot of people have been bored — with forms of entertainment, from restaurants to movie theaters, closed down. Schools are shut down too, millions are now unemployed. Other support programs that can prevent violence were shuttered due to the lockdowns. All of that could have led to conflict, and possibly more crime and violence. But, experts cautioned, this is all speculative, with little evidence so far to support it.

7) A bad economy led to more violence: With the economy tanking this year, some people maybe were pushed to desperate acts to make ends meet. Disruptions in the drug market, as product and customers dried up in a bad economy, may have led to more violent competition over what’s left. The bad economy also left local and state governments with less funding for social supports that can keep people out of trouble. All of that, and more, could have contributed to more crime and violence — but this, too, is extremely speculative.

Another possibility: None of these explanations is right. With limited data in strange times, it wouldn’t be surprising if it turns out we have no idea what’s going on right now. “We can bet on it being unpredictable,” Doleac said.

So a nice summarized list. Notice, protests are not mentioned at all. Also, even in the depolicing section, you may notice this little caveat

there is a sizable body of evidence that more, and certain kinds of, policing do lead to less crime.

This is about the teeniest, tiniest acknowledgement you could possibly make. You can really tell it was hard for the author to write that.

Next from the same article

In Chicago, as well as some other cities, the apparent increase in homicides began before the protests over the police killing of George Floyd. And in some cases, as in Chicago, the spike abruptly ended almost as quickly as it started, only to surge again weeks later, after the protests had died down. So it’s hard to blame only the protests for a spike — especially because we know other factors likely played a role, such as the start of summer, when crime tends to go up, and the end of stay-at-home orders.

Assurances that the protests, in fact, are not responsible for the increase in murders.

Next, we've got this article from july 20th

www.safewise.com...

Gun violence wreaked havoc in the Big Apple for the third straight weekend, with 22 incidents that left 24 victims. On Saturday alone, there were 10 people shot and one killed.

Shootings in NYC have increased by 66.8% year over year through July 17. The number of shooting victims has jumped 77.5%.

At least 160 people were killed and more than 500 were wounded by gun violence over the Fourth of July weekend.

As of July 20, there have been a total of 310 mass shootings across the nation. That’s a 34% increase compared to the same time period last year, and 74% of 2019’s total of 417 mass shootings.

There have also been more than 22,000 deaths by gun violence and over 19,000 injuries nationwide. 

Some research suggests a link between pandemic-led surges in gun sales and the country’s ongoing rash of shooting incidents. Between March and May, there were 64% more guns sold in the US—that’s over 2 million more guns than were sold during the same months in previous years.

This one doesn't bother with the 'well rounded approach' and goes straight to the it's because 'people are buying more guns' angle.

Not much to say here really. I think that speaks for itself. Just another variation of the 'guns kills people' argument. How can you even respond to nonsense like that?


Next we've got this one from the new york times(sorry), that focuses on the domestic violence/lack of faith in police angle. Again, avoiding any mention of riots.
NYtimes link, (non-paywalled)

Some research suggests that a loss of trust in law enforcement can cause citizens to be reluctant to contact the police, and people may be more likely to take matters into their own hands to resolve disputes.

This is gonna be a long one i guess.

Continued below.

continued from the Nytimes article

These numbers do not tell a story that supports any ideological side of the debate around policing,” Mr. Goff said. “What it supports at most is a need for rigorous curiosity about a vital issue.”

Ms. Doleac also says it is too early to draw any firm conclusions: “This is such a weird year in so many dimensions, and it’s going to take us a while to figure out what caused any of these differences in crime.

Once again, they assure that the debates around policing are not responsible for any increase in crime and again skirt around the issue much like the first article.

So, one interesting thing i found repeated throughout, burglaries and assaults are down.

Now, that's hard to believe, what it seems to be is, reports of burglaries and assaults are down, because multiple areas where these crimes are occuring have been depoliced at the behest of those committing these crimes.

The level of misdirection, and bull# in these articles is troubling enough, the hesitancy of these quoted 'sources of authority' to commit to any explanation and to clearly skirt around mentioning any possibility that the recent 'unrest' might have anything to with any increases in crime that's heavily associated with rioting makes you wonder, who or what has them so hesitant to even mention the slightest chance it might be related.

Have Ahmaud Arberys gone up? Oops I meant armed robberies. If armed robberies are completely down, you may know why the ritualistic, "coded" death of Ahmaud Arbery happened.

a reply to: FlukeSkywalker

Please do explain what was ritualistic and coded about that killing.

Double-plus good OP! Confused kids? Just remember - “words are violence” yet “arson and looting are good trouble”!

Glad that helped make sense of this clown world /sarc

originally posted by: dug88
Once again, they assure that the debates around policing are not responsible for any increase in crime and again skirt around the issue much like the first article.

The level of misdirection, and bull# in these articles is troubling enough, the hesitancy of these quoted 'sources of authority' to commit to any explanation and to clearly skirt around mentioning any possibility that the recent 'unrest' might have anything to with any increases in crime that's heavily associated with rioting makes you wonder, who or what has them so hesitant to even mention the slightest chance it might be related.

Yep Yep

Gonna miss ATS a Lot when she closes down!!

S&F ... one of two excellent OPs I've seen this a.m.

originally posted by: IAMALLYETALLIAM
a reply to: FlukeSkywalker

Please do explain what was ritualistic and coded about that killing.

It represented a signal that armed robberies were going to be a thing of the past because of the pandemic/mask nonsense, which is all part of a secret, global facial/body movement recognition system being tested. The death of someone whose name sounds like armed robbery was absolutely part of the script.