Please forgive me for not selectively responding to each post, there are a number of great ones, so I will respond to all (so far) with this post.
Am I afraid? No. The OP was sarcastic and intended to point out the utter progressive lunacy we are seeing as each day dawns. Today there will be
something new to panic about.
Am I worried about running out of food? No. I raise beef cattle for cripes sakes! No food shortage here! And, as far as I'm concerned there won't
be any beef shortage if I have anything to say about it. Which brings me to the point of the OP, and the cited article about there being a looming
beef shortage. Here's the problem with that...
All the stories about meat shortages (beef, pork, chicken, etc.) are generally based on the same underpinning theme...that the processing houses are
closed due to the virus (of course) so they can't get their animals processed to go to market. Okay, well, hold them back until the processing houses
open then! You see, this is where the argument falls apart and becomes fear mongering. But wait! Some producers can't afford to do that, FCD!
(yes, I was talking to myself, rhetorically of course). Okay, now we're getting to the heart of the matter. Well let's look at this a little more
closely, shall we?
When demand is high, then wholesale (on the hoof) prices are high, right? In a sane world, the answer to this question would be 'yes', but we're not
in a 'sane world' right now. So, the answer is 'no', wholesale beef prices are at an all time low right now. Consequently, a producer can wait until
prices come back up, or...he can dig a great big hole in the back forty and bulldoze all his product into it (not really, but you get the idea). I
mean, those are really the only two choices, right? You'd sure think so by reading some of the fear mongering! Now, when I say 'wait', I'm not
talking about years here, but rather a month or two, or even three. (this could be a really long post, so I'll try to be brief). If your margin is
so thin you can't weather a storm like this then you're not really in the cattle business, you're in the commodities business, and you're not on a
cattle ranch, you're on a feedlot. (Nothing against you feedlot guys, just sayin'). And maybe you should go into town and get a job, like maybe on
Wall St. See where this is headed?
Now, I could go on a multi-paragraph rant about quality vs. price, but I'll spare you. I think we can all agree, the quality of beef you get at the
supermarket is awful compared to one or two decades ago. Don't even get me started on the whole "Angus Beef" thing! What you get in the store is
flavorless, mass produced, well, crap...honestly. And why is this? Because people are cheap, and they're willing to eat crap...so long as it's
cheap. SOoooo...what you are witnessing as a "shortage" is all that crap being purged from the market. And the "bottleneck" you keep hearing about
is preventing more of that crap from flooding back into the market. So, at the risk of being too verbose, allow me to paint a little picture of what
this all looks like from behind the scenes, let you in on a dirty little secret if you will.
This may shock you, so just be advised. On a normal, sane, day in a good market, a cattleman will take an animal to market and be lucky to get just
over one (1) dollar per pound for that animal. Fortunes are won and lost in the digits AFTER the decimal point. You read that right, $1.00/lb. So,
why does steak cost $16/lb?, and why does ground beef cost $3.99/lb (or more). Somebody is sure makin' some money, but it damn sure ain't the
rancher. Sure, there's waste, but surprisingly little when you consider collateral industries like the leather for the seats in that Beamer or on
that sofa, pet related products, beauty products, adhesives, etc. The retailers would have you think this is a standard 40% +/- waste model (i.e.
hanging carcass weight is 60% of on the hoof weight), but it's not. Hell, they even try to convince us cattlemen of the same thing!
The only way you can get to $16/lb for a steak is through greed. Yeah, there's labor, and trucking, ground leases, storefront and refrigeration, but
don't forget these things amortize over millions of tons of beef, not just one 1,000 lb. steer. Those numbers are big, but are they worth 16x,
1,600%, of the base product???? I'll answer; No, they're not.
So, you tell me. Is there a beef shortage? OR, is there a glut in the greed market?
Answer seems pretty clear to me, how about you?
edit on 4/29/2020 by Flyingclaydisk because: (no reason given)
edit on 4/29/2020 by Flyingclaydisk because: (no reason
given)