NY + NJ % of total deaths is rising

originally posted by: Serdgiam
a reply to: Byrd

How do you feel something like a full population lockdown will affect gaining that "herd immunity?"

In a positive manner. It gives hospitals and health care facilities more time and equipment and resources to treat each patient and lower the risk to health care professionals.

It gives time to develop better treatments (we're scrambling like mad, and the data of successes is being pushed out as fast as they can write it... but reviewing and matching the data to make sure it's solid isn't happening and can't happen for awhile.) So when someone falls ill, they get the best treatment (as decided by global research) rather than "we think this is the best based on the last paper/tweet/tv show someone encountered.

It protects the vulnerable. They deserve to live. Some of those vulnerable ones are doctors and nurses and paramedics and police and fire fighters and military personnel. And grocery store clerks.

In a "for instance," what would the impact have been if we kept elementary schools open? That probably gets a visceral response from some, but I think its a valid question.

You would kill a lot of teachers. Some teachers have already died from Covid-19.

Because of low pay and other issues, new teachers don't stay in the profession long. Many elementary school Master Teachers (experienced with over 10 years at the job) are over age 40 and not a few are over age 50 - and that's in the higher risk category. It's a stressful job. Class sizes are large, and when a teacher dies/leaves/falls ill you have to bring in substitutes or increase class sizes. And that greatly increases a teacher's chance of a hospital stay or death. Don't know if you've had a recent hospital bill, but we have. It was $150k for a 10 day stay.

And who else is required in order to run a school? Bus drivers, cafeteria personnel, secretaries, aides, janitors, crossing guards... All of them have a similar risk and outcome (hospital/death.)

How many times do kids have to live through the death of their teacher or principal or bus drivers or cafeteria staff?

Would you walk into a job with low pay and a lot of stress and a high chance of a serious illness that will result in you having a hospital bill that's two to six times your annual paycheck?

Maybe you would.

It would be a deal breaker for most folks.

The more Ive thought about it, the more Ive felt that all this time, energy, resources, and money would have been better focused in designing a system that enables us to very quickly scale our medical system to handle large surges. Its been a continuous problem for quite a few years.

That was what the emergency planning departments did ... before funding cuts and big outcries of "downsize the government." But such an effort needs to be coordinated on a national basis so that resources can be moved as needed and plans for all sorts of things can be evaluated and established. At one time there was a national pandemic plan (the 2005 version of the plan) and there was even a 70 page plan available from the previous administration

A long time ago in a galaxy far far away, I was part of some of the exercises.

Let me add something else scary... it's now tornado season and will soon be hurricane season. Natural disasters and seasonal disease outbreaks (West Nile, etc) keep happening even during a pandemic. So... imagine the "let the herd immunity" concept taking over during a time when the US is hit by a set of tornadoes and a large hurricane (like happened last year.)

We need to have a good national plan and coordination... but the time to have it was last year or the year before. Doing it "on the fly" is just reactive and can lead to some fatal mistakes.

originally posted by: Serdgiam
a reply to: Byrd

How do you feel something like a full population lockdown will affect gaining that "herd immunity?"

In a "for instance," what would the impact have been if we kept elementary schools open? That probably gets a visceral response from some, but I think its a valid question.

Forgot to put the other side of the coin: "parents, you're going to send your kids to a place where one or more kids will have a disease that has killed children and has hospitalized others - guaranteed."

Speaking as a parent (and grandparent) I want schools to be safe, to not be full of rampant disease (yes, I know they're germy places... I was a school teacher at one time) and I know kids bring germs home to families. But that doesn't mean I want to send my kids to measles parties.

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: Serdgiam
a reply to: Byrd

How do you feel something like a full population lockdown will affect gaining that "herd immunity?"

In a "for instance," what would the impact have been if we kept elementary schools open? That probably gets a visceral response from some, but I think its a valid question.

Forgot to put the other side of the coin: "parents, you're going to send your kids to a place where one or more kids will have a disease that has killed children and has hospitalized others - guaranteed."

Speaking as a parent (and grandparent) I want schools to be safe, to not be full of rampant disease (yes, I know they're germy places... I was a school teacher at one time) and I know kids bring germs home to families. But that doesn't mean I want to send my kids to measles parties.

Do you feel that same way every time you starp your kids into their car seats?

Lots of kids are going to die in car accidents - guaranteed.


But than again humanity has had decades to compartmentalize those deaths so its different.

originally posted by: Scapegrace
I’ve been keeping track of New York and New Jersey’s covid19 deaths for several weeks. Their share of all U.S. covid19 deaths has noticeably risen the last few days to 56.6 percent as of April 16. The two states have had about half the nation’s deaths since I started regularly checking the national stats.

Oddly, as the death toll rises in NY and NJ, their share of known covid19 cases appears to be declining. I’ve seen it as high as 48 percent of total cases, whereas they stood at 44.4 percent of all cases yesterday.

I have no idea what could account for this. Could it simply be that more people have been infected for weeks at this point, hence are dying in greater numbers after a long struggle? Whatever the reason, it appears the recovery rate is lower than it was. Does anyone know how the recovery rates in NY and NJ compare to other states?

This is not a surprise, death is a lagging indicator.

It takes people 2 - 3 weeks on average to die from the virus.

a reply to: Byrd

We might have "irreconcilable differences" with regards to lockdowns and "herd immunity," so Ill just skip it

Thats certainly a fair point about teachers, though I can see some pretty easy ways around it.

Im glad you brought up our "standard" ways of emergency preparedness! Even there, it seems we dropped the ball, and have been for years.

Which is why I think itd be good to go ahead and examine that, particularly in the light of using traditional methods supplemented by all the new tools available to us.

Im strongly biased towards Systems Analysis, so thats where my mind naturally goes with anything regarding scalability. Im sure there are other approaches as well, and wouldnt mind seeing discussion about it beyond the context of "ye olde ways."

With regards to something like elementary schools; Do you believe it would be a good idea to do something like shift the school year so that they were never in school during any of the typical "sick seasons?"

Naturally, at this point, there are a lot of emotions on the topic.. But actually defining and planning our approach based on that seems like it could be extraordinarily detrimental.

I suspect the discussion on that aspect in particular would be vastly different at this time last year. Even further, the perspective on such things, in general, seems to have shifted pretty dramatically even since I was a kid (30 some odd years ago). In the past half year, its all been limited *solely* to the context of SARS-CoV-2. While I can understand that, Im not convinced it actually leads to long term, or even short term, benefits when dealing with issues that span far beyond the scope of a single infectious disease.

Im not sure that we see the results in actually having a healthier population from that shift either. It seems like we keep hammering it home in spite of that, though I have seen some changes in recent years when actually talking about things like diet, exercise, even meditation. But in my experience, they still tend to be framed very, very strangely.

originally posted by: Serdgiam
a reply to: Byrd
Thats certainly a fair point about teachers, though I can see some pretty easy ways around it.

...such as...? (professional curiosity)

Im glad you brought up our "standard" ways of emergency preparedness! Even there, it seems we dropped the ball, and have been for years.

Which is why I think itd be good to go ahead and examine that, particularly in the light of using traditional methods supplemented by all the new tools available to us.

There's a lot of people doing this now. I didn't cite some of the many papers I've noted recently on this.

Im strongly biased towards Systems Analysis, so thats where my mind naturally goes with anything regarding scalability. Im sure there are other approaches as well, and wouldnt mind seeing discussion about it beyond the context of "ye olde ways."

My last (final) job was as a systems analyst, so I'm up for discussing it (I'm old as dirt and have held a number of jobs.)

With regards to something like elementary schools; Do you believe it would be a good idea to do something like shift the school year so that they were never in school during any of the typical "sick seasons?"

(chuckle)

Speaking as a former teacher, i would love to know when the "typical sick season" is. Kids are sick year around.

I suspect the discussion on that aspect in particular would be vastly different at this time last year. Even further, the perspective on such things, in general, seems to have shifted pretty dramatically even since I was a kid (30 some odd years ago). In the past half year, its all been limited *solely* to the context of SARS-CoV-2. While I can understand that, Im not convinced it actually leads to long term, or even short term, benefits when dealing with issues that span far beyond the scope of a single infectious disease.

I remember (vividly!) the polio epidemics, the measles outbreaks, chicken pox outbreaks, and so forth -- and stories from my parents. So I have a bigger personal information pool that forms part of my understanding.

This is only the first of many pandemics to come.

Im not sure that we see the results in actually having a healthier population from that shift either. It seems like we keep hammering it home in spite of that, though I have seen some changes in recent years when actually talking about things like diet, exercise, even meditation. But in my experience, they still tend to be framed very, very strangely.

(wry smile) To quote the "Tears in the Rain" speech from Blade Runner: I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain The things I've seen weren't cured by diet, exercise, and meditation. It took a lot of changes in foods, food supply, culture, and society as well as a lot of changes in our laws and a boatload of science (plus positive attitude toward science) to make us a healthier nation; not just one or two things.

We live in a very, very complicated world. Don't be fooled into thinking there are simple answers.

originally posted by: hangedman13
First off people, its NYC that is leading in cases not the rest of NY. Very important distinction, especially in terms of tracking this virus.

Thank you, I’m pretty tired of telling people that there are over 20 million residents of NY who live outside the NYC metro area. Of course a city the size of NYC with multiple international transportation hubs and a super high population density.

Second I'm calling into question NY cases in general. Cuomo sent patients upstate about two weeks ago. Are those cases being counted as NYC cases or are they padding the numbers by counting them in the counties they were sent to as well? Its no secret that even before the quarantine the state budget was shot, now with a chance to acquire fed funds. I would not put it past the Cuomo administration to do that.

The last I saw it was just one patient transferred from the City up to Albany Medical Center and they were counted as a NYC case.

a reply to: Byrd

...such as...? (professional curiosity)

Plastic bubbles, of course

The first would probably be some kind of remote video. Not ideal, for sure, and discipline would be.. uh.. difficult. But, Im really of the mind that that age is where the best foundation is built for "herd immunity." Im trying to use a bit of intuition, coupled with some research, but the reality is that (as I repeat, dont worry.. I wont say it again with you lol) Im not an epidemiologist or doctor.

Im trying to think in the context of Long Term success in these things.. And Im not sure that what we are doing now is the right path to become habituated with.

There's a lot of people doing this now. I didn't cite some of the many papers I've noted recently on this.

Well.. Dont hold out!

To my mind, it seems that the biggest hurdle is simply workers. Equipment, PPE, etc. is all relatively easy to stock up on.. But meeting the increased workload, ideally while limiting stress of healthworkers (I know..), is quite tricky.

Just dealing locally even seems kind of straightforward. Meaning, if a pile up swamps one particular hospital, its "easy" to both call in extra workers from areas close-by, as well as send other patients to other facilities. But, once that starts to happen over a wide enough area.. The direct problem (SARS-CoV-2 in this case) all of a sudden makes all the other "standard" problems (like a heart attack, or "normal" pneumonia) much tougher to tackle than they would normally be.

My last (final) job was as a systems analyst, so I'm up for discussing it (I'm old as dirt and have held a number of jobs.)

Well, my own software (which Ill have to write again) basically chooses the "best" solution for a given problem. This is accomplished by utilizing hardware that is specifically designed for the purpose (in my applications), but it is very.. versatile. I really dont know enough about actual day-to-day operations to adapt it to the medical field though.

One platform that focuses more on the medical side is CytoSolve. Though, it isnt for rapid response in these respects.

On a semi-related note, I really wish they would have called it something other than "Systems Analysis." But, they didnt ask me..

(chuckle)

Speaking as a former teacher, i would love to know when the "typical sick season" is. Kids are sick year around.

That.. is a solid point!

I was thinking more in terms of "flu season." Im just not the biggest fan of calling it such, as it tends to be when a lot of stuff starts flying around.

I suspect that if folks get used to the idea that lockdowns are "The Way" to handle outbreaks.. We might be looking at a slow degradation (specifically over generations) of immune strength in our society. If thats the path we are going to go down (I do not approve, but Im just me), it might be prudent to start looking at ways to avoid disruptions as much as possible. Id say thats one of my biggest concerns of a lot of this; forming habits/expectations that may be extraordinarily detrimental in 50-100 years.

This is only the first of many pandemics to come.

Oh yes, we absolutely agree there. I mean, pandemics are quite common throughout history. But, with everything from modern travel to decreasing overall health.. Its a big concern. Thats why my mind goes where it does: What can we do now to lessen the impact later, specifically over generations?

Even just in the past 20 years, we have been quite "lucky" in the west. There have been some very nasty outbreaks, from Ebola to H5N1. I am concerned that things like widespread, broad spectrum vaccination problems, massive antiobiotic use, and even excessive disinfecting may end up exacerbating this into extremely destructive events.

(wry smile) To quote the "Tears in the Rain" speech from Blade Runner: I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain The things I've seen weren't cured by diet, exercise, and meditation. It took a lot of changes in foods, food supply, culture, and society as well as a lot of changes in our laws and a boatload of science (plus positive attitude toward science) to make us a healthier nation; not just one or two things.

We live in a very, very complicated world. Don't be fooled into thinking there are simple answers.

Oh, absolutely. Each is one piece in a much larger puzzle.

The goal in systems analysis, at least my take on the modern subject, is to find how these things all relate.

If that can be simplified into a predictable form, then the rest starts to fall into place. Thats basically where my own work resides.

I redesigned all of the tech in a "home" from the ground up (Im goin somewhere here ). Many different, seemingly disparate parts that create a whole. Each piece needed to be designed specifically for this purpose, however the software that connected it all was surprisingly simple. Though, admittedly clever. Literally everything in the system not only relied on everything else, it adjusted every piece (in real time) to achieve the most efficient response to changes. With something like the thermostat, it was to keep that temp static through changes, and it could utilize and leverage every other piece in the system to achieve it. A lot of the results were relatively intuitive, but many absolutely were not.

So, in this respect, its more about figuring out the algorithm/learned database access in how many different pieces relate rather than necessarily taking and examining each and every piece. I guess in some respects, it could be called "holistic," but with a very, very strong focus on "how things change," and if that can be simplified & generalized itself (it can!).

Then, it becomes a matter of figuring that process out, rather than every single individual piece. Each piece thats added is simply incorporated into the System. "New" events are the same.

Might seem off topic to some, but even if one thinks such an achievement is impossible, I think its "easy" to see what value that might have in general, with medical apparatus response in specific. Im more than a little biased though